We are getting close to "best shape of their life" szn...
In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter:
- Don't sleep on these 3 rookie RBs...
- OverReaction Monday: Doubling down on a polarizing TE
- The Ravens WR to target
- Awards Bets: Hello, rookies...
- It's 5/8. Take it away, Peter Overzet...
I don’t need to sell you on Bijan Robinson or Jahmyr Gibbs delivering high-end fantasy value in 2023, but the real mission is to find this year’s Dameon Pierce or Tyler Allgeier–aka the rookie RB going late in drafts who goes on to smash their ADP.
Here are three rookie RBs who recently got gassed up by someone in their organization and are worth paying attention to in the later rounds of your drafts…
🐝 Kendre Miller, Saints (Current ADP: 138.9)
"It all goes back to height, weight and speed. Loved his running style. He’s a down-hill runner, runs with great pad level. He's got explosive breakaway speed in the open field. He's creative. He makes people miss... And we just felt like, man, this is too good to be true…This was a guy we were on pretty early and loved the tape, and I think he's got a huge upside.
Saints Assistant GM, Jeff Ireland
Action: Kendre Miller is a priority target for me in early Underdog drafts. There are so many “outs” to him hitting in Year 1. He could have an immediate role if Alvin Kamara is suspended to start the year–a likely possibility.
He could see his role grow as the season progresses, a la Allgeier last year. Or he could simply force his way onto the field if the aging Kamara or Jamaal Williams aren’t offering enough explosiveness between the tackles.
I don’t see how his ADP doesn’t rise at least a couple rounds from here.
🐝 Zach Evans, Rams (Current ADP: 203.6)
“And then there’s certain exceptions when you feel like, alright, he is a back that has some special traits and so then you go up...You could really see he’s a smooth runner. He’s got a seamless ability to be able to work edges on people. And we felt like it was a good fit just based on looking at everybody that was possibly available.”
Rams head coach, Sean McVay
Action: Zach Evans doesn’t have the draft capital to bank on any Year 1 production, but the combination of a) a fairly wide open depth chart and b) the team trading up to get him, offers some hope.
Evans was a five-star recruit who never fully lived up to the hype, but he could easily surpass 2022 fifth-rounder Kyren Williams on the depth chart. That would make him a single Cam Akers injury away from being the lead back on the Rams.
That’s certainly worth the occasional last-round dart throw in drafts.
🐝 Deuce Vaughn, Cowboys (Current ADP: 210.3)
"Getting a guy that can win in space, create their own space, and do explosive things. Adding him as a weapon was a huge deal."
Cowboys personnel director, Will McClay
Action: Vaughn is never going to be a lead back with his size, but the Cowboys have historically trotted out extremely thin RB rooms–Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott were often the only two active RBs on game days.
If the Cowboys give Vaughn a handful of carries a game while also manufacturing some gadget touches for him, he could offer some best ball-friendly spike weeks. He’s not a priority target, but I don’t mind tossing him onto Dak Prescott teams with a last-round pick.
We're humans who play fantasy football, which means we are prone to overreact. Today, Kendall explains how she is prepared to get hurt again...
💔 I am ready to be hurt again by Kyle Pitts
I know, I know. These are the conversations that are ending friendships right now. When the question of “which players do you refuse to let hurt you again” comes up there are a few names we can list: Cam Akers, Jonathan Taylor, Russell Wilson.
The one that always feels personal, though, is none other than Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts.
Pitts suffered a knee injury in Week 11 and was sidelined for the remainder of the season, but our tribulations started way before that. Succeeding in Arthur Smith’s offense in 2022 was going to be nearly impossible for the tight end. According to PFF, Pitts had the worst catchable target rate of any tight end with at least 200 routes last season — only 59% were deemed catchable.
Listen, I will not be sitting here fully advocating for Pitts in 2023 because many questions are yet to be answered.
Is Desmond Ridder the long-term answer at quarterback for the Falcons? What does the addition of superstar running back Bijan Robinson mean for this offense?
