2026 NFL Mock Draft: David Bailey To The Jets At 1.02

Last time I did a mock draft, my wife had just given birth to our girl, and I was the inevitable conqueror of life.

Now, I've been in the trenches of parenthood for a week, and I know better.

I'm cannon fodder. I serve at the whim of a fickle infant who at any moment can order me into battle with a blood- and bottled milk-curdling scream.

Critics of fantasy sports often belittle it as an escape from reality.

My friends, right now, an escape from reality is what I need more than anything else in the world, so I'm updating my 2026 NFL mock draft while my sweet little terror of a snookums holds my sister hostage in the other room.

(I'm joking, being a dad is great. I love it.)

Editor's Note: We're about 99% sure Freedman added in that last line just in case his daughter ever reads this piece 20 years from now.

In the words of Shakespeare's Henry V, "Once more unto the breach!"

For the 2025 draft, I was No. 1 in big board accuracy and No. 3 in mock accuracy. Since 2020, I'm the No. 1 mocker in the known universe.

For all of our draft coverage, check out our NFL Draft Guide. For my full Round 1 draft board, see the bottom of the article

Round 1 Pick-by-Pick 2026 NFL Mock Draft Analysis

No. 1: Raiders—QB Fernando Mendoza (Indiana)

Fernando Mendoza is the No. 1 player on my NFL Draft big board.

I don't think he's the most talented player in the class, but QB is the most important position in the league, and Mendoza is a worthy No. 1 pick.

I did a Fantasy Life Show episode earlier this offseason with Ian Hartitz on the 2026 QB class, and we spent a lot of time discussing Mendoza.

He's an incredibly clean prospect. In my opinion, he's multiple tiers above the other QBs in the class.

If he's the only QB who goes in Round 1 this year, I won't be surprised.

For fantasy, he's my No. 25 QB in our 2026 fantasy football rankings. For dynasty, I can see managers wanting to take him as the 1.01 in superflex rookie drafts … but it would be hard for me to prioritize him above RB Jeremiyah Love (Notre Dame).

Mendoza is a fine option as the No. 1 pick in this class. He's really the only option, given that the Raiders need a QB. But I don't think he would've gone ahead of QB Cam Ward last year or QBs Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye the year before that.

So I'm not sold on Mendoza as the 1.01 this year in superflex rookie drafts.

Check out my Fernando Mendoza scouting report.

No. 2: Jets—EDGE David Bailey (Texas Tech)

As I noted in the Saturday Fantasy Life newsletter, the four horsemen of the prospect apocalypse—Daniel Jeremiah, Peter Schrager, Todd McShay and Albert Breer—have all indicated that they're "hearing" David Bailey will be the choice at No. 2.

And the betting market has now shifted to Bailey as a co-favorite with EDGE/LB Arvell Reese (Ohio State).

Bailey vs. Reese has been one of the draft's key questions for months.

Both guys last year were first-team All-Americans. Both were winners at the combine.

Reese is just 20 years old and still raw as a hybrid.

Bailey was productive all through his four-year college career, and last season he had a nation-best 14.5 sacks along with 19.5 tackles for loss.

This is essentially project player vs. proven producer.

If I were an NFL decision maker, I'd like to think that I'd go with Reese. I believe he has the better chance to become a first-team All-Pro and help me win a Super Bowl.

But Bailey probably has the better chance to become a Pro Bowler and help me keep my job for an extra year.

So I understand why GM Darren Mougey and HC Aaron Glenn might prefer Bailey.

No. 3: Cardinals—EDGE/LB Arvell Reese (Ohio State)

The Cardinals need OL help, and OT Francis Mauigoa (Miami) is a fairly chalky pick here, but (to me) this feels too early for any of the OTs, who all have significant questions.

So, best player available it is at a position of need/value, and that's Reese, who the Cardinals are frankly lucky to get at No. 3.

