Week 6 Fantasy Football Receiver Score Buys & Fades: Buy Colston Loveland & Emeka Egbuka

Five weeks of disappointing fantasy production is enough to make anyone question a player they drafted. It also gives us a chance to buy when the offense is still putting that player in a valuable role. Colston Loveland and Emeka Egbuka are my favorite examples this week, and both could get their starting quarterback back soon.

As always, these calls inform my fantasy football rankings and the Fantasy Life ROS projections.

Players Fantasy Football Receiver Score is Buying

Colston Loveland: Buy before Caleb Williams returns

Colston Loveland scored 3.9 PPR points Sunday, but the routes he ran were worth 15.3 expected points in Receiver Score. His season-long receiving production is now 24.0 points on a 57.5 expectation. That is a ridiculous gap for a player the model still projects as a low-end TE1 ROS.

Chicago has used motion on 29% of Loveland’s routes over the last three weeks and play-action on 24%, creating ways to move defenders and open space behind the linebackers. The Bears are also looking for him more often. His first-read share is up to 28.3% over the last two games, well above his 18.7% season rate.

The quarterback play has made it hard to take advantage, as only 14 of his 22 targets have been catchable. His actual targets are also below his expected targets, so I think we’re at the low point and am happy to buy moving forward. I will cling to his 89% route share in Week 1 that has sat below 80% since Week 1. Against the Vikings, we know TEs stay in to block, but after reviewing the film, I think the Bears are keeping him in pass protection a bit more with Case Keenum and Tyson Bagent at the helm. Perhaps when Caleb Williams is back, we see that route share tick back up. He ran a route on 80% or more dropbacks in Weeks 16-19 last season (during his ascension), so I think there’s a good chance at that.

Getting Ozzy Trapilo back, who is a better pass protector than Theo Benedet, could also help Loveland see more routes.

Caleb Williams is reportedly pushing toward a Week 6 return from his hamstring injury, so we may see the full offense on display this week. I’ve seen Loveland moved for Dalton Schultz, Brenton Strange, Juwan Johnson and Travis Kelce in a few trade databases—give me Loveland rest-of-season. Loveland is my favorite TE buy right now.

Emeka Egbuka: Buy while Baker Mayfield is out

Emeka Egbuka’s 17.2 PPR points Thursday were useful, although a rushing TD did a lot of the lifting. His 6 catches for 38 yards were worth 9.8 receiving points. Tampa Bay still needs to get more out of him and the model thinks his role can make that happen (when Baker is back).

Egbuka drew 50% of the Bucs’ first-read targets in Week 5. That number will come down, but his 32.3% share over the last three weeks shows he is the focal point of this passing attack. Tampa Bay used motion on 38% of his routes and play-action on 34% against Dallas, helping the value and ease of his routes.

Receiver Score has Egbuka at 38.6 expected targets through five games. He has actually earned 33 targets, so a slight shortfall thus far. His receiving production is further behind, at 46.2 PPR points on a 63.6 expectation.

Initial reports on Baker Mayfield’s thumb were a 3-to-6 week timeframe, so I want to buy Egbuka before the early part of that timeline (Week 7). The model still sees a low-end WR2 when Mayfield is back.

Recent completed deals have sent Jordan Addison, Carnell Tate and Luther Burden for Egbuka. I prefer Egbuka to all three ROS. A team that needs an immediate starter has less room to make this bet.

Jaylen Waddle: Buy at the frustrated-manager price

I still think Denver gets this offense going (eventually), and Jaylen Waddle is someone I want before that happens. Receiver Score gives him an 84 grade and projects him as a WR2 ROS. Denver has used him in motion on 25% of his routes, while Fantasy Points Data has him in the slot 45% of the time. He has enough ways to get involved underneath that the entire case doesn’t depend on Bo Nix connecting on deep balls.

Denver is already throwing on 62% of its neutral-situation plays, so Waddle doesn’t need a completely different offense to support more volume. More of those throws need to go his way, and the offense needs to turn them into better gains.

