Week 6 Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet: What To Do With Derrick Henry? 'Gross' Weather And More

Honestly, I've been doing Fridays wrong.

In the past, I've used it as a day to relax. It's the weekend! Well, at least the start of it. However, we all know how much chaos awaits us on Sunday. And the news and information we'll need to set our rosters doesn't stop. I need all the help I can get. Luckily, the crew here at Fantasy Life, like the NFL, doesn't stop either.

Each week, I'll assemble as much fresh content as possible in a one-stop shop setup to get you ready for Sunday. Projections, rankings, weather reports, and even a look ahead at players you should pick up now before Tuesday's waiver run. We've got it all. But first, let's get into the news from yesterday.

Actually FIRST first, let me just give you the plug: All this stuff that's paywalled on the site can be unlocked just by downloading the Comet browser — which is like an assistant more than a chatbot. FantasyLife.com/comet will give you all the info and the steps needed to getting 12 months of FL+ for free.

NOW on to the...

The Latest and Greatest

I used to brace myself for the Friday news dump. However, like you, we’ve been tracking most of the big stories heading into the weekend. The health of San Francisco’s offense was chief among them.

The clues were there earlier in the week. Brock Purdy opened the team’s preparations for the Buccaneers with a DNP. HC Kyle Shanahan indicated on Wednesday that Ricky Pearsall’s knee injury would keep him sidelined for at least another game. At the same time, Mac Jones got in limited sessions, leading to his second start in as many weeks. Even with Jauan Jennings potentially returning, Jones will need more than one WR to operate the offense. Danny had a good idea as to who fantasy managers could pick up before Sunday morning.

“Kendrick Bourne (15%) busted out for 24.2 FP this week (WR6) behind a 25% target share from Mac Jones. If Ricky Pearsall and Jauan Jennings remain out, Bourne is worth another go.”

Also, on the flip side of that same game, Rachaad White will get another start for Tampa’s backfield with Bucky Irving out. The veteran RB performed well in the Bucs’ Week 5 shootout in Seattle, but if anyone has concerns that his results were a fluke, Dwain expanded on his ranking of the RB2 ahead of kickoff.

“White dominated the Buccaneers' backfield in Week 5 with Bucky Irving (foot/shoulder) sidelined. The veteran back handled a mouth-watering 81% of the snaps, notching an 88 Utilization Score and 23.1 fantasy points.

We have seen White in a role with a 55% snap share or better nine times in the last two seasons. He has averaged 14.4 points in those contests.

While we should temper expectations after the 23.1-point boom, that sort of output is in the range of outcomes. White isn't the most explosive back, but his every-down skillset keeps him on the field during key passing situations, and he is the lead option inside the five-yard line on a high-scoring offense. Tampa Bay ranks eighth in red-zone drives per game at 3.6.”

Regardless, we’ll continue to monitor all of the storylines before roster lock. Be sure to catch Ian and me bright and early to answer your last-minute questions. Plus, we’ve got some additional start/sit advice using some of the latest injury news.

QBs
- Kyler Murray (foot)
RBs
- Chris Rodriguez (calf)
WRs
- Zay Flowers
- Deebo Samuel (heel)
- Terry McLaurin (quad)
TEs
- Dalton Kincaid (oblique)
- Brock Bowers (knee)

Week 6 Fantasy Football Linkfest

The Utilization Report — the "UR Score" gets a lot of the attention but there are a LOT of stats to play with in here, and ways to easily manipulate the data for more recent results, trends, etc.
The Start/Sit tool — exactly what it says it is! Get your biases confirmed!
Week 6 Smash Starts — I love this column
Buy/Sell/Hold — aka "what to do with Christian McCaffrey"

The Week 6 Weather Report

A gross game or two had to happen sooner or later. And by “gross,” I don’t mean the quality of the on-field product. We’re about midway through October, so wind or rain in a forecast or two isn’t much of a surprise. However, in the two games on Sunday featuring poor conditions, there won’t be much for us to adjust as fantasy managers.

Game: Cowboys @ Panthers
- Conditions: Wind, 14 mph (max), across the stadium; Rain, 61% chance, 0.03 inches per hour (max)
Game: Rams @ Ravens
- Conditions: Wind, 15 mph (max), across the stadium; Rain, 50% chance, 0.03 inches per hour (max)

BLUF: I’m not adjusting my lineups that have anyone in these games. Neither contest will have a maximum wind speed over the 20-mph threshold, typically resulting in a drop in pass-game volume or efficiency. The rainfall duration does have the chance to degrade the field (i.e., cause footing issues), but that’s the only concern as of this writing.