No. 4: Titans—RB Jeremiyah Love (Notre Dame)

The Titans have RB Tony Pollard, but he's a prime cut candidate and not good enough anyway to keep the team from selecting one of the draft's best players.

Jeremiyah Love is just 20 years old. He won the 2025 Doak Walker Award as the top RB in college football, and over the past two seasons, he put up 3,014 yards and 40 TDs from scrimmage in 28 games.

With a three-down skill set, workhorse frame (6-0, 212 pounds), and home run speed (4.36, 40-yard dash), Love could be one of the NFL's top backs as a rookie.

I currently have him as my No. 8 RB for fantasy.

To access our 2026 fantasy football ranks, use the promo code FREEDMAN for 20% off the FantasyLife+ package.

Here are the RBs over the past decade to go in the top half of Round 1 of the NFL Draft and finish their rookie seasons at 21 years old.

2016: Ezekiel Elliott (No. 4)
2017: Christian McCaffrey (No. 8)
2018: Saquon Barkley (No. 2)
2023: Bijan Robinson (No. 8)
2023: Jahmyr Gibbs (No. 12)

I put Love firmly in the tier of these players as a prospect.

If he lands in a functional offense—unlike Ashton Jeanty this past year—he could draw Round 1 investment in fantasy drafts for season-long, best ball and Guillotine Leagues™.

No. 5: Giants—LB Sonny Styles (Ohio State)

Sonny Styles is intoxicating.

He's an off-ball LB, but he has the size to play EDGE (6-foot-5, 244 pounds), the skill to play DB (No. 1 S in the 2022 recruitment class) and the athleticism to play RB, WR or TE (4.46, 40-yard dash, 43.5-inch vertical jump, 11-2 broad jump).

Styles could dominate in a defense with EDGEs Brian Burns and Abdul Carter.

No. 6: Browns—WR Carnell Tate (Ohio State)

As I've mentioned on the Fantasy Life Show, when it comes to Carnell Tate, I'm a little skeptical.

He was never the No. 1 WR at Ohio State. His junior breakout was rather modest (51-875-9 receiving, 11 games).

He measured in at the combine smaller than listed in college (6-foot-2, 192 pounds vs. 6-foot-3, 195 pounds). And his speed (4.53, 40-yard dash, 1.61, 10-yard split) is subpar for his size.

Some of his efficiency stats place him in a historical prospect tier with some big-time studs: Justin Jefferson, A.J. Brown and Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

But his relative lack of size/speed dynamism is concerning. It's easy to look at other guys with NFL success and suboptimal 40 times and say that Tate is like them … but literally all of them (CeeDee Lamb, Tee Higgins, Keenan Allen, Cooper Kupp, Davante Adams, DeAndre Hopkins) were significantly bigger and more productive than Tate in college.

Also, I'd argue that all of them were more physical than Tate as collegiate pass catchers.

I still like Tate and expect him to have NFL success. He's the No. 1 WR in the 2026 Rookie Super Model.

But before the combine, I thought he had a chance to go as high as No. 4. Now, No. 6 feels like his absolute ceiling.

Still, the Browns need someone to push veteran Jerry Jeudy for the No. 1 WR role, and Tate could do that as a rookie,

No. 7: Commanders—EDGE Rueben Bain (Miami)

Rueben Bain started all three years in college, and last season he won the Ted Hendricks Award as the nation's top DE and earned consensus first-team All-American recognition.

His lack of height (6-foot-2) and arm length (30.88-inch arms) are issues, but his power as a rusher speaks for itself.

The Commanders need a DL upgrade.

No. 8: Saints—WR Jordyn Tyson (Arizona State)

Most mock drafters, NFL decision makers and fantasy investors probably like Makai Lemon (USC) better than Jordyn Tyson as the No. 2 WR in the class.

Based on general sentiment, Tyson is one of the NFL Draft fallers.

