Week 7 WR/CB Matchups For Fantasy Football: Big Return For Justin Jefferson
Fantasy

Week 7 WR/CB Matchups For Fantasy Football: Big Return For Justin Jefferson

Chris Allen digs in for the WR/CB matchups to target and avoid for fantasy football in Week 7.

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Every time I join a new project team or go on-site to meet another crew, there’s a feeling-out period. I’ll get a first impression, maybe a hunch about how they work. Of course, there’s some football talk. But it’s a few emails and one meeting. I can’t tell much of anything based on that. Give it a month, though, and I know who answers quickly, who needs the details spelled out and who I could lean on for critical tasks.

That’s been the challenge with WR/CB matchups this season. We’ve been trying to read both sides of the ball off a handful of games. Small samples, new schemes, injuries scrambling depth charts. It’s hard to make sweeping proclamations about anything. But six weeks in, we finally have enough to see who’s who. Corners have shown us their tendencies, and receivers have settled into their roles. So, let’s put that information to use as we head into Week 7. Also, make sure to check out our fantasy football rankings and fantasy football projections.

WR/CB Matchups to Target in Fantasy Football for Week 7

Week 6 Recap: Malik Nabers (WR1), Davante Adams (WR48). Adams was still running routes during the fourth quarter, so I can’t even blame his ruptured hamstring. That was his second straight week playing third fiddle with either one of the RBs or TEs functioning as the WR2. His red zone prowess was saving his fantasy value. Let’s see if Konata Mumpfield or Tutu Atwell wind up in the “Sneaky” category at some point with Adams out. 

Justin Jefferson vs Colts

We can’t talk about Justin Jefferson without first discussing his QB. Across Kyler Murray’s three full games, he’s averaging 13.7 PPG. That’s fewer points per outing than backup Tyler Huntley. However, Murray’s performance going into the bye was enough to keep hope alive. 

A QB15 finish isn’t going to instantly change our minds about Jefferson and the Vikings’ passing game. But Murray’s peripherals were encouraging. It was his first outing with at least a 50.0% passing success rate and a positive EPA per dropback. Plus, the athletic ability was back (18.4% rushing rate, season high). The Colts, outside of the front office issues, are coming into Week 7 with the fourth-lowest pressure rate, setting up a similar environment for Murray. And with extra time to rest, Justin Jefferson should be back to his WR1-scoring ways.

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We’ve only got one game with the QB1 and WR1 active together. Jefferson’s 24% target rate led the team, but the other metrics our UR reports give emphasize how critical he was to the offense. In obvious passing situations, Murray was looking for No. 18. When trying to score? Jettas. Even when the protection broke down, Jefferson was the most productive pass catcher for the Vikings. 

Indianapolis’ secondary is working through multiple injuries, and the Vikings are getting healthy along with having extra time for Murray to get in sync with his primary receivers. With Jefferson back at the forefront of the passing game, he has the floor and ceiling combination we want for Week 7.

Jalen Coker vs Buccaneers

Just a few weeks ago, Jalen Coker wouldn’t be in this section. Even with back-to-back games with target rates over 25%, I’d still put him in the “Sneaky” section. But now, we have to acknowledge his place in the offense.

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At worst, Coker is a WR1B. But you’ve likely seen the stats that put the third-year receiver at the top of the food chain for the Panthers. Over their last 10 games together, he’s out-targeted and out-produced Tetairoa McMillan. That doesn’t mean we should avoid McMillan. But how Coker wins gives him the inside track heading into Sunday. 

Per our DvP tool, the Bucs rank 29th in FPPG allowed to RBs while being 17th against WRs. It’s not an absolute, but it at least points to Carolina needing to lean on Bryce Young to get through the game. Next, let’s look at who’s performed well against HC Todd Bowles’ defense.

Of the five, Coker’s on-field deployment aligns the most with Boston and Bernard. The Browns’ rookie tagged the Bucs on an intermediate route that he turned into a 55-yard TD. One, Coker has a similar build and, two, leads the team in YPRR on throws of 10 air yards or more. Pittsburgh’s rookie cooked them from the slot, acting as Aaron Rodgers’ safety valve (5 of 12 targets came when Rodgers was under duress). Not only is Coker the primary interior option (44.0% slot snap rate), but two-thirds of his catches have turned into first downs from this alignment.

With the Bucs’ ability to constantly create pressure (3rd in blitz rate), let’s hope either Young can buy time in the pocket with his legs or OC Brad Idzik adjusts Coker’s route depths (12.2 aDOT). Regardless, with the amount of work he’s earned and chemistry he has with Young, Coker’s upside should have him as a fringe top-12 option for Week 7.

