A flex isn't cool. You know what's cool? A superflex...
In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Underdog Fantasy:
- Hot best ball summer: Fantasy Life 🤝 Underdog Fantasy
- 3 ways to stack Pete's favorite QB in drafts
- A Fantasy Life teaser
- A sleeper rookie RB
- Fantasy Points: Aaron Rodgers vs. Russell Wilson
- Draft strategy for Underdog's "Puppy but Superflex" contest
- Team preview: San Francisco 49ers
- It’s 6/29. Take it away, Peter Overzet…
There's never been a better time to be a fantasy drafter. Gone are the days of having to wait until late August and early September to draft our teams.
Thanks to best ball, and more importantly, thanks to Underdog Fantasy, we can draft to our heart's content (re: until our hands are too calloused to draft anymore).
In addition to their massive Best Ball Mania III contest with $2,000,000 to first, they recently opened a $5 Superflex contest as well.
In today's QB-themed, newsletter Pete shares his favorite QB to stack right now, our friends at Fantasy Points settle an Aaron Rodgers vs. Russell Wilson debate, and Jonathan talks through Superflex-specific draft strategies. Dig in...
Professor Pete shares three different ways to stack his favorite team in Underdog drafts...
In Monday’s newsletter, we discussed why stacking is an important thing we should be prioritizing in drafts–specifically large field best ball tournaments like Underdog’s Best Ball Mania III.
So today I wanted to dive into some of the different ways we can execute stacking in our drafts while using the San Francisco 49ers as an example.
Anyone can tell you to stack Josh Allen with Stefon Diggs or Patrick Mahomes with Travis Kelce, but to successfully navigate our draft rooms and select players at good values, we’ll need to get creative with how we stack teams.
The Niners are a particularly interesting team to stack because they currently have 5 players going before pick 90 and then only one other player until pick 162:
They are also unique in that 1) Trey Lance has an extremely wide range of outcomes and massive rushing potential and 2) Kyle Shanahan is known to be erratic and fickle with his player usage (RBs come out of nowhere, Brandon Aiyuk was essentially benched to start the season last year, etc.).
This uncertainty is something we want to embrace because the ceiling outcomes for this team are sky high.
When it comes to stacking the Niners, the temptation is to only grab Lance when you’ve secured one of Deebo Samuel or George Kittle–something I think is completely viable–but we also should be open to other unique stacking configurations.
🍦 The Traditional Niners Stack (1 of Deebo Samuel or George Kittle with Trey Lance)
I consider both Samuel (mid Round 2) and Kittle (4/5 turn) to be extreme values in drafts right now. Samuel was otherworldly last season and finished as the WR3. Kittle had a “disappointing” season due to inconsistency, but still finished as the TE3 and flashed his massive upside with back-to-back 30+ point PPR games in Weeks 13 and 14.
Anytime you select one of Samuel or Kittle you should be honing in on Lance as a QB selection after Hurts comes off the board as the QB6.
🚪 The Backdoor Stack (Trey Lance with Brandon Aiyuk and Jauan Jennings)
Lance offers drafters such an insane ceiling that we shouldn’t pass him up even if we don’t have one of his premium stack options.
I don’t recommend reaching for unstacked Lance, but if you’re able to get him at or around his current Underdog ADP (88) and have yet to select a QB, it’s a strong selection.
If you have a late pick, you can often grab both Lance and Aiyuk at the 7/8 turn and then wait until the end of the draft to target another Niners pass catcher like Jauan Jennings. I was drafting rookie WR Danny Gray earlier in the offseason, but ESPN’s Nick Wagoner tabbed Jennings as the Niners offseason standout player and noted his “easy chemistry” with Lance.
🧠 The Galaxy Brain Stack (Trey Lance, Tyrion Davis-Price, and two Raiders)
If you’re willing to indulge some galaxy braining, we can attack the Niners stack creatively:
* A naked Lance - (it’s a DFS term that means without a pass catcher, relax). The strongest stacking correlations are between QBs and their pass catchers, but Lance’s rushing ability gives us some flexibility in how we stack him. If he puts up big rushing numbers, it means he’s likely passing less and is racking up individual points that don’t rely on correlation.
