Week 9 WR/CB Matchups For Fantasy Football: Luther Burden, Matthew Golden & More
Fantasy

Week 9 WR/CB Matchups For Fantasy Football: Luther Burden, Matthew Golden & More

Chris Allen identifies the wide receiver/cornerback matchups to target and avoid in fantasy football for Week 9.

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I can walk through my house in the dark. I know where the couch is, which step creaks and exactly how many paces it takes to get from the bedroom to the kitchen. That works great until my wife mentions she’s thinking about rearranging the living room. Then I know my 2 a.m. walks to the kitchen are about to get a lot more dangerous.

The NFL trade deadline is next Tuesday, and someone’s about to move the furniture. For eight weeks, we’ve learned where everything is: which corners shadow, which receivers draw the targets, which secondaries leak big plays. Some of those pieces may have new homes soon. But for now, the layout is the same, and we know it better than we have all season. So, let’s use it while it lasts and walk through the best and worst WR/CB matchups for Week 9.

WR/CB Matchups to Target in Fantasy Football for Week 9

Week 8 Recap: CeeDee Lamb (WR23), Parker Washington (WR61). The main theme contributing to my main targets from last week, and something I’ve been trying to factor into my model more, is a player’s environment. But I don’t want to overreact too much. 

For instance, Dallas had a -11.4% PROE in Week 7 against an “inferior team” and sat at -8.2% during the first half of Week 8 in what I’m sure they thought was a similar setup. It didn’t matter that CeeDee Lamb earned 11 targets when Dak Prescott’s aDOT was the lowest it’s been all season (5.0 air yards). Meanwhile, the Colts’ ineptitude on offense allowed Trevor Lawrence to throw just 14 times, limiting any usage for Parker Washington. So, for this week, let’s look at some situations where we’ll get some pushback from the other side.

Luther Burden vs. Buccaneers

Caleb Williams has only been back for three games, but qualitatively, his connection with Luther Burden looks stronger than last year.

I realize we’re working with a small sample, and I’m only highlighting a single rep. But Burden’s average yards of separation have been inside the top 10 for all receivers (WRs and TEs) in two of his last three games with Williams. The route timing and ball placement both look in concert with each other. Some of our data can bring you to the same conclusion.

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Burden had a 69% catchable target rate through the first month of the season. Of course, that was with a mix of Williams, Tyson Bagent and Case Keenum throwing to him. That same metric is up to 90% with just No. 18 at the helm. So, on top of seeing more efficient looks (play-action target rate up to 48%), Burden’s rapport with Williams is giving the second-year WR more chances to succeed. He’s up to 9.3 YAC per reception since Week 6. And he should be able to build on all of this in Week 9.

First, let’s consider the Bucs’ offense. Despite Baker Mayfield attempting just 14 passes in two weeks, Tampa’s offense has averaged 322 YPG. That’s more than the Chiefs. Also, on defense, HC Todd Bowles blitzes to create pressure at the fifth-highest rate. Under duress, Williams is 13th in EPA per dropback. Plus, the Bucs’ slot CB has surrendered the 11th-most yards and tied for allowing the most TDs this season. Even after a statement win on Monday night, Burden and the Bears should be able to do a repeat performance on Sunday night in Week 9. 

Matthew Golden at Patriots

Christian Watson returning from the hospital to play in the same game he left was the wildest thing I’ve ever seen. But Matthew Golden’s sequence to close out the first half of TNF was also up there on the crazy scale.

To be clear, I think it’s great that Jordan Love looked at Golden’s drop like any other incompletion. At least by the data I looked at, that was his third shot at a TD in ’26 that went clanging off his hands (along with his six other drops). But it hasn’t changed how often Love looks for Golden in the end zone.

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On top of leading the team in raw targets (Watson’s time in an ambulance notwithstanding), Golden sits atop the pass-catching totem pole in every other opportunity metric. But, of course, having a 14.8-yard aDOT will lead to some volatility in results. But playing against the Patriots balances things out.

  • Passing Success Rate Allowed (on throws of 10+ air yards): 53.7%, 22nd
  • Defensive EPA per Play: -0.89, 31st 

A mediocre success rate but even lower EPA per play tells me that big plays are the problem. Essentially, the Patriots’ secondary (somewhat) limits intermediate throws on a down-to-down basis but gives up the explosive play every now and again. And them allowing a 41.5% explosive play rate (third-highest) confirms it. Plus, CB Carlton Davis, who’ll likely cover Golden, with CB Christian Gonzalez on Christian Watson, is working through a neck injury, setting Golden up for another big week. 

Sneaky WR/CB Matchups for Fantasy Football in Week 9

Recap: DJ Moore (WR13), Germie Bernard (WR42), Tre Tucker (WR74). Three of Bernard’s targets were on screens, and his other two were on short-area timing routes. Aaron Rodgers attempted just 6 passes of double-digit air yards. Three of them went to Darnell Washington. Tre Tucker also experienced a potential role shift. Jalen Nailor (17% target share, 11.0 aDOT in Week 8) has become the fourth short-intermediate option to go with Brock Bowers, Michael Mayer and Ashton Jeanty. He falls back into the boom-bust category for now.