Sneaky WR/CB Matchups for Fantasy Football in Week 7

Recap: Matthew Golden (WR5), Wan'Dale Robinson (WR62), and Germie Bernard (WR3). Honestly, Golden falls into the same “WR1B” category as Coker. I’ll have him there in the future. Bernard was a bet on him maintaining his role from Week 5. Pittsburgh had few other options, with Metcalf isolated to the outside, Pat Freiermuth hurt and Roman Wilson/Michael Pittman out. Tennessee did have another WR (Carnell Tate) who stole the show, but Robinson did tie for the team lead in targets. They just didn’t amount to anything in the boxscore. I think I have another one like that for this week, but let’s see.

Jaylin Noel vs Giants

A couple of things have changed for the Texans as they try to claw their way back into the playoff race. First, they’re passing more. Houston’s PROE has been at +4.4% and +3.6 over the past two weeks and has been on an upward trend since Week 3. Second, Stroud’s been more efficient across the middle of the field. Over his last three games, he’s fifth in EPA per attempt to the MoF. And Jaylin Noel is part of the reason why.

A couple of notes first. As the Texans have morphed into a pass-friendly offense over the past two weeks, Noel’s route share has consistently been above 50%. He’s not a full-time player, yet. Also, in his 20.7-point outburst, his target rate actually dropped from Week 5 (16% to 13%). Essentially, we’re banking on Noel hitting us with the Uno reverse card. But his effectiveness on limited usage makes him a strong bet.

  • Week 4: 11.5% (Target Share), 3.54 (YPRR), 12.5% (1D/RR)
  • Week 5: 15.2%,2.05, 5.0%
  • Week 6: 12.5%, 4.86, 18.2%

Noel has been ahead of Nico Collins in YPRR in two of their last three games. He’s right behind Collins in how often he generates first downs on a per-route basis (12.1% vs 13.3%). The Giants won’t provide the same offensive push to keep Houston throwing. But if Stroud continues to pass, Noel should be a WR3 with upside. 

Denzel Boston vs Titans

So, a couple of notes here regarding Denzel Boston. Let’s start with his UR game logs. 

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Cleveland’s aerial attack is still primarily Boston and fellow-rookie KC Concepcion. They’re both at a 20% share on the season, but Boston’s 47% air yard share dwarfs the competition. And this works out for Boston in Week 7. The Titans are one of the seven defenses that rank in the bottom 10 for YPG allowed to WRs and explosive passes allowed. But check out his catchable target rate.

With Deshaun Watson and Boston, we have a worse version of the Murray-Jefferson discussion we had earlier. At least with Jefferson, we know he can run a variety of routes or play from any pre-snap alignment. Boston has one target from the slot on the year. Meanwhile, Watson’s CPOE has fluctuated from -15.6% against the Jets to -0.8% vs. Baltimore. It takes only one or two catches with Boston for him to be a WR2 for the week. But depending on Watson, it may lead to a floor outcome that could hurt you.

Courtland Sutton vs Cardinals

I’m including Courtland Sutton here more for the matchup against Arizona. Admittedly, Jaxon Smith-Njigba dunking on them for 155 yards and 3 scores is doing most of the heavy lifting. But Ladd McConkey got there in Week 1 (19.2 points), Malik Nabers in Week 4 (23.2) and Jameson Williams in Week 5 (18.7). Simply put, it’s not just one week bringing the Cardinals’ defensive ranks down.

  • Fantasy PPG Allowed: 3rd (Most)
  • Def EPA per Play: 31st
  • YPG Allowed: 19th 

The obvious problem is tying yourself to a Bo Nix offense. Plus, Sutton’s target share has been on a four-week slide in the wrong direction. However, both Nix and HC Sean Payton have discussed the need to push the ball downfield. Assuming the Cardinals give Nix more time (29th in pressure rate), Sutton would be the under-the-radar, if-you’re-desperate play for Week 7.

Week 7 WR/CB Matchup to Avoid

Recap: Michael Wilson (WR51). At least his targets were back up in Week 6, but facing the Rams’ perimeter defense didn’t do Wilson any favors. That’s two weeks with a WR4 finish for Wilson since the announcement that Marvin Harrison Jr. would be on the move. Week 8 against the Cowboys may be the true test of Wilson’s ability to be a WR1.

Malik Nabers vs Texans

Allow me to be skeptical that J.J. McCarthy has turned a corner in his development after taking over in the fourth quarter against the Saints. New Orleans pressured him on just 26.3% of his dropbacks. His fourth throw resulted in an interception. Meanwhile, Houston, despite its problems as a coverage unit, still has a formidable front.

  • Pressure Rate: 12th
  • Sack Rate: 12th
  • QB Hits per Game: 12th 

The bright side is that Malik Nabers has accounted for 30% of the team’s targets all season, and that didn’t change once McCarthy replaced Jameis Winston (31.6% target rate in Q4 of Week 6). Said another way, his workload will give him a viable floor in most scoring formats. However, with the level of rapport required to move an offense against Houston’s defense consistently, we should lower our expectations for Nabers in Week 7.

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