But he's still ahead of Lemon in the betting market, so I'm slotting him ahead of Lemon in this mock.

I love Tyson. He was the No. 1 WR at Colorado as an 18-year-old true freshman. As a redshirt sophomore at Arizona State, he looked like one of the best WRs in the country (75-1,101-10 receiving, 12 games).

And then last year he dominated (57-628-8 receiving, 2-4-1 rushing) for the first seven games before hamstring injuries sabotaged the rest of his campaign.

His medical history is significant: His freshman season ended with an ACL tear, which sidelined him for most of the following year. His redshirt sophomore campaign culminated in a broken collarbone, and then the second half of his final season was wiped out by soft-tissue issues.

But on the field, Tyson looks like the No. 1 pass catcher in the class.

He will pair well alongside No. 1 WR Chris Olave.

No. 9: Chiefs—OT Francis Mauigoa (Miami)

Francis Mauigoa turns 21 years old in June. He was the No. 1 OT in the 2023 recruitment class, he started all three years at RT in college and this past season, he was a consensus first-team All-American.

All that's great.

The problem: He might not have the arm length (33.25 inches) or the technique to stick at OT in the NFL.

Fortunately for the Chiefs, that doesn't matter: They can try Mauigoa at RT as the replacement for the departed Jawaan Taylor, and if he doesn't beat out Jaylon Moore for the position, then he can slide inside at LG, where he'd be an upgrade over Kingsley Suamataia.

Either way, the Chiefs will improve their OL, which feels like a priority given that QB Patrick Mahomes (knee) is returning from injury.

No. 10: Bengals—S Caleb Downs (Ohio State)

Based on talent, Caleb Downs could conceivably go in the top five.

He entered college as a five-star recruit and the No. 1 S in the 2023 class, and now he exits it as a two-time unanimous first-team All-American and the winner of the Jim Thorpe Award and Ronnie Lott Trophy.

But he plays S, a position that has been devalued in the NFL Draft over the past decade.

In 2018, future first-team All-Pros Minkah Fitzpatrick and Derwin James went outside of the top 10. In 2022, Kyle Hamilton went No. 14. And the next year, Brian Branch—as the first S off the board—went in Round 2.

Downs is elite, but he could realistically fall out of the top 10.

Here, I have him going No. 10 to the Bengals, who signed FS Bryan Cook in free agency but could use Downs either at SS or slot CB.

No. 11: Dolphins—CB Mansoor Delane (LSU)

Mansoor Delane was a unanimous first-team All-Pro last year, and the Dolphins need to upgrade their secondary for defensive HC Jeff Hafley in his first season with the team.

No. 12: Cowboys—CB Jermod McCoy (Tennessee)

Jermod McCoy missed all of 2025 to injury, but he turns 21 in August, he had an excellent 40-yard dash at his pro day (4.38 seconds), and he was a ballhawk as a sophomore (4 INTs, 9 passes defended).

The Cowboys could use another CB after releasing former first-team All-Pro Trevon Diggs in December.

No. 13: Rams—WR Makai Lemon (USC)

Makai Lemon was a unanimous first-team All-American last year and the 2025 Fred Biletnikoff Award winner as the nation's best pass catcher (79-1,156-11 receiving, 9-4-2 rushing, 12 games).

With Lemon, offensive HC Sean McVay gets another weapon for MVP QB Matthew Stafford.

Pick via Falcons.

No. 14: Ravens—OT Spencer Fano (Utah)

Fano has experience at both OT spots, and last year he was a unanimous first-team All-American and the Outland Trophy winner as the best lineman in college football.

With his arm length (32.12 inches), Fano ultimately might need to kick inside as a C/G convert (as Duke LT Graham Barton did in 2024, when the Bucs drafted him in Round 1).

That could work for the Ravens, who lost three-time Pro Bowl C Tyler Linderbaum in free agency this offseason and need additional OL help to protect QB Lamar Jackson.

