Week 10 WR/CB Matchups For Fantasy Football: Target Chris Olave & Tetairoa McMillan
Fantasy

Week 10 WR/CB Matchups For Fantasy Football: Target Chris Olave & Tetairoa McMillan

Chris Allen identified the WR/CB matchups to target and avoid in fantasy football for Week 10.

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My youngest’s soccer season wrapped up with the parents-vs-kids game. Of course, your boy had two goals (one on a PK) and two assists as the parents came back for the win. But five minutes in, another dad and I were standing next to each other, trying to figure out who was supposed to cover who. The kids knew exactly where to be. We had it sorted by halftime (kind of), but not before the kids snuck a few goals past us.

That’s just about where we are with defensive matchups after the trade deadline. A couple of receivers moved teams. Some secondaries have new faces. However, the nine weeks of data still count for something. But this week, it's worth checking who's covering who before we trust our starting rosters. Anyway, here are the best and worst matchups for Week 10.

WR/CB Matchups to Target in Fantasy Football for Week 10 

Week 9 Recap: Luther Burden (WR6), Matthew Golden (WR3). Caleb Williams made it look easy on Sunday night, at least for a quarter. But Burden now has a 25+% target share in three of four games with Williams back. And the matchup for Golden played out about as expected. But it didn’t matter because Jordan Love had all the answers to let both Golden and Christian Watson turn in WR1 finishes. If not for facing the Vikings (with Kirk Cousins!), I’d probably have them both in this section for Week 10.

Tetairoa McMillan at Saints

Betting on any Panthers’ receiver is like taking on a two-leg parlay: 1) Bryce Young needs to be in rhythm, 2) the WR has to command targets. Luckily, Young showed signs of the first leg against the Broncos in Week 9.

Despite heading into the game with a reworked offensive line, Carolina kept Young’s pressure rate to 34.9% (second-lowest on the season). But the other remedy was that HC Dave Canales had Young firing the ball out at an average of 2.56 seconds (quickest of the season). On top of using no-huddle at the fifth-highest rate in Week 9 (14.5%), Young looked like the early-season version of himself. And, even during the slump, Tetairoa McMillan stood out as the preferred target.

  • Target Rate (since Week 7, when kept clean): 28.2% (McMillan), 14.1% (Coker)
  • Air Yard Share: 38.5%, 13.8%
  • Targets per Route Run: 31.7%, 16.7%

All of the talk about Jalen Coker out-targeting McMillan went out the window once the offense broke down. Over the last three weeks, McMillan has out-targeted Coker 23 to 14. Even worse for Coker, his catchable target rate has plummeted to 54%. Meanwhile, Young and McMillan have continued to click. 

To be fair to Coker, both Browns’ WRs racked up over 15 PPR points against New Orleans last week. And it was KC Concepcion, a Coker-like receiver, who found the end zone. But seeing other WR1s with route-running chops glide by the Saints’ defenders (Malik Nabers – 28.5 PPR points, Justin Jefferson – 18.8, etc.), McMillan has the runway to be back on our fantasy radars in Week 10.

Chris Olave vs. Panthers

Just a quick peek behind the curtain. I run an independent model that parses through WR usage, defensive fronts and coverage, and QB tendencies to narrow my pool each week. McMillan and Chris Olave bubbled to the top. I didn’t connect they were playing in the same game until after I penciled them in for this section (it’s Week 10, give me some grace). Anyway, even if the two weren’t facing each other, Olave’s utilization would put him in consideration for being an upside play in Week 10.

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I only clipped part of Olave’s UR game logs, but Tyler Shough’s WR1 has been at or above a 25% target rate in every game this season. He’s led the Saints’ pass catchers in air yards in all but one game. And Shough isn’t just keeping things short for Olave. Of the 26 WRs with a 20+% target rate, Olave has the fifth-highest receiving aDOT. Coincidentally, receivers of Olave’s archetype have been the Panthers’ biggest problem.

To go with Carolina being unable to generate pressure up front (seventh-lowest pressure rate over last four games), the Panthers’ secondary has also let receivers slip by for large gains. They’ve allowed the fourth-most passing TDs over the last month over the same time span with just one WR1 falling below 15 PPR points since Week 5. The only thing better than rostering Olave right now is having him and McMillan going into the weekend.

