In today's Betting Life Newsletter:
Now that the NFL schedule has been out for roughly a week, we’ve had more time to dive fully into it. In general, the rest disparity isn’t nearly as bad as it was last year. Only six teams have a rest advantage of at least 7+ days—including all four teams in the NFC West—while five teams have a rest disadvantage of -7 days.
Lion Hearted
Interestingly, one of the best teams from last season stands out as the bigger winner in 2025. The Lions won the most games in the NFL last year (tied with the Eagles), and now no team will have a bigger rest edge in the upcoming season.
However, the Lions also underwent a pretty tumultuous offseason, losing both offensive coordinator Ben Johnson and defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn to head coaching gigs. They’ll also have to navigate a bear of a schedule: they have the third-toughest projected group of opponents based on preseason win totals.
It makes them a fascinating team to target in the futures market. Can the Lions build on last year’s success, or will they take a step back?
Additionally, the NBA playoffs have moved on to the final four teams. It includes four teams that have not made it to this stage of the playoffs very often. The Knicks' last championship came in 1973, while the Thunder won their only championship as the Seattle Supersonics in 1979. The Pacers have zero championships with just one appearance, coming all the way back in 2000, while the Timberwolves have never made it past the conference finals. Ultimately, it means that one fan base will get to celebrate in a way that hasn’t happened in a very long time.
The Thunder have emerged as considerable favorites, and they took a 1-0 lead over the Timberwolves on Tuesday night. Is there any betting value left with OKC, and if not, is there a potential pivot that makes sense?
Let’s dive in.
What’s going on around the NFL and more with our merry band of sports nerds!
📺 Get the latest Fantasy Life YouTube shows and shorts right here.
💪 Strength of schedule matters for betting and fantasy. Geoff Ulrich highlights a few QBs who could surprise.
🦬🐬 Can anyone knock off the Bills? Ian Hartitz breaks down the 2025 outlook for the Bills and Dolphins.
🍽 They say revenge is a dish best served cold. These players will have the opportunity to serve it up in 2025.
📈 Keeping up with the latest trends is important. Sam Wallace looks at some recent developments in dynasty leagues.
🍑 Great news for the Eagles. The “tush push” is still on the menu for at least one more season.
🏀 It’s official: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been named the NBA MVP.
⚾ The Tigers have been in the American League since 1901, and this might be one of their best starts in team history.
Pride Of The Lions
The Lions are coming off a truly remarkable season. They played in one of the toughest divisions in football, yet they still managed to win 15 games during the regular season. They were second in total yardage and third in yardage differential, and they possessed arguably the best offense in the NFL. Detroit could run the ball at will behind their dominant offensive line, while Jared Goff was incredibly efficient when he took to the air. He posted career-best marks in completion percentage, adjusted yards per attempt, and touchdown rate, giving them one of the most complete attacks in football.
The scary thing is that the Lions could be even better next year. Their defense was absolutely obliterated by injuries down the stretch. It started when they lost Aidan Hutchinson to injury after he was making a case to be the Defensive Player of the Year. He had 7.5 sacks in just five games, and despite missing the team’s final 12 contests, he still led the team in that department. He was ultimately joined on the IR by countless teammates on that side of the ball, leaving their defense in shambles heading into the playoffs.
Detroit’s banged-up stop unit was exposed by Jayden Daniels and the Commanders in the playoffs, but that shouldn’t erase what was a tremendous season from Dan Campbell’s squad. With some better injury luck, they should be able to pick up right where they left off.
For the most part, the core pieces for this squad remain intact. They did lose Carlton Davis this offseason, but they replaced him by signing D.J. Reed away from the Jets. Reed had a slightly down year in his final year with Gang Green, but he still finished 31st in the PFF cornerback rankings. He had a top-16 ranking in three of the previous four seasons, so that could end up being a bit of an upgrade.
The big question is how they will handle the loss of their two coordinators, especially against a brutal schedule. Personally, I think the impact of coordinators can be a bit overblown. Ben Johnson is undoubtedly a brilliant offensive coach, but we’ve seen plenty of examples of those coaches floundering in new organizations. New OC John Morton previously served under Johnson, so he should be familiar with the general philosophy. The same is true with new DC Kelvin Sheppard, who was promoted after serving as their linebackers coach.