No. 15: Buccaneers—EDGE Keldric Faulk (Auburn)

Keldric Faulk had only 10 sacks and 19.5 tackles for loss in three college seasons, but he has great size (6-foot-6, 276 pounds), pedigree (five stars as a recruit) and age (he turns 21 in September).

The Bucs need a replacement for free agent EDGE Haason Reddick.

No. 16: Jets—WR Omar Cooper (Indiana)

QB Ty Simpson (Alabama) could be in play for the Jets at No. 16 … but I assume that they're likely to take a QB next year and attempt to build a better roster for that player now.

Hence, Omar Cooper.

Although Cooper never had a big breakout at Indiana (69-937-13 receiving, 3-74-1 rushing in 16 games last year), he was the co-No. 1 WR in his final season for the championship-winning Hoosiers, and his inside/outside versatility will allow him to pair well with No. 1 WR Garrett Wilson.

Pick via Colts.

No. 17: Lions—OT Kadyn Proctor (Alabama)

Most mocks and big boards have Monroe Freeling (Georgia) ahead of Kadyn Proctor, and if I were making this pick for another team in this draft range, I'd likely go with Freeling instead of Proctor—but with this specific selection, I'm intentionally trying to match a player with a team that I believe will significantly value his attributes.

In Proctor, the Lions find a potential franchise blindside protector to replace the now-released longtime LT Taylor Decker.

Still just 20 years old, Proctor was the No. 1 OT in the 2023 recruitment class, and then at Alabama, he started at LT for all three of his college seasons, the final of which resulted in consensus first-team All-American recognition.

And perhaps most importantly for the Lions, he plays with attitude.

Proctor's weight will always need to be managed (352 pounds at the combine), but he has the height (6-foot-7) to carry his sizable mass, and in a worst-case scenario, the Lions can bump him to G if he struggles with speed on the perimeter.

Or if the Lions want to move RT Penei Sewell to LT, then they could put Proctor in Sewell's vacated spot.

Either way, Proctor will feature in the Week 1 OL.

No. 18: Vikings—S Dillon Thieneman (Oregon)

After his great combine …

Size: 6-foot, 201 pounds
Speed: 4.35, 40-yard dash
Explosion: 41-inch vertical jump, 10-5 broad jump

… I now have Dillon Thieneman as the No. 2 S in this class.

He can play FS, SS and slot CB, and that versatility will make him an attractive matchup chess piece for DC Brian Flores.

No. 19: Panthers—TE Kenyon Sadiq (Oregon)

The Panthers fortified many of their weaknesses in free agency, but they could still use an upgrade at TE.

Enter Kenyon Sadiq, who is undersized (6-foot-3, 241 pounds) but fast (4.39, 40-yard dash, 1.54, 10-yard split) and explosive (43.5-inch vertical jump, 11-1 broad jump).

No. 20: Cowboys—EDGE Akheem Mesidor (Miami)

Akheem Mesidor turns 25 years old in April, so he might already be an almost finished product, but that could still work for the Cowboys, who need an immediate DL contributor.

Mesidor was productive in his first two years of college at West Virginia (9.5 sacks), and then last season he broke out with 12.5 sacks and 17.5 tackles for loss.

Pick via Packers.

No. 21: Steelers—G Olaivavega Ioane (Penn State)

The Steelers might consider QB Ty Simpson (Alabama) here, but I assume that they're likely to re-sign QB Aaron Rodgers, in which event they could look to add another offensive player.

In that scenario, pass catcher is an option, although the Steelers could look elsewhere given that they traded for WR Michael Pittman earlier this offseason.

So in this iteration, I'll go with Olaivavega Ioane, who might be the best overall OL in this class.

Because he's a G-only prospect, he'll likely fall outside the top 10, but this feels like the appropriate range for him, and he'd be a natural replacement for departed G Isaac Seumalo.