* Tyrion Davis-Price. - The Niners, like the Patriots, have historically been a team where we want to draft the cheapest RB because of Shanahan’s tomfoolery. Last year we saw rookie Eli Mitchell come out of nowhere to lead the team in rushing. In 2020 it was Jeff Wilson Jr. In 2018 it was Matt Breida. Davis-Price is cheap and earned rave reviews from the front office so it shouldn’t surprise anyone if he has a role right out of the gate.
* 2 Raiders - Ok, here’s where we get can really gal brain. The Niners play the Raiders in Week 17, and since the majority of the money in BBM3 goes to the top 5 finishers in the 470-person grouping, we can think about the game from a DFS perspective. In this scenario, we’d be playing for a game where the Niners are succeeding on the ground and the Raiders are playing catch up. This is an advanced best ball concept and something we’ll discuss in the coming weeks in our Monday best ball strategy deep dives.
Until then, hop on Underdog and stack the Niners with me. Fantasy Life readers can get up to a $100 deposit match with promo code LIFE.
On Monday we gave you a little peek at our new website. Today we go behind the curtain a bit more...👀
Our launch date is 7/5, and we can't wait to show you what we've been working on!
🤔 Could Baker Mayfield return to the Browns? Here's your answer, straight from the horse's mouth.
❓ TRIVIA: Which QB has thrown 38 TDs and 0 INTs against their divisional opponents? Field Yates reveals the signal caller.
🗑️ This 2nd Year RB is looking crisp. "If you can dodge a trashcan, you can dodge a defender."
🎯 A rookie RB who should be on your radar. Buzz is building out of Washington.
⏭️ The next Deebo Samuel? Matt Harmon has an idea.
Our friends over at Fantasy Points have put together full positional tiers to help you in your best ball drafts. Graham Barfield has some interesting thoughts on the backend of the QB1 tiers, specifically on how he views Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson. Take it away, Graham...
💥 The Case For Rodgers
Aaron Rodgers (QB13; 104 overall by ADP) is a nice discount while it lasts. We’ve got a pretty decent sample of games that suggests Rodgers will be just fine without Davante Adams. Rodgers’ stats in 7 starts without Adams – 68.2% completion rate, 8.7 YPA, 7.9% TD rate, and 292.7 passing yards per game.
There are so many ways to get creative with Rodgers stacks and take advantage of what I think is an undervalued offense in general. Aaron Jones and Allen Lazard are two of my main targets in every draft. Robert Tonyan makes a ton of sense as a TD-chasing option at #2 TE. Romeo Doubs and Amari Rodgers make for great last round darts on Rodgers’ teams.
❄️ The Case Against Wilson
I don’t think it’s wise to outright fade any of the top-12 QBs by ADP, but Russell Wilson (QB8 ADP; 77 overall) is the one out of this tier I’m most underweight on. Are we sure new HC Nathaniel Hackett is going to unleash Wilson? Per Tom Brolley (via Broncos Coaching Carousel), “the Jaguars finished below the league average in pass rate in each of Leonard Fournette’s two seasons with Hackett calling plays, including in 2017 when Jacksonville owned the league’s highest run rate at 48%.” We have Wilson projected as QB10 with Tom Brady and Dak Prescott ahead of him and Derek Carr narrowly behind.
Click here to see Graham's full set of QB tiers. Fantasy Life readers get 10% off a Fantasy Points subscription with promo code LIFE.
Underdog's newest tournament is Superflex, which means one of the flex spots can include a second QB. Jonathan Fuller gives 4 tips on how he's attacking this unique tournament...
Tip 1: Although you don’t technically need a QB in your Superflex spot, you pretty much always want that to be the case because, on average, QBs score more points than other positions. Be prepared to take at least one QB in the first two rounds or risk being boxed out completely at the position.
Tip 2: We should remember what Professor Pete taught us last week: quality or quantity, not both. If you draft two early QBs you should be relying on those players to be in your lineup most weeks, so you should be set at the position as long as you can grab a third QB who is expected to be an every-week starter (think Mac Jones or Jared Goff types).
