2023 Team Preview: Carolina Panthers
Free agency and the NFL Draft have come and gone. It’s time to fully embrace the 2023 offseason by breaking down the fantasy football aspirations of each and every team before draft season truly gets underway.
What follows is a fantasy-focused breakdown of the Carolina Panthers, looking at key questions like:
- Is there a path to fantasy greatness for No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young even as a rookie?
- Will the Panthers hand their highly-priced RB signing, Miles Sanders, a three-down role?
- Are any of Carolina's WRs or TEs worth reaching for in fantasy drafts with a rookie QB under center?
Every fantasy-relevant player from the Panthers will be covered in the following paragraphs. Make sure to check out the Fantasy Life Team Preview Landing Page through the end of June for more all-encompassing fantasy football coverage.
Notable Offseason Moves
From the front office to the coaching staff to the roster, every NFL team will be different in 2023 compared to their respective 2022 version.
The Matt Rhule “era” ended just five weeks into 2022. This led the organization to start over from scratch in the form of former Colts head coach Frank Reich, who is joined by offensive coordinator Thomas Brown and defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero.
Perhaps Brown will help install some of the concepts he learned from Sean McVay during his time as the Rams' RBs and TEs coach, but Reich has already gone on record stating that he’ll begin the season as the offensive play-caller.
The constant QB turnover in Indianapolis during Reich's tenure resulted in some volatility in pass rate over expected (PROE) and situation neutral pace:
- 2022: -3.7% PROE (No. 21); 30.9 seconds per play (No. 14)
- 2021: -4.3% (No. 24); 33.54 (No. 32)
- 2020: -4.1% (No. 26); 30.55 (No. 18)
- 2019: -5.4% (No. 28); 31.79 (No. 25)
- 2018: +3.4% (No. 6); 28.53 (No. 2)
It’d make sense if Reich’s one season with elite QB performance – 2018 with Andrew Luck under center – is closest to his true preference. Still, it’s tough to be overly confident with how Reich’s offense will look in 2023, especially with a rookie QB under center.
Additionally, the Panthers have made plenty of changes to their roster this offseason. The following QBs, RBs, WRs and TEs have either joined or left Carolina in some way, shape or form in free agency:
- QB: Every QB to start a game for the 2022 Panthers is gone, as Sam Darnold (49ers) and P.J. Walker (Bears) both signed elsewhere in free agency. The team brought in the red
rocketrifle Andy Dalton on a two-year, $10 million contract to help get the 2023 NFL Draft’s No. 1 overall pick ready to go. - RB: Surprisingly productive early-down grinder D’Onta Foreman took his talents to Chicago in free agency, leading to the front office giving former Eagles RB Miles Sanders a surprisingly steep four-year, $25.4 million deal that includes $13 million guaranteed.
- WR: The Panthers traded longtime No. 1 WR D.J. Moore to the Bears as part of their package for the No. 1 overall pick. Backup WRs Rashard Higgins and Andre Roberts remain free agents. Credit to the front office for at least spending some money in order to bring in veterans Adam Thielen (three years, $25 million) and D.J. Chark (one year, $5 million), although this still objectively looks like a bottom-five WR room in the league.
- TE: Carolina signed Hayden Hurst to a pretty big three-year, $21.75 million deal that includes $13 million in guaranteed money to presumably work as the locked-in starter.
On top of their free agent additions, Carolina used both of their top-40 selections in the NFL Draft to bring in immediate difference-makers on the offense.
Of course, Alabama QB Bryce Young (1.1) has deservedly gotten most of the press, but don’t sleep on Ole Miss WR Jonathan Mingo (2.39) potentially making an early impact. Historically, first and second-round WRs have vastly outperformed WRs drafted in Round 3 or later both as rookies and throughout their careers.
QBs
- Bryce Young (Ian’s QB24)
- Andy Dalton (QB61)
The Fantasy Life crew had the following strengths to say about Young in our Dynasty Rookie Profile:
Best pure passer in the class
Pro Football Focus (PFF) gave Young a 93.0 passer grade, which places him at the top of the rankings among 169 FBS QBs with at least 250 dropbacks over the last two seasons. Pretty, pretty, pretty good.
Doesn’t just survive: The man thrives under pressure
Among the 146 QBs who registered at least 100 dropbacks under pressure, Young ranked sixth in passing grade on his 370 qualified dropbacks. He delivered an eye-popping 26 TDs and only six INTs under duress, and his 8.4 YPA was sterling in comparison to the 6.1 YPA average of his peers.
Out of structure mixtape is elite
While some will want to dismiss Young in this department due to his smaller stature and lack of rushing production when scrambling, he is the best college passer during scramble drills with 11 TD passes and only three INTs over the past two years.