I’ll start with Baltimore, since, depending on which forecast model you use, the report may show a different (and potentially higher) wind speed. As I’ve mentioned each week, the two key factors to consider with wind are pace and direction. Even though Baltimore will be below the breakpoint where pass rates and completion percentages tend to dip, the flow across the stadium may make things difficult for kickers.

The rain will also make the environment look worse than it is. However, here’s where digging into the hourly projections can be useful.

I’d categorize 0.01 inches per hour as a “drizzle” compared to higher rates we’ve seen in the past. You won’t see it on the main broadcast. The heavier rainfall won’t happen until closer to the end of the game. Besides, opportunity insulates the primary players in this game (e.g., Puka Nacua, Davante Adams, Kyren Williams), negating any need to shift our lineups. The Panthers’ game has a similar vibe.

OK, if you have Brandon Aubrey on your squad, things might be a little harder for him. Otherwise, we can approach the Cowboys and Panthers’ offenses like normal. The only change is that the rain may worsen in the second half.

Additionally, the forecast predicts rain to begin as early as Saturday night and persist throughout the game. However, Carolina has an artificial turf playing surface with a drainage system and a cover, which the team can keep on until 90 minutes before kickoff. So, unless conditions worsen, we’ve got another week with football unaffected by the elements.

Exploiting the Ranks, aka I Hope I’m Wrong

As I do every week, I scour the ranks to find the potential pain points for fantasy managers. Essentially, if you look at a player’s value according to our crew, would you wince at the number near their name or the other guys around them. And the one guy I’m sure I’ll get questions about on Sunday morning is our consensus RB17.

On the bright side, the Ravens’ bleak game script against the Texans didn’t affect Derrick Henry’s workload. Even in the fourth quarter, down by 20-plus points, Baltimore’s RB1 was handling over 60% of the carries. He even got all of the goal-line totes. However, Cooper Rush only moved the ball into Houston’s red zone for five plays. Facing the Rams isn’t much different. Meanwhile, there are multiple options behind Henry in the ranks with better situations.

J.K. Dobbins has taken over 50% of the attempts in every game this year and gets to face a below-average Jets’ run defense (allowing 14th-most PPR PPG to RBs). The Jaguars aren’t too far behind the Jets, which benefits Kenneth Walker. Even David Montgomery, despite the split with Jahmyr Gibbs, gets to play in the game with the highest projected total, giving him some appeal. All of whom could be on your roster. And, given the current state of the Ravens, I’d consider starting over Henry.

Planning Ahead For Bye Weeks

If some of my rosters look anything like yours, I’m just happy getting through Sunday. I’ll deal with Week 7 starting on Monday. But honestly, solving next week’s problems can happen today. Luckily, we’ve only got two teams on bye. However, there are plenty of fantasy stars we’ll need to replace.

Baltimore (players rostered in more than 50% of leagues): Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, Zay Flowers, Mark Andrews
Buffalo: Josh Allen, James Cook, Dalton Kincaid, Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman

While few QBs have the same upside as Jackson and Allen, a passer in a good situation should at least get you through the week. Accordingly, let me introduce you to Aaron Rodgers. Pittsburgh plays against the Bengals in Week 7. The only signal caller to not complete multiple touchdown passes against them is their current starter. So, in a pinch, stashing Rodgers now would save the waiver transaction. Also, if you need a spot starter at WR, Geoff had one in his latest stash piece:

“While [Jayden] Higgins' role has been disappointing to date, Head Coach DeMeco Ryans talked before the game vs. the Ravens about getting Higgins and fellow rookie Jaylin Noel more involved soon. Both players then set season highs for usage and targets, with Higgins going for four receptions and 32 yards, while playing 56% of the snaps.

With only third-year WR Xavier Hutchinson in his way for more outside snaps, Higgins is certainly looking like he has a chance to be a big factor for the Texans in the second half of the season, especially with the difficulties they’ve had running the ball. A nice player to stash for the next few weeks to see how the Texans WR situation plays out if you have room.”

Coincidentally, Higgins’ routes and targets have been on a three-week incline as the Texans headed into their bye. At the same time, Christian Kirk’s usage has receded (down to 57% route rate in Week 5). Houston comes out of its in-season break with a trip to Seattle, where injuries have decimated its secondary. If you have the space, add the former Cyclone to get ahead of your leaguemates.