Week 6 Scheme Advantages & Disadvantages For Fantasy Football: Dalton Kincaid Set To Smash

Braelon Allen vs Patriots Run Defense

I'm keeping Allen in my lineup as a high-end RB2 if Breece Hall misses another game with his quad injury. Allen handled 24 of the Jets' 26 RB carries against Cleveland, finishing with 116 rushing yards.

New England has stopped just 9.6% of opposing RB carries at or behind the line of scrimmage, the second-lowest rate in the NFL. The Patriots have allowed a successful run on 55.3% of those carries (7th most).

Allen forced 8 missed tackles against the Browns and gained 108 of his 116 yards after contact, per PFF. Cleveland put at least eight defenders in the box on 14 of his 24 carries—he had to do most of that work himself and did so successfully.

Juwan Johnson vs Giants Coverage

The Giants send five or more pass rushers on 36.7% of dropbacks, the seventh-highest rate in the NFL. Johnson has earned 13 targets on 45 routes against those blitzes this season, a 28.9% target rate compared with 14.7% when the defense rushes four or fewer.

New York also plays man coverage on 32.2% of dropbacks (3rd most). Johnson has drawn a target on 25% of his routes against man and averaged 1.95 YPRR (great marks for anyone, let alone a TE).

Johnson has 20 targets over his last three games, even with the Saints dropping back just 27 times against Minnesota last week. I'd use him as a low-end TE1 against the Giants.

Mark Andrews vs Browns Coverage

Cleveland plays man coverage on 47.4% of dropbacks, the highest rate in the NFL. Andrews has earned 12 targets on 30 routes against man this season, a 40% target rate compared with 19.4% against zone.

The Browns have also allowed 2.17 YPRR to players aligned in the slot when playing man (5th most). Andrews has run 46% of his routes from the slot this season.

Andrews has earned at least 5 targets in every game this season. I'd use him as a low-end TE1 if Lamar Jackson returns from his ankle injury.

Dameon Pierce or Saquon Barkley vs Panthers Run Defense

Carolina has allowed 5.39 YPC to RBs, the highest average in the NFL. The Panthers have stopped just 7.9% of opposing RB carries at or behind the line of scrimmage, with backs gaining 1.69 yards before contact per attempt.

I'd have Barkley right back in my lineup if he returns without a workload restriction. Pierce is a low-end RB2 for me if Barkley misses the game. Pierce took over the backfield when Shipley left last week's loss to Jacksonville with a foot injury with a 100% opportunity share even though Carson Steele was active.

Tre Tucker vs Bills Coverage

Buffalo has allowed a target on 21.1% of routes run by receivers aligned outside, the highest rate in the NFL. Tucker has gained 218 of his 274 receiving yards from outside alignments this season, per PFF.

He's earned 28 targets through five games, with an average depth of 14.3 yards. I'd use him as a WR3/flex against Buffalo if you're filling in for a receiver on bye. 

This Buffalo pass defense is something we are going to be attacking weekly—they are the best defense for opposing WRs per the Fantasy Live DvP tool from a fantasy football perspective. Also the second best for outside WRs. Lean in on Tucker this week.

Fantasy Football Matchups That Are Tougher in Week 6

Jaylen Waddle vs Seahawks Coverage

Seattle plays Cover 6 on 33.7% of dropbacks, the highest rate in the NFL. Waddle has earned 6 targets on 25 routes against that coverage this season, producing just 16 receiving yards.

Waddle has also been targeted much more often against the blitz, with a 34.9% target rate compared with 16.1% when defenses rush four or fewer. Seattle sends five or more rushers on just 20.1% of dropbacks (3rd fewest).

The Seahawks have allowed only 0.73 YPRR to players aligned in the slot (3rd fewest), where Waddle runs 44% of his routes.

Waddle's share of Denver's first-read targets has dropped from 35.3% in Week 3 to 25% in Week 4 and 18.8% last week, per Fantasy Points Data. I'd treat him as a WR3/flex against Seattle.

Woody Marks vs Jaguars Run Defense

Obviously Marks belongs on rosters with David Montgomery week-to-week with a groin injury, but Jacksonville is a really tough matchup for him. Marks handled 15 carries against Tennessee last week, his first game with double-digit attempts this season.

Jacksonville has allowed just 2.54 YPC to RBs, the lowest average in the NFL. Houston uses gap concepts on 55% of its RB carries. Jacksonville has allowed 2.65 YPC on those runs, with none of the 37 attempts gaining at least 10 yards.