There are real concerns. Waddle’s first-read share has fallen to 22.2% over the last two games, and he has 4 drops without an end zone target this season.

Jerry Jeudy’s 2024 season is an example of how quickly the outlook can change. He averaged 9.7 PPR points through five games, then 21.1 from Weeks 8-15 (yes, they changed QBs and traded away Amari Cooper).

Waddle has been traded for Marvin Harrison Jr. and Romeo Doubs in recent redraft deals. I’d take Waddle over either. I’m comfortable treating him as a WR3 in my lineup while buying the WR2 upside.

Dontayvion Wicks: Buy cheap if you need receiver depth

Dontayvion Wicks was a start last week with DeVonta Smith out and we’re going for it again this week. All 8 of his charted targets Sunday came on first reads, giving him a 30.8% share. The Eagles made him a priority even though the 5 catches for 63 yards didn’t produce a huge fantasy day (Hurts was under pressure and missed him wide-open deep, so it could have been a much bigger day).

He had also earned 23.2% of the first-read targets in Weeks 1-3 while Smith was healthy. Wicks ran 74.5% of the routes during that stretch, so his path to playing time existed before the injury. Smith returning will take away opportunities, but the early-season usage makes Wicks worth holding through that return.

I’ve seen him go for MHJ multiple times over the last few days. Other names that I would rather have him over include: Kendre Miller, Brian Thomas, Mark Andrews, Wan'Dale Robinson, Caleb Douglas, Keon Coleman, Quentin Johnston and Tyjae Spears. These are all trades that have happened over the last day or two.

Jakobi Meyers: Buy after another quiet week

I’ve been buying Jakobi Meyers, and three targets against Philadelphia aren’t what I wanted to see. His route mix still looks useful, with in-breakers accounting for 29% of his routes and play-action on 22% this season. Those routes give Trevor Lawrence opportunities to find him across the field, but Meyers has earned only 18 targets on the model’s 29.2 expectation.

The Denver and Philadelphia games account for nearly 80% of that target shortfall. He drew 4 targets across those two matchups when Receiver Score expected 12.8. That makes me more willing to see what happens against different defenses, although it doesn’t excuse every quiet game.

His first-read share over the last two weeks is only 14%, and Jacksonville has passed on 56% of its plays this season. Being a secondary option in an offense that isn’t throwing a ton makes those quiet weeks harder to avoid. Meyers needs to become a more consistent priority for Lawrence before I can get aggressive about the WR3 projection, but based on what the model knows, the Jaguars vary from week-to-week on who they have as option one based on what the matchups dictate. I would bet that Brenton Strange is not an option two most weeks and that Meyers earns that spot.

In recent days I’ve seen him dropped (could be available) or moved for: Robinson, Strange, Malik Washington and others. Those are all easy ones for me—give me Meyers.

Malik Nabers: Hold the breakout, buy if someone is selling

Malik Nabers is going to be harder to acquire after 11 catches, 121 yards and a TD. I’m not going to tell you to send the offer that might have worked on Saturday. His 29.1 PPR points came with usage that supports keeping him as a WR1.

Nabers has earned 39% of the first-read targets over the last two games and ran 95% of the routes Sunday. His 94 Receiver Score grade and ROS projection both support valuing him as a WR1 (unless J.J. McCarthy becomes the QB). The Giants have also passed on 66% of their plays over the last two weeks, up from 57% over the full season. More passing and more of the offense going through Nabers is a pretty good combination.

Sunday wasn’t even a clean game—he had 4 drops, so there were chances for an even bigger result. It’s real everyone, his expected targets in Week 5 were 19.6 (he had 18). Another situation where the model thought he should have had MORE even at a crazy volume.

Nabers went for Tetairoa McMillan, Mike Evans, Saquon Barkley, Rashee Rice and Michael Wilson in recent days. I would definitely rather have Nabers in all of those situations.

Fantasy Football Players Receiver Score is Selling

Denzel Boston: Sell the redraft production

Denzel Boston keeps giving us useful fantasy games, and his 46.3% season air yard share explains why the upside is appealing. Cleveland is giving him plenty of chances downfield. The problem is how often those routes turn into targets, with only 16 on 102 charted routes over the last three weeks.