In four games, Ridder completed 63.5% of his passes for 708 passing yards and two touchdowns. And, of course no one needs to tell you about the generational talent in Robinson. But there is something to be said for betting on talent and hoping it works out for your fantasy team.
Come on, he caught 28 of his 59 targets last season. Pitts also had the No. 1 TPRR (27%) and explosive target rate (45%) out of all tight ends with at least 200 routes last year.
You’re getting Pitts at a discount right now (rightfully so) and I want to believe after hitting fantasy rock-bottom last year that this Falcons team will put more pieces together to be functional.
ESPN’s Field Yates has Pitts as one of his 2023 breakouts. Our very own Dwain McFarland released his Top 150 Fantasy Football Rankings last week and has the tight end ranked 49 compared to an Underdog ADP of 60.
Call me crazy, but I’ll take some shots at Pitts this offseason and hope for the best. It can’t get much worse…right? RIGHT?!
🎯 The best Ravens WR to target at ADP. Dwain makes a convincing case.
🐻 Fields to DJ Moore. Get used to seeing this.
⭕ Why D'Andre Swift chose the number 0. Lots of joke potential here.
🔭 Our first look at Anthony Richardson. Oh baby.
😎 Winners & losers from each NFL team. Fantasy nuggets you need to know.
🧀 Could this Packers rookie make an impact in Year 1? Absolutely.
🗽 Man admires statue of himself. Must be nice.
🧢 Is Baker Mayfield better than any QB in the 2023 draft? I believe the kids call "cap" on stuff like this.
The early odds are already available for the 2023 season, so it's time to check out the futures markets for some awards. Take it away, Geoff & Lamarca...
🔮 Defensive Player of the Year – Nick Bosa (+1000)
This is an award that is typically dominated by two things: pass rushers and the chalk.
Nine of the previous 11 winners have gotten after the quarterback, with Luke Kuechly and Stephon Gilmore standing out as the lone exceptions. Eight of the past nine winners have also entered the year at +1400 or lower, so history suggests you should focus on the top pass-rushers.
Bosa currently sits fourth in odds despite being the best player on the best defense in football. That’s part of the reason why he won the award last season, along with his 18.5 sacks.
He may not be the “best” defender in the league – Myles Garrett has the best Pro Football Focus grade among edge defenders in back-to-back years – but playing for an elite defensive team matters.
Cleveland doesn’t figure to get to that mark next season, but the 49ers should be as good as ever on that side of the ball. - LaMarca
🔮 Offensive Rookie of the Year – Anthony Richardson (+900)
This a great potential buy low spot on Richardson.
Part of the reason why his odds trail the other two first-round quarterbacks is the fact that the Colts signed a capable backup in Gardner Minshew.
When asked about Minshew’s role new head coach Shane Steichen stated he was there to “just compete and be the best he can be”. Clearly the Colts are leaving a wide avenue open for Richardson to grab the starting role.
Steichen’s RPO-based offensive scheme produced back-to-back seasons of 750+ rushing yards and 10+ TDs from Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts – a fact that will get talked about more and more as the season gets closer.
If Richardson claims the starting role in training camp I would expect his odds to move closer to Stroud and potentially even surpass him as second favorite. Run, don't walk to BetMGM, and get this bet in. - Geoff
🔮 Defensive Rookie of the Year – Deonte Banks (+2000)
Banks is a fast, physical corner who clocked a 4.35 at the combine. He doesn’t have a ton of college tape as he missed significant time with a shoulder injury – which is the main reason the Giants were able to snag him with the 24th overall pick.
He’ll also be playing for a New York-based team (big market) and has a catchy nickname – “Tae”. Remind you of anyone?
There is no doubt that Banks has a lot of similarities to 2022 DROY Sauce Gardner and will likely be put in a position to take on opposing teams number one WRs from the get-go in New York.
If he succeeds, and the Giants show improvement from their 22nd ranked defense of 2022 (by points allowed per game), the attention meter on Tae will be off the charts and these odds may plummet fast. - Geoff
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