Houston has earned a D in run blocking in my blended model against a Jacksonville run defense with an A+. I'd still use him as a mid-tier RB2 in PPR, given the larger workload and his involvement in the passing game. Marks ran a route on 75% of Houston's dropbacks last week.

Overall, it is a matchup downgrade. Sometimes we want to take the new car for a spin, but if you have more secure options, start those instead.

Colston Loveland vs Falcons Coverage

Loveland was a buy for me in this week's Receiver Score article, but I'd keep him in the TE2 range against Atlanta. I still like him as a mid-to-low-end TE1 for the rest of the season.

The Falcons have allowed just 0.92 YPRR to players aligned in the slot (5th fewest), where Loveland runs 35% of his routes. Atlanta's linebackers have earned an A in coverage in my blended model.

Atlanta has also generated pressure on 44.6% of dropbacks (2nd most). Loveland has averaged just 0.43 YPRR when his quarterback is pressured this season.

Kendrick Bourne vs Rams Coverage

I'd leave Bourne on the bench in a 12-team league this week, even after the Marvin Harrison Jr. trade. Jalen Brooks has been playing the outside role, while Bourne has run 71% of his routes from the slot. Bourne's route participation actually fell to 62% last week after sitting between 75% and 80% in each of the first four games.

The Rams have allowed just 1.05 YPRR to slot receivers, eighth fewest in the NFL. They also play man coverage on 29.1% of dropbacks (5th most), where Bourne has produced 24 yards on 41 routes this season.

Honestly, he’s not even someone I would roster even in deep leagues, but I have been asked the question, so I thought addressing it here was appropriate.

Jacory Croskey-Merritt vs 49ers Run Defense

Croskey-Merritt has taken 77% of his carries on inside or outside zone runs this season. San Francisco has allowed 3.00 YPC on those concepts, without a single gain of at least 10 yards on 43 carries.

Croskey-Merritt is still sharing the backfield, with 11 of Washington's 21 RB carries last week. He ran a route on just 16% of the team's dropbacks without earning a target.

I'd only use Croskey-Merritt as a flex against San Francisco, especially in PPR leagues where he's giving us very little as a receiver.

Omarion Hampton and Keaton Mitchell vs Chiefs Run Defense

I'd sit Hampton against Kansas City, especially in PPR leagues (he's caught just 5 passes all season and does not run many routes). He played just 20 offensive snaps against Denver, the fewest of the Chargers' three running backs.

Kansas City has allowed 3.33 YPC to RBs, second fewest in the NFL. The Chiefs have stopped 24.7% of opposing RB carries at or behind the line of scrimmage, with backs averaging just 0.59 yards before contact per attempt.

The same notes apply to Keaton Mitchell—this is the worst timeline for the Chargers.

Jake Ferguson vs Packers Coverage

I'd keep Ferguson in the TE2 range against Green Bay, even after he earned a season-high 6 targets against Tampa Bay. He's finished with 23 or fewer receiving yards in three straight games.

Green Bay has allowed just 0.69 YPRR to players aligned in the slot, second fewest in the NFL. Ferguson has run 52% of his routes from the slot this season.

The Packers play zone on 71.3% of dropbacks (4th most), a coverage type that has limited Ferguson to 0.67 YPRR on 109 routes.

As an aside, there’s also a chance he gets a severe playing time reduction given that he has cost the Cowboys two potential wins this season. Timely drops and fumbles without strong play on the other plays gets you to the bench fast.

Xavier Worthy vs Chargers Coverage

Worthy's target rate falls from 30.8% against man to 13.9% against zone, with just 0.78 YPRR on his 72 routes against zone this season. The Chargers play zone on 63.7% of dropbacks.

Los Angeles uses Cover 3 on 29.9% of dropbacks, its most-used coverage. Worthy has earned 5 targets on 37 routes against Cover 3, averaging 0.73 YPRR.

I'd use Worthy as a WR3/flex if Rashee Rice misses the game with his hamstring injury, but I'd rather leave him on the bench if Rice returns. Rice missed Wednesday's practice following Kansas City's bye.

There’s also chatter about more Jaylen Royals and Cyrus Allen usage, so we could see more rotations at WR. Those guys might be interesting deep league adds to get ahead of the wire in case either has a big game.