🏆 Super Bowl 54 Rematch!

by Matthew Freedman

1 year ago

Time is a flat circle …

In today’s Betting Life newsletter presented by Betting Life on YouTube:

Super Bowl 54 Redux: Not really … but sort of …
Unexpected Points: Chiefs win by adjusted FG.
No NFL? No problem. We’ve got you covered with NBA best bets.
Early Lines: Look to the 49ers.
It’s 1/29: Take it away, Matthew Freedman …

When I started writing this edition of the newsletter, the Lions had a 24-7 lead over the 49ers in the NFC Championship. The title was “Chiefs. Lions. Again.”

The subtitle: “Time is a flat circle.”

What can I say?

Fate — and not to mention the 49ers, HC Kyle Shanahan, QB Brock Purdy, and Lions CB Kindle Vildor’s facemask — had other plans.

So here we are: Chiefs. 49ers. Again.

🤝 Super Bowl 54 Rematch

I imagine a lot will be made of the fact that the Chiefs and 49ers played each other four years ago in the Super Bowl, which the Chiefs won 31-20 to give HC Andy Reid and QB Patrick Mahomes their first championship.

But while this game might be marketed as a “rematch,” these two teams have changed markedly since February 2020.

⏳ The More Things Change …

Both teams have entirely new offensive lines. None of the OL starters have persisted.

Both teams have new RB rooms and secondaries. The Chiefs have a rebuilt WR corps. The 49ers have a new QB.

For the Chiefs, just four starters from that championship team remain, and one of them — DT Derrick Nnadi (tricep, IR) — is out for the Super Bowl.

The 49ers have seven surviving starters — more than the Chiefs — but the supermajority of the team has rolled over.

For many of the players on the current rosters, what happened four years ago is meaningless: These are not the 2019-20 Chiefs and 49ers.

🔁 The More They Stay the Same

That said … these teams still have the same DNA.

For the Chiefs, the three starters who remain are Mahomes, TE Travis Kelce, and DT Chris Jones. You know, the three most important players on the team.

For the 49ers, the seven retained starters are among the team’s top 12 most important: FB Kyle Juszczyk, WR Deebo Samuel, TE George Kittle, DL Arik Armstead, EDGE Nick Bosa, and LBs Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw.

On offense, Juszczyk, Samuel, and Kittle enable the 49ers to be so insistently multiple. On defense, Armstead, Bosa, Warner, and Greenlaw provide the muscle.

And — let’s be honest — how different is Purdy from departed starting QB Jimmy Garoppolo anyway? He’s a living Spider-Man meme.

Reid and Shanahan are still the HCs, and the Chiefs still have DC Steve Spagnuolo.

These teams are admittedly different. The Chiefs no longer have WR Tyreek Hill, and No. 1 CB Charvarius Ward defected in 2022 to the 49ers, who have added RB Christian McCaffrey, WR Brandon Aiyuk, and LT Trent Williams (as well as Purdy) since Super Bowl 54.

These teams are different — like the people you dated in high school.

They’ve changed.

But in most of the ways that matter … they’re the same.

✌️ Super Bowl 58 Projections & Bets

Intelligent degenerate that I am (hopefully), I have projections for the Super Bowl spread, total, and moneyline.

Spread: 49ers -0.75
Total: 46.7
ML: 49ers -106.5, Chiefs +106.5

And naturally, I already have bets on the side and total.

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Kevin Cole is the proprietor of Unexpected Points, and each week he provides his “adjusted scores” for every game based on the underlying production data. Here is an excerpt from his advanced game reviews for the NFC Championship.

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special teams, penalties, fumble luck, etc.).

📊 Adjusted Scores Table

“Pass”: Pass rate over expectation (based on the context of each play and historical averages)
“Success”: Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs. actual score
“H & A”: Home or away team

💪 Ravens vs. Chiefs

Final Score: 10-17
Adjusted Score: 19-22

Before running the numbers, I thought the adjusted scores might have this even closer than the three-point differential given, mainly reflecting the Ravens gaining a yard-and-a-half more per play than the Chiefs (5.9 to 4.4) and the game being decided completely by higher variance turnovers and third-down conversions. The Ravens lost 15 expected points on their INT and two fumbles, and they converted only 3-of-11 third downs, a rate 22% below expectations, after converting at a rate over expectation during the rest of the season.

However, the Ravens’ offensive efficiency (excluding turnovers) was primarily driven by a handful of big plays, which are also discounted in the adjusted scores model. The Ravens passing production was particularly chunky, only completing 20-of-37 passes, gaining 123 of their total 272 passing yards on three plays of 30-plus yards. Even the Ravens’ running success (90th percentile EPA efficiency, 5.1 YPC) was built on an unimpressive 40% success rate.

