NFL Survivor Picks For Week 5: Houston Targets the Struggling Titans

Welcome to Week 5 in your Survivor Pool. We have a strategy for which teams to pick against, as they have looked terrible this season.

These three games this week will help you come back for another week.

Week 5 NFL Survivor Picks

Houston Texans (at Tennessee Titans)

The Texans have had a rough start to the season and have regressed noticeably from last year.

In 2025, Houston’s defense led the league in points allowed per game (17.4), EPA allowed per play (-0.18) and six defensive players made the Pro Bowl. The drop-off has been noticeable: The unit ranks 27th in points allowed per game (27.3) and 22nd in EPA allowed per play (-0.01). What’s shocking is that the defense has no significant changes, with nine returning starters and the same defensive coordinator.

The offense has also struggled at times, scoring just 23 points in Weeks 2 and 3. However, Houston has taken advantage of facing two weak defenses, scoring 30+ points against the Bills, who rank 25th in the NFL in points allowed per game (26.8), and Cowboys, who rank 28th (28.0).

This week could be a challenge against Tennessee, which ranks ninth in the league in points allowed per game (20.8). However, the Titans’ offense has been awful, averaging the second-fewest points in the NFL (13.8).

Houston frequently drops into zone coverage, with the fourth-highest rate (84.3%). That could work against Cam Ward, who ranks 22nd in the league in EPA per dropback against zone coverage (-0.05).

Cincinnati Bengals (at Miami Dolphins)

The question for the Bengals is whether Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins will play this week. Chase is in concussion protocol, and Higgins is day-to-day with an adductor injury. With Cincinnati on a bye in Week 6, do not be surprised if both miss this game.

If the Bengals were playing maybe 28 other teams this week, they should be avoided in a survivor pool without Chase and Higgins; the Dolphins aren’t among those teams.

Miami’s offense has been painful to watch. They’ve scored just 46 points this season, while we’ve seen teams score more than that in a single game. In Week 4 against the Vikings, they didn't give up a touchdown but still lost, as Minnesota kicked five field goals to win 15-10.

The Dolphins invested in Malik Willis to be their quarterback, and it’s been a failure. He ranks 27th in success rate (37.0%) and 23rd in the league in EPA per dropback (-0.11). Their only shred of talent on offense was De’Von Achane, who’s done for the year with a torn ACL.

Cincinnati’s defense improved significantly from last year, dropping from 25.3 points allowed per game (27th) to 18.3 (7th).

Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. Philadelphia Eagles)

This is a strike-while-the-iron-is-hot play. The Jaguars look like a Super Bowl contender; they're efficient on both sides of the ball, and Trevor Lawrence is starting to look like a franchise quarterback.

Now they face the Eagles, who are heading in the wrong direction. They have dropped two straight games. First, the Bears 27-7, who played a quarterback who hadn’t started since 2023. Then the Rams, where Philadelphia blew a 20-10 halftime lead and were outscored 14-0 in the second half. The Eagles have been shut out in the second half in the last two games and have just 20 points in the second half this season.

Now they enter this game with a depleted offense. Running back Saquon Barkley is week-to-week with a hamstring injury, and Tank Bigsby was placed on IR with an abductor injury. Primary wide receiver DeVonta Smith is questionable after missing last week with an injury, right guard Lane Johnson has announced his retirement, and center Cam Jurgens was traded to the Ravens.

That’s trouble against a Jaguars defense that’s ranked 12th in the league in quarterback pressures (46).

This is technically a neutral-site matchup, but the Jaguars play in London every season, so they are accustomed to playing across the pond, unlike the Eagles.