No. 22: Chargers—DT Peter Woods (Clemson)

Peter Woods never lived up to his potential in college (5 sacks, 14.5 tackles for loss), but he's still only 21 years old and was the No. 1 DT in the 2023 recruitment class.

At some point, a team will bet on his traits. This feels like the right range in Round 1, and the Chargers have needed help on their interior DL for years.

No. 23: Eagles—OT Monroe Freeling (Georgia)

I was tempted to give a WR to the Eagles. That would've allowed me to get six WRs in Round 1, which has been a default for me for months.

But the team just traded for WR Dontayvion Wicks and then gave him a one-year, $12.5-million extension, which in my mind makes them less likely to take a WR here.

So I'm sticking with OL: The Eagles like to invest in the trenches, and Monroe Freeling could probably play either OT spot in the NFL.

He has limited experience (18 games at LT), but Freeling also has outstanding size (6-foot-7, 315 pounds), arm length (34.75 inches) and athleticism (4.93, 40-yard dash).

No. 24: Browns—OT Caleb Lomu (Utah)

In Caleb Lomu, the Browns find a potential long-time blindside bookend.

Lomu has good size (6-foot-6, 313 pounds) and athleticism (4.99, 40-yard dash) and two years of starting experience at LT.

Pick via Jaguars.

No. 25: Bears—S Emmanuel McNeil-Warren (Toledo)

I still think DL is a strong option for the Bears, but they lost their entire S cohort this offseason in Kevin Byard, Jaquan Brisker and C.J. Gardner-Johnson.

Even with the additions of Coby Bryant and Cam Lewis, the Bears could use one more player at the position, and McNeil-Warren has the size (6-foot-4, 201 lbs.) to enforce in the box and challenge TEs.

No. 26: Bills—EDGE T.J. Parker (Clemson)

I've previously had the Bills drafting a WR in Round 1, but given that they traded their Round 2 pick for WR DJ Moore, I'm pivoting here to defense.

The Bills have (theoretically) replaced EDGE Joey Bosa with veteran Bradley Chubb via free agency, but they still need to cover the snaps vacated by EDGE A.J. Epenesa, who just recently signed with the Browns.

T.J. Parker was a three-year starter who put up 21.5 sacks and 41.5 tackles for loss for his career.

No. 27: 49ers—OT Blake Miller (Clemson)

Blake Miller was a four-year starter in college, and then at the combine he displayed NFL-level size (6-foot-7, 317 lbs.) and athleticism (5.04, 40-yard dash).

He could start right away at RT before maybe shifting to the other side in a couple of years when longtime LT Trent Williams retires.

No. 28: Texans—DT Kayden McDonald (Ohio State)

Kayden McDonald is a pure NT who attracts double teams with his size (6-foot-2, 326 pounds), and yet he still managed last year to make an impact against the run (9 tackles for loss) and pass (3 sacks).

The Texans could use a running mate alongside DT Sheldon Rankins.

No. 29: Chiefs—CB Colton Hood (Tennessee)

After trading away No. 1 CB Trent McDuffie to get this pick, the Chiefs use it to draft his successor.

Hood has the height (6-foot) and speed (4.44, 40-yard dash) to stick with most NFL WRs.

Pick via Rams.

No. 30: Dolphins—WR Kevin "KC" Concepcion (Texas A&M)

The Broncos traded away their Round 1 pick to the Dolphins for WR Jaylen Waddle. Here, the Dolphins use that pick to select their new No. 1 receiver.

KC Concepcion broke out as a true freshman as the featured playmaker at NC State (71-839-10 receiving), and then last season he was the No. 1 WR for the Aggies (61-919-9) while earning first-team All-American honors as a punt returner (25-456-2). On top of that, he steadily and effectively chipped in as a runner throughout his career (70-431-3).

Pick via Broncos.

No. 31: Patriots—OT Max Iheanachor (Arizona State)

For a while, I've been mocking an EDGE to the Patriots. They could use a replacement for K'Lavon Chaisson.