As long as Dan Campbell is helming the ship, leadership should never be an issue in Detroit. Just like with Bill Belichick in New England and Andy Reid in Kansas City, great head coaches have a tendency to make their coordinators look elite. I’m not putting Campbell quite on that pedestal yet, but he checks all the boxes that you look for to lead an organization.
The schedule is the bigger issue, but that could end up being overblown as well. After all, the team successfully navigated the seventh-toughest schedule last year; is moving down a few places really all that big a deal?
The cherry on top is the way the schedule has been laid out. The Lions have the biggest rest edge in the entire league, and they’ll have a rest advantage on eight separate occasions. That’s a massive anomaly. No team has previously had even seven games with a rest edge in a single season, so the Lions have benefited tremendously compared to their peers. Detroit has gone 6-2 straight up and against the spread with a rest edge over the past two seasons, so that should help significantly.
Three of their toughest opponents on the 2025 calendar—the Chiefs, Bengals, and Eagles—will all come in a week where the team has additional time to rest and prepare. That could be a massive edge in those contests.
Additionally, Detroit will only be at a rest disadvantage once, and it will be just a one-day disadvantage. That game will come early in the season (Week 4) against a subpar squad (the Browns), so it shouldn’t impact them too much.
So, how do we take advantage? It starts with a play on Over 10.5 wins, which is available at -110 across most of the industry. That said, I’m taking it a step further. You can grab the Lions at +1800 on DraftKings to finish with the most wins in the NFL. That’s simply too big a number for me to ignore. They’ve won at least 12 games in back-to-back seasons, and I see no reason why they can’t do it again in 2025. If they do, you can definitely send a thank you card to the schedule-makers.
Bets: Lions Over 10.5 Wins (-110; BetMGM), Lions to Finish With the Most Wins (+1800; DraftKings)
NBA Playoffs Betting Update
Before the start of the second round, I recommended grabbing the Thunder to win the West at -180. It’s a pretty big number, but after surviving in a closer-than-expected series vs. the Nuggets, it’s one that has plenty of value. The Thunder have moved to -650 to win the conference, and they’re as high as -250 to win the championship.
That makes sense. The Thunder had a historically good season, racking up 68 wins with one of the best Net Ratings in NBA history. Their two biggest challengers to their throne—the Celtics and Cavaliers—have already bowed out in the East. It leaves them with a clear path to the title, and after picking up a win in Game 1 vs. the Timberwolves, they appear destined for a date with the Larry O’Brien Trophy. Whoever wins the East will have a say, but neither the Knicks nor the Pacers are really in the same weight class statistically.
So, if you’ve missed out on the Thunder so far and are still looking to get on board, what is the best way to do so? Most of the numbers out there aren’t particularly appealing, but there’s still one way to grab some exposure to the team at a decent figure.
You can get Shai Gilgeous-Alexander at -190 to win the Finals MVP on DraftKings, and that’s a pretty fair number all things considered. They’re not available at less than -200 to win the championship, and those numbers are only going to increase if they pick up a win in Game 2 vs. Minnesota.
If the Thunder win the title, it’s highly likely that SGA takes home the MVP. There have been some exceptions in recent years, but the best player on the winning team almost always takes home the hardware. Getting SGA at any sort of discount compared to the team’s odds feels like a bit of a value.
The gap between Gilgeous-Alexander and the rest of the roster is pretty sizable. There is no Jaylen Brown-level threat capable of stealing the award away. There’s no LeBron James on the other side that needs to be shut down defensively and opens the door for an Andre Iguodala-type to sneak in.
No, if the Thunder win the title, SGA is going to win the MVP 99 times out of 100. Maybe that’s an aggressive estimate, but he’s averaged nearly 10 more points than each of his teammates during the postseason. He was the MVP of the league, and it’s nearly impossible to imagine the voters giving the credit to someone other than him should the Thunder take care of business.
Ultimately, if you’re still looking to hop on the bandwagon—and I suggest you do if you haven’t already done so—Gilgeous-Alexander to win Finals MVP feels like your best option.