Rashee Rice vs. Jets

Rice falls into that no-man’s-land of WR2s in our ranks after putting up a strong performance in his first week back from injury. But a couple of notes on his usage that should spark some interest.

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I sorted by target share to highlight Rice reclaiming his WR1 spot after a multi-week absence. But notice his weak snap and route rates (57% and 61%). Luckily, that sounds like it was by design.

Along with limited practice sessions, the Chiefs are smartly allowing Rice to ramp up. So even if we don’t see him on the field for every snap, his presence and usage signal intent. But how often he was running routes isn’t the only piece. Six of his eight targets came on slants or in-breaking routes. Like in years past, HC Andy Reid wanted to get the ball in Rice’s hands and let him work after the catch. That’s an ideal route deployment for any receiver facing the Jets.

  • Defensive EPA per Play (on MoF throws): 18th
  • Passing Success Rate: 19th 

Kirk Cousins threw to the MoF on 60.9% of his throws against the Jets last Sunday. Those attempts turned into 187 yards (75.7% of his total yards) and two TDs. The Jets nickel corner (Jarvis Brownlee) has already given up the 14th-most yards of any interior coverage CB. With Rice’s workload on the rise, he should be a favorite to find himself in the WR1 conversation after Week 9.

Rome Odunze vs. Buccaneers

Yes, I know I just talked about Luther Burden earlier. We’re allowed to like more than one pass catcher on the same team! But as I was going back through the Seattle game looking at Burden, something else stuck out.

I’m probably the only person who does this, but I look at the Bears’ offense (outside of Williams) in this order: their running game (i.e., D'Andre Swift), Burden, and Colston Loveland. Then I remember they have Rome Odunze as he snags a pass. And just like Burden, his role and production are starting to hit their stride with some stability at QB.

Target rate on the rise. Air yard share creeping up. Those are the things we want to see in a dependable fantasy receiver. But the clip from MNF emphasizes his utility to the offense. Look at the situation. The protection broke down, Williams had to reset his throwing platform, and throw to his open guy. Tampa has generated pressure on a third of its opponents’ dropbacks while blitzing at the fourth-highest rate over the last month. And in those scenarios, Williams hasn’t looked to too many other pass catchers.

  • Target Rate (when Williams pressured): 28.6% (Odunze)
  • Air Yard Share: 43.9%
  • Yards per Route Run: 2.18

Loveland has earned more looks, but Odunze has generated more yards and first downs. Assuming the Bucs will put Williams into a similar environment, looking to Odunze as an under-the-radar WR3 with upside makes sense.

Josh Downs vs. Cowboys

The “I-have-no-way-of-knowing-if-this-is-true” part of me wonders if the Colts will make a concerted effort to “showcase” Josh Downs after his trade request and ahead of the deadline. But it’s not like he’s been a featured part of the offense to date. 

Keenan Allen showed up in mid-August and stole the show. He’s out-targeted Downs in three of their last four games. However, if there ever were a matchup for Downs to shine, it’d be against Dallas.

  • YPG Allowed (to slot WRs): 30th
  • Passing Success Rate Allowed: 20th
  • Defensive EPA per Play Allowed: 27th 

Only the Chiefs and Lions are allowing more first downs per game when opposing teams target their slot WRs. And just the Eagles and Lions are giving up more catches to interior receivers through eight weeks. Downs might not have a chance to play against his brother, but either way, the setup is there for him to sneak into the Top 24 in Week 9.

Final Thought: I had Denzel Boston in here initially, but the QB switch and what the team listed as a calf injury kept him from being a full-throated recommendation for this weekend. However, if Boston’s healthy, he did lead the team in targets and air yards (yet again). Plus, WR1s are averaging 18.4 PPR PPG against the Saints. If things trend in the right direction for him, he’s a viable WR3 for this weekend. 

WR/CB Matchup to Avoid for Week 9

Recap: DK Metcalf (WR70). Three short-area concepts (screen, slant, hitch) and three go routes make up Metcalf’s route tree for Week 8. He’s a matchup-based starter, but should be worth playing against Cincinnati coming off his bye.

Michael Wilson at Seahawks

Honestly, my main concern for Michael Wilson is the change at QB.

Wilson’s targets were hovering around 20% for three weeks after the Marvin Harrison trade. But everything went back to “normal” against Dallas. Even in the first half, with Jacoby Brissett still under center, Wilson commanded a 36.8% target share. And that stayed the same through the fourth quarter and OT with Gardner Minshew. But I have my concerns about Minshew long term and especially this upcoming week.

  • Brissett (last 17 starts): 18.3% (Pressure-to-Sack Ratio), +0.26 (CPOE)
  • Minshew: 23.0%, -1.27%

We’ve seen Minshew have drive-killing sacks or an errant throw or two ruin a series many times. And playing against the Seahawks, who’ve generated the second-highest pressure rate on enemy QB dropbacks, isn’t the best environment for a QB with just a week of practice as the starter. As such, I’d lower expectations for Wilson in Week 9.

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