You could make the argument that the adjusted scores undervalue the offensive game of the Chiefs, being that they relied more heavily on the run while playing with a multi-score lead for most of the game and weren’t good at all when handing off the ball. The Chiefs dropped back to pass at a 68% rate in the first half, which lowered to under 60% in the second half, with the halves’ dropbacks falling from 32 to 18, while designed runs went from only 15 to 12.

The Chiefs’ passing efficiency went from excellent to poor by half (+0.41 EPA per play to -0.17), but their rushing efficiency was equally bad in both halves. In the first half, the Chiefs had poor rushing efficiency mostly due to a failed 4th & 1 conversion attempt on the Ravens 13-yard-line (-3.6 EPA), whereas in the second they simply couldn’t do anything positive, losing EPA on all but two attempts.

It was a frustrating watch for pass supremacists seeing the Chiefs playing the second half as if they didn’t think the Ravens could make up a 10-point deficit, even if Andy Reid was proven right. For me, I think this was a massive mistake, and could have cost them the game if a couple of turnovers didn’t go their way. Luckily for the Chiefs they only needed Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce utilized to full capacity for one half in order to score enough points to win.

Mahomes didn’t produce outstanding efficiency on his 50 dropbacks and designed runs, but +0.20 EPA per play was plenty strong. The Chiefs offense was methodical moving down the field on their early drives, and Mahomes finished with a +13.6% completion rate over expected, his second-best result, only trailing last week’s +18.2% against the Bills.

There’s not much more you can say about the greatness of Mahomes at this point. Even if there is a bit of luck in the timing of how he stepped up his play this season, you can’t write off the significance of Mahomes having his best games when the lights are brightest. His EPA per play has jumped to +0.35 in this postseason from a “down” regular season of +0.13. It’s not hyperbole to say he’s easily on the path to being the greatest of all time.

⛏️ 49ers ML vs. Chiefs

Current Line: -118, FanDuel
Target Range: -120 or better

Most weeks, I head into this column with a pretty good idea of how I’m going to attack each game. That said, this ain’t most weeks. There’s only one game to choose from, and it features two teams that are tough to handicap at the moment.

Let’s start with the Chiefs. They played possum on offense during the regular season, ranking 11th in EPA/play, 15th in points, and ninth in yards. There were legit questions about whether QB Patrick Mahomes had enough ammunition to survive against teams like the Bills and Ravens.

They looked significantly better in the first two rounds of the playoffs, but both of those performances came with caveats. The Dolphins were missing their top five sack-getters from the regular season, while the Bills had multiple injuries in their back seven.

I was skeptical that they could produce at the same level vs. the Ravens, and that was true to an extent. The Chiefs managed only 17 points and were outgained by the Ravens, but that was still enough to secure the win. Kansas City’s defense played phenomenally against the presumptive MVP Lamar Jackson, and they forced the Ravens into three turnovers.

On the other side, the 49ers put themselves into a 17-point deficit heading into halftime vs. Detroit. However, they responded with 27 unanswered points and held on to a three-point win.

The 49ers clearly played better in the second half, but they also ran insanely pure. The Lions had two failed fourth-down conversions, one of which hit Josh Reynolds right in the numbers. They secured a fumble deep in Detroit territory. Brandon Aiyuk caught a 51-yard pass that deflected off a defender's facemask.

The 49ers were able to capitalize off of their good luck, but the odds of all of that happening again are basically zero.

So how do you choose between two teams with inconsistent resumes? I’m personally going to trust the longer body of work of the 49ers.

Kyle Shanahan should take note of how the Ravens played last week. I have no idea why the team with the best rushing attack in the NFL chose not to run the ball vs. Kansas City. It was a mind-boggling decision. The Chiefs were third in dropback EPA but 28th in rushing EPA during the regular season.

The game was never really out of reach for Baltimore, yet they still had just 16 carries compared to 37 pass attempts. The Ravens’ two primary RBs — Gus Edwards and Justice Hill — had just six totes, combined. No team ran the ball at a higher frequency than the Ravens during the regular season, yet they completely went away from it in their most important game of the year.

Don’t expect the 49ers to do the same. If anything, Shanahan is known for being too conservative with his playcalling. He would love to give the ball to Christian McCaffrey as much as humanly possible.

If the 49ers offense can hum at the same efficiency they had during the regular season, I’m not sure that Kansas City can keep up. That feels crazy to say about a Mahomes-led offense, but it’s been the case for most of the year. Their defense was the reason they survived vs. the Ravens, and I don’t think you can beat San Francisco if you score only 17 points.

With the way the line is set currently, I think the 49ers moneyline provides the best value. They’ve been the better team throughout the full 21-week season, and they’ve survived a couple of scares. Fading Mahomes and Andy Reid is terrifying — particularly with extra time to prepare — but I’m going to trust the longer sample size and lean 49ers.

More Lines to LOCK IN EARLY!

Matthew Freedman