The 6 best words in the English language: "Seven hours of commercial free football..."
In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by BetMGM:
- Morning Download: Pete gets you caught up
- Basically-Free Money From BetMGM
- Eliot's 2 favorite DFS Stacks
- SNF Preview: Our Picks & Top Plays
- Player Matchups: Dameon Pierce & Mike Williams
- It’s 9/12. Take it away, Peter Overzet…
Hello, there. We know you have a very busy schedule today, so we won't waste any time.
Here's everything you need to know to set the perfect Week 1 lineup, including all of the most important overnight news...
First off, if you have any specific start/sit questions I highly recommend consulting our free Fantasy Life rankings and/or projections, or our start/sit tool!
I also would bookmark our NFL inactives page and our Twitter account so you don't miss any late-breaking news at 11:30am ET.
📁George Kittle is not expected to play.
Kittle suffered a groin injury in practice on Monday and hasn't practiced since. The team is smartly proceeding with caution this early in the season. Considering the rough weather on tap in Chicago and the 41.5 o/u, I imagine the Niners will lean heavily on the run game in Kittle's absence (I love Eli Mitchell as a start & DFS play). Both Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk should get a small target boost, as well. If you're in need of a TE replacement, here are some interesting names who might be available: Mo Alie-Cox, Isaiah Likely, Jonnu Smith, and Trey McBride (more on him in a sec).
📁Chris Godwin will play, but on a pitch count.
Godwin is officially listed as questionable, but he is expected to suit up vs. the Cowboys. Adam Schefter notes he could be on a pitch count. Because that game isn't until tonight, I don't think you can risk it unless your alternatives are really weak. I'd prefer to play the Packers veterans (Sammy Watkins or Randall Cobb) or rookies with some upside (George Pickens, Wandale Robinson, etc.). We should know a lot more about his future playing time and true health after Week 1.
📁Zach Ertz will play, but is questionable.
Ertz has been dealing with a calf injury and missed some practices earlier this week, but is expected to play vs. the Chiefs as long as he doesn't suffer any pregame setbacks. As Stephania Bell notes here, the question is how much will he play. The Cardinals are extremely thin at pass catcher with Rondale Moore injured and DeAndre Hopkins suspended. I'm willing to play Ertz, though I'd keep the rookie TE McBride on speed dial if, for some reason Ertz is a surprise inactive.
📁Michael Thomas and Drake London are good to go.
There was some uncertainty on both of these guys earlier in the week, but both Thomas (hamstring) and London (knee) will face off against each other, per Schefter. I'm starting both where I have them.
For a full breakdown of all the injuries on this slate, including notes on Kenneth Walker and Logan Thomas, ESPN has a nice rundown here.
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🚁 The WR going for 8-113-2 today. The chopper predictions are back.
🙏🏽 Brian Robinson could be back very soon. More good news on the Commanders rookie RB.
🤑 The best Week 1 DFS advice you'll find. One Week Season has you covered.
🤣 Now this is how you heckle Nick Saban. Fantasy football is everywhere.
🎛️ Aaron Rodgers: Green Bay QB or Ibizan DJ. Could go either way.
🤵 Who wore it best? Najee Harris or Cher Horowitz?
👋 Lamar Jackson turns down massive contract. This will be interesting to track.
When playing DFS we want to correlate our lineups because it means we have to get fewer things right. Tournaments have such top-heavy payout structures that when you are right, you want to be right in a big way. That’s where stacking teams and games come into play. Today, Eliot shares two of his games to stack...
🚀 Lamar Jackson > Rashod Bateman (Bring back: Elijah Moore)
Earlier in the week, I wrote up the over 44.5 as one of my favorite bets, which naturally has me coming back for more. Jackson is our highest projected scoring QB on the week due to his massive upside on the ground. However, he can also do serious damage in the air as well. The Jets' defense was 31st in explosive pass rate (passes of 15+ yards) last season and were dead last in EPA/Play against the pass.
The Ravens traded star receiver Marquise Brown in the offseason, who led all Ravens receivers with 145 targets last year. With Brown out of the picture, the Ravens have gone all in on last years first round pick, WR Rashod Bateman. At Fantasy Life, we spent the entire offseason discussing attacking second-year receivers in your drafts, and that continues in week one with Bateman and his runback Elijah Moore.
Last year Moore dominated without Zach Wilson on the field, going for 9 catches, 141 yards, and a TD in one game with Joe Flacco as his QB. I mentioned above that the Jets were second worst in explosive pass rate allowed; well, the Ravens were dead last. I expect big plays in the passing game and Moore is the likeliest beneficiary on the Jets side of the ball.
🚀 Kirk Cousins > Justin Jefferson (Bring back: Aaron Jones)
Gone is head coach Mike Zimmer and his run-first philosophy; in steps Sean McVay disciple Kevin O'Connell. Expect the Vikings to be pass-happy this season. Our own Matthew Berry is extremely high on the upside of the offense.
When you have a philosophy change, the best time to take advantage of that is before the market adjusts. According to our partners at Run the Sims, Kirk Cousins has projected ownership of just 3.7% on the main slate. BetMGM is respecting Cousins’ potential volume uptick, setting his pass attempt prop line at 35.5. In the last two seasons, Cousins is averaging over 300 passing yards per game when he throws at least 35 passes.
In those games, star receiver Justin Jefferson is seeing over 10 targets per game and averaging 103 receiving yards per game. He steps into the Cooper Kupp role in this offense, and as we saw last season and Thursday Night - that should equal a massive workload.
The Vikings aren’t the only ones with a major change this offseason, as the Packers traded Davante Adams. The likely biggest beneficiary early on will be Aaron Jones, who is averaging nearly 6 targets per game and 23.1 PPR points per game.
Every Sunday we'll highlight two interesting matchups you should be aware of before setting your lineup. Take it away, Kevin...
🥶Dameon Pierce vs. IND
Pierce's meteoric rise has been a sight to behold during training camp. The only way the hype can get even higher is by asking for his jacket size as we anoint him a Hall of Famer before even taking a snap in the NFL.
The play this week (put your pitchforks away!) is to sit Pierce against a Colts’ defense that led the AFC in takeaways in 2021, added Yannick Ngakoue to an already stout front-seven, and should have a field day against Houston, who sports one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. Shaquille Leonard, the Colts’ stud linebacker, was ruled out for Week 1, but I’m still wary of trusting Pierce this week.
Add in the fact that the Texans (against the urging of fantasy managers who drafted him) are unlikely to give Pierce a hefty workload. Rex Burkhead should be plenty involved, especially in the passing game. Pierce will have weeks where you feel good about starting him, but I’m hesitant to start him this week unless I’m desperate.
🥵️ Mike Williams vs. LV
The Raiders/Chargers game has the highest over/under total (52.5 points per BetMGM) of the slate, so we want pieces of this game in our fantasy lineups.
Sometimes, fantasy can be really easy. “Play guy in the highest-scoring matchup.”
Williams should see plenty of Raiders CB Anthony Averett across from him, and it’s a match made in heaven. Averett allowed over 50 yards per game and 14.2 yards per completion in his coverage in 2021.
Williams’ aDOT shortened last season to 12.0 as he earned the most targets in his career. Gone are the days of Williams being a high-aDOT deep threat WR that you hope gets into the end zone to have a good week. He can do it with target volume now too. Keenan Allen is getting older, and there could be a flippening between Williams and Allen this season as the Chargers’ top target. Week 1 could be the launch pad.
Williams is an easy play this weekend in a game that should be an exciting, up-and-down scoring affair.