But Max Iheanachor's draft hype has steadily increased over the past couple of months, and he could serve as the swing tackle behind OTs Will Campbell and Morgan Moses this year before moving into the starting lineup.

Blessed with great traits (6-foot-6, 321 lbs., 4.91-second 40-yard dash), Iheanachor is a project who didn't play football until he enrolled at junior college in 2021. A redshirt season makes sense for him.

No. 32: Seahawks—EDGE Cashius Howell (Texas A&M)

The Seahawks lost EDGE Boye Mafe in free agency, and Cashius Howell—despite his subpar length (30.25-inch arms)—was a unanimous first-team All-American last year with 11.5 sacks and 14.0 tackles for loss.

2026 Mock Draft Methodology

Here's an outline of my mock process.

Identify the 32 players most likely to go in Round 1.
Order players correctly within their position groups.
Match teams with positions of need.
Attempt to mock players within their likely draft ranges.

I think of this process as if it's a puzzle.

First, I settle on the individual pieces to assemble, and then I try to put them together to create a reasonable-looking picture. I always know the final product will be more Picasso than Realism: Jagged, distorted and just maybe a little bit genius.

No trades: I don't like stacking randomness on top of chaos. A tradeless mock isn't realistic, but it might be more accurate. Plus, I think for the past half-decade people have tended to overestimate the number of trades that will actually happen in Round 1.

Borderline Prospects Excluded From Round 1

Here are the eight players on the Round 1 borderline whom I considered including in the mock but ultimately chose to exclude.

QB: Ty Simpson (Alabama)
WR: Denzel Boston (Washington)
EDGE: Zion Young (Missouri), Malachi Lawrence (UCF)
DT: Caleb Banks (Florida)
LB: CJ Allen (Georgia)
CB: Avieon Terrell (Clemson), Chris Johnson (San Diego State)

Round 1 Draft Board of 2026 NFL Mock Draft

Pick	Team	Player	School	Position
1	LV	Fernando Mendoza	Indiana	QB
2	NYJ	David Bailey	Texas Tech	EDGE
3	ARI	Arvell Reese	Ohio State	EDGE
4	TEN	Jeremiyah Love	Notre Dame	RB
5	NYG	Sonny Styles	Ohio State	LB
6	CLE	Carnell Tate	Ohio State	WR
7	WAS	Rueben Bain	Miami	EDGE
8	NO	Jordyn Tyson	Arizona State	WR
9	KC	Francis Mauigoa	Miami	OT
10	CIN	Caleb Downs	Ohio State	S
11	MIA	Mansoor Delane	LSU	CB
12	DAL	Jermod McCoy	Tennessee	CB
13	LAR	Makai Lemon	USC	WR
14	BAL	Spencer Fano	Utah	OT
15	TB	Keldric Faulk	Auburn	EDGE
16	NYJ	Omar Cooper	Indiana	WR
17	DET	Kadyn Proctor	Alabama	OT
18	MIN	Dillon Thieneman	Oregon	S
19	CAR	Kenyon Sadiq	Oregon	TE
20	DAL	Akheem Mesidor	Miami	EDGE
21	PIT	Olaivavega Ioane	Penn State	G
22	LAC	Peter Woods	Clemson	DT
23	PHI	Monroe Freeling	Georgia	OT
24	CLE	Caleb Lomu	Utah	OT
25	CHI	Emmanuel McNeil-Warren	Toledo	S
26	BUF	T.J. Parker	Clemson	EDGE
27	SF	Blake Miller	Clemson	OT
28	HOU	Kayden McDonald	Ohio State	DT
29	KC	Colton Hood	Tennessee	CB
30	MIA	Denzel Boston	Washington	WR
31	NE	Max Iheanachor	Arizona State	OT
32	SEA	Cashius Howell	Texas A&M	EDGE