That 15.7% TPRR has come alongside a 17.7% first-read share. Receiver Score gives him a 51 grade and projects him as a WR4 ROS.

His season receiving production is 67.0 PPR points on a 52.6 expectation. The recent games haven’t all been big overperformances, so I’m not calling every useful result a fluke. I just think the downfield production has made him easier to trade than a receiver with this target rate normally would be.

Even with KC Concepcion out for most of Week 5, Boston had the same role—Isaiah Bond somewhat stepped into KC Concepcion’s role.

Some names I’ve seen Boston go for that I would rather have are: Jordan Mason, DJ Moore (obviously, but I saw it a lot), Woody Marks, Ladd McConkey, Jameson Williams, Colston Loveland and Isaiah Likely.

Pat Freiermuth: Sell the big game

Pat Freiermuth scored twice Sunday, but Pittsburgh also gave him a more useful role. He earned 30% of the first-read targets, and all 6 of his targets came on first reads. Michael Pittman Jr. is on IR and Roman Wilson is expected to miss time, so the team may continue to boost his route share in the short term. All of this looks great on the surface, including information in the below writeup about the team’s pass rate on the Germie Bernard note.

Freiermuth ran routes on 71% of Pittsburgh’s dropbacks (that is somewhat low), and his season receiving production is 59.9 PPR points on Receiver Score’s 41.3 expectation. The model does not believe he is a ROS TE9 like he has been—it thinks he’s more of a streamer or TE2.

He ran 79% of his routes from the slot, where the Colts defense is most vulnerable and that helped prop up his numbers in Week 5.

I’ve seen him moved for: J.K. Dobbins, Dallas Goedert, Jonah Coleman, Harold Fannin, any solid handcuff like Emmett Johnson. I would clearly do all of those.

Fantasy Football Players to Add or Stash

Germie Bernard: Add for the opportunity in Pittsburgh

Bernard is the receiver I’d prioritize if I needed help this week. Per the Xfinity’s Fantasy HQ on Fantasy Life, Bernard is 3% owned in home leagues and 50% owned in high-stakes leagues, so he should be available enough.

Pittman is on IR, and Wilson’s finger injury creates another opening after Bernard ran 78.8% of Pittsburgh’s routes Sunday and caught 6 passes for 80 yards. The Steelers have passed on 70% of their neutral-situation plays this season, so this can be a favorable PPR environment.

Bernard also operated out of the slot on 63% of his routes—another nice quality the model likes for him moving forward (even when Wilson was playing, he was the slot).

The model isn’t all-in like this is some big breakout, but it really likes the environment and thinks the role (slot and route share) is good. It also recognizes that the error bars for a low sample size rookie are wider.

Add him in 12-team leagues and consider him a WR3/flex. I recommend 10-15% FAAB in high-stakes leagues and 3-8% in home leagues. Those are reasonable bids—if you really need him, go up higher.

Josh Cameron: Stash in deep leagues and dynasty

Josh Cameron caught 3 passes for 43 yards against Philadelphia, including 30 after the catch and 24 after catch over expectation. He’s creating more than what is available consistently.

Jacksonville gave him only 13 routes, a 29.5% route share, so he’s nowhere close to being a redraft starter. Two of his targets came inside the 20, including one in the end zone. That is an encouraging use of limited playing time, especially for a rookie trying to earn more of it.

Receiver Score had him as WR17 on a per-route basis in Week 5 in terms of route value, which caught my eye. I wanted to document that here for you all in case an injury happens in redraft—the model thinks he could be really good (again, low sample size).

I’d use an open dynasty bench spot or a cheap deep-league waiver claim to see whether Jacksonville expands his role. Meyers and Parker Washington are still ahead of him, but who’s to say he doesn’t surpass BTJ and the team likes him so much that they decide to go back to 11 personnel on dropbacks. It was improbable for Washington to do what he did last season—maybe we’re witnessing something happening with Cameron. Again, he will need playing time to matter, but I want to prepare our minds for it.