Sneaky WR/CB Matchups for Fantasy Football Week 10

Recap: Rashee Rice (WR34), Rome Odunze (WR14), Josh Downs (WR55), Denzel Boston (WR15). I already talked about the Bears’ passing situation. Expect to see Odunze in this section again later. Rice’s routes and targets were up from the previous week, but his 0.14 aDOT (per TruMedia, not a typo) and Patrick Mahomes’ elbow injury didn’t help. Speaking of target depth, Cleveland’s QBs have been targeting Boston at shallower depths over the last two weeks (10.8 and 10.2 air yards compared to his 17.2-yard aDOT in Weeks 1-7). Hopefully, that trend sticks, making his fantasy output less volatile. 

DJ Moore at Jets

One of the talking points from the Bills win over Minnesota on MNF was their second-half adjustments. They were already using formations with 2+ TEs on 58.5% of their plays. HC Joe Brady shot that rate up to 78.9% over the course of the third and fourth quarters. But instead of having them block, he flooded the Vikings’ secondary with TEs and had Josh Allen rifling the ball out. Essentially, Buffalo had to pivot from its original plan, which favored DJ Moore.

  • Target Rate (First Half): 27.8%
  • Air Yard Share: 65.3%
  • Obvious Passing Situation Target Rate: 60.0%

On the one hand, Allen threw to Moore just once after halftime. However, he still led the Bills in air yards and end zone targets. Plus, the Jets do not have a defense that forces a team to adjust. From Brock Bowers (28.2 PPR points) to Caleb Douglas (21.0) to DeMario Douglas (19.6) and to Denzel Boston (13.6), HC Aaron Glenn’s secondary has allowed floor and ceiling games to WR1s (yes, Bowers is a WR1), putting Moore in a great position to overachieve on his WR2 ranking.

Jakobi Meyers at Titans

We’re two games out of the Jaguars’ bye, and Jakobi Meyers at least has WR3 appeal given his usage.

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Jacksonville used more multi-TE formations coming out of the bye (39.6% and 44.6%), limiting the number of WRs on the field at the same time. But in those groupings, Meyers and Parker Washington played the most snaps. Plus, Meyers has the same number of looks as Washington out of those concepts, with over half of Meyers’ targets coming on routes to the MoF. And the Titans (now without their star safety) are one of two teams giving up over 100 YPG to receivers on passes to the middle. But there’s one obvious problem about any Jags receiver.

  • Jacksonville PROE: -4.6%, 25th
  • Jacksonville Plays per Game: 58.8, 28th
  • Trevor Lawrence Dropbacks per Game: 30.8, 27th 

Trevor Lawrence has thrown the ball 88 times in the second half in 2026. That’s the sixth fewest of any QB to play every game to this point since 2017. Jacksonville has trailed by a TD or more on just 72 of their plays (15.3% of their total play volume), which is the fifth-lowest mark in the league. Without a reason to fight back, Meyers’ downfall would be because of the team allowing their running game to close out a lopsided game against the Titans on Sunday.

WR/CB Matchups to Avoid for Fantasy Football Week 10

Recap: Michael Wilson (WR29). I have no idea how Wilson was able to play through a neck fracture. However, Wilson did still command a 28% target share in his final game. But the trade-off was short-area looks, as Gardner Minshew’s average time to throw was 2.35 seconds. Without the downfield attempts, utilization like this would only be viable in PPR leagues as a floor option.

Drake London vs. Chiefs

Kansas City is already the worst secondary for a WR to face per our DvP tool. They’ve allowed only 2 TDs to a receiver all season. And just one 100-yard game in nine weeks. But the other aspect of Drake London’s fantasy outlook is Michael Penix. Cincinnati highlighted his issue to play out of structure in Madrid.

  • When Kept Clean: 55.1% (12th) [Passing Success Rate and Rank], 0.23 (17th) [EPA per DB]
  • When Pressured: 18.0% (29th), -0.53 (25th)

While the Chiefs’ defensive front ranks around the league average in pressure rate—22nd since Week 3)—they’re 15th in rate of quick pressures. They’re also blitzing in passing situations on a third of their plays. So if the situation looks bad for Penix, the same can be said for his WR1.

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