Tip 3: Pay attention to the other unique settings. The drafts are 20 rounds so don’t just log out after your 18th pick! Second, you only have to start 2 WRs instead of 3. This change slightly devalues the WR position. Based on the additional draft rounds and changes to the starting roster you will generally want to stick to the following positional allocations:
- 3-4 QBs
- 5-7 RBs
- 7-9 WRs
- 2-3 TEs
Tip 4: Take advantage of the short window for this tournament, which is on pace to fill by the end of the week day: (Editors note: This contest is now 89% filled and we can't keep up! Y'all are crazy.)
QBs like Baker Mayfield and Jimmy Garappolo are both going extremely late, even though I believe one or both of those guys will start Week 1. If/when they land on a team, they will offer a similar weekly ceiling to QBs going earlier like Carson Wentz or Davis Mills.
The season is fast approaching, which means it is time for us to get to know all of these NFL teams and who we should be drafting and fading after a busy offseason. In today's team preview, Geoff previews the San Francisco 49ers.
Since the end of the draft, the focus for the 49ers has been on what they will do with Jimmy Garoppolo. Last year the situation was understandably murky as the 49ers were simply not ready to commit to a player in Trey Lance who had played and started in one college football game in the past 20 months.
This off-season though the situation is somewhat different (although it’s also the same). The 49ers have made their intentions known about wanting to trade Garoppolo and to start Lance, but Garoppolo’s early March surgery to repair an injured shoulder has made that impossible, to this point. New reports do have Garoppolo on the verge of ramping up his activity levels and the veteran should be ready for training camp.
The entire saga has made Trey Lance’s ADP one of the biggest roller coaster rides in best ball drafts this summer. He’s currently sitting at an ADP of 88 on Underdog Fantasy after being sub-100 a month or so ago. It has also pushed the Deebo Samuel situation under the carpet, for now. This week the Samuel issue resurfaced as it was emphasized that he still hadn’t rescinded his trade request.
As of now, MGM has the 49ers slated for 9.5 wins, and they are second favorites at +190 there to win the NFC West (behind the Rams). Depending on how some of this player news breaks, you could see that number rise or fall in the coming months.
⚙️ Offseason changes
- Re-signed RB Jeff Wilson Jr. (brought back on one year deal).
- Signed WR Ray-Ray McCloud
- Signed QB Nate Sudfeld
- Lost WR Trent Sherfield
- Drafted RB Tyrion Davis-Price in the fifth round of the 2022 NFL Draft
✨ Team vibes
The 49ers are giving me minor to medium national nightmare vibes. Despite taking two RBs last year in the draft and still having JaMycal Hasty and Jeff Wilson Jr. on the roster, Kyle Shanahan added to his stable with third-round pick Tyrion Davis-Price. Davis-Price could end up taking 25 touches in Week 1 or never taking a snap this year and no one would be surprised. Elijah Mitchell owners need to be prepared for chaos.
On the wide receiver front, the 49ers added a couple of depth pieces in Ray-Ray McLeod and Danny Gray, but no one seems likely to take targets away from Deebo Samuel or Brandon Aiyuk. A year after one of the single best performances from a mid-round pick at WR in fantasy football history, Samuel now looks somewhat overvalued at his 18.5 ADP on Underdog Fantasy, given both his request for a trade (he could still be a Jet!) and the fact he seems intent on no longer being used as a running back (reminder he had eight rushing TDs last year). (Editors note: 😒)
The Samuel situation is creating uncertainty, but it’s also keeping valuations on Trey Lance, George Kittle, and Aiyuk somewhat capped (for now). In terms of value, there may be no player with better upside available past round seven of drafts than Lance. In 2019, his final full season as a college starter, he rushed for 14 TDs and 1,100 yards, and in the two games, he started for the 49ers last year Lance averaged 12 rush attempts. That’s Jalen Hurts type rushing volume, a quarterback who finished as QB9 last year and threw for just 3,144 yards and 16 passing TDs.
- QB Trey Lance (Underdog ADP 88.0, QB11)
- TE George Kittle (Underdog ADP 50.1, TE5)
- WR Brandon Aiyuk (Underdog ADP 82, WR41)
- WR Deebo Samuel (Underdog ADP 18.5, WR8)
- RB Elijah Mitchell (Underdog ADP 69.1, RB24)
It’s 2016. You just snatched David Johnson off waivers.
You don’t know it yet, but this is the best life will ever be.