You can probably guess the primary weakness: size. Alabama listed Young at 194 lbs., and the rookie has addressed this concern himself and confirmed that he can’t grow. Too bad!
However, the more impactful issue in fantasy land might just be his lack of demonstrated rushing upside. Young barely had more rushing yards (162) than carries (139), which is still pretty wild even after again realizing that college sacks count against rushing production.
Of course, Young’s alleged 4.52-second 40-yard dash paints a far different picture of what he might be capable of at the next level. The 2021 Heisman Trophy winner uses his legs to buy time and create throwing lanes more so than to take off and scramble but did occasionally show off some big-play ability with his legs when the opportunity presented itself.
Still, six of seven top-12 fantasy rookie QBs over the last decade averaged at least 25 rushing yards per game in college:
- Cam Newton: 79 collegiate rushing yards per game
- Robert Griffin III: 55
- Dak Prescott: 52
- Kyler Murray: 51
- Russell Wilson: 28
- Andrew Luck: 25
- Justin Herbert: 13
Young will need to be ultra-efficient through the air to achieve high-end success in fantasy land this season. He profiles as a low-end QB2 who could struggle to put up big-time numbers early in his career while stuck on what sure looks like one of the league’s most talent-barren offenses.
The only times I’ve drafted Young this offseason have been for late-round QB builds in best ball, as it's convenient that Young's stacking partners' ADPs are also so cheap.
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RBs
- Miles Sanders (Ian’s RB22)
- Chuba Hubbard (RB57)
- Raheem Blackshear (RB105)
The former Eagles RB has averaged five yards per carry for his career while demonstrating true flashes of big-play ability. In fact, Sanders posted a 15% 10-plus yard attempt rate in 2021 and followed that up with 13% in 2022, which ranked ninth-best among RBs.
And yet, it’s hard to not look at that high-end efficiency with just a bit of skepticism. Dual-threat QB Jalen Hurts regularly helped open up wider rushing lanes thanks to his read option threat, and it certainly helped that Sanders was running behind PFF’s top-ranked offensive line last season.
PFF Elusive Rating, which measures the success and impact of a runner with the ball independently of the blocking, does a good job of illustrating Sanders’ game. He’s more than capable of getting what’s blocked and can get from zero to 60 in a hurry, but there isn’t much consistent wiggle or high-end ability to pick up yards after contact here. Here are Sanders's elusive ratings:
- 2022: 55.1 (No. 22 among 42 qualifying RBs)
- 2021: 51.9 (No. 24)
- 2020: 59.9 (No. 16)
- 2019: 47.9 (No. 31)
Style points don’t equate to extra fantasy points, so Sanders is free to pick up yards and TDs in whatever manner he sees fit. Still, a quick highlight recap of last season shows all sorts of examples of the 26-year-old back mightily benefiting from one gaping hole after another.
Perhaps the Panthers’ reigning 21st-ranked offensive line in PFF run blocking grade can take their game to another level in 2023, but they largely declined to add any sort of real reinforcements to the group either through the draft or free agency.
Good fantasy RBs are more prevalent in bad real-life offenses than any position other than QB, so Sanders doesn’t need to be overly efficient with his opportunities to be productive in fantasy as long as he gets the heavy majority of touches in this backfield.
Of course, projecting whether or not Sanders will get a true three-down role depends on which offseason quote you want to use.
Back in February, Panthers RBs coach Duce Staley said that he believes in using three RBs and noted that playing at the RB position is like being “in a car wreck". Then in April, Sanders said that reuniting with Staley was the main reason he signed with the Panthers and that “they know I’m a three-down back".
Sanders did indeed see a far bigger pass-down role when Staley was the Eagles' RBs coach in 2019 and 2020 (115 targets) compared to 2021 and 2022 (60), although that could also be more of a result of playing alongside a dual-threat QB. It’s also fair to wonder if Sanders regressed as a pass-catcher since then, as he joined Derrick Henry as the two worst-rated backs in PFF receiving grade last year.
Ultimately, my bigger concern is the reality that Sanders never averaged even 14 carries per game in the 2019 and 2020 seasons under Staley. Those offenses made sure to also keep guys like Jordan Howard and Boston Scott heavily involved, so Hubbard and Blackshear could still eat into Sanders's rushing workload in 2023 even if they're not big names.
The Panthers obviously paid Sanders plenty of money for a reason, but the history of RBs changing teams in free agency has been rather brutal in recent years.
Sanders’s path to success will necessitate seizing a three-down role or at least something close to it. While that's possible, his floor could be low as an early-down grinder for what sure looks like one of the NFL’s bottom-10 offenses.
I’m out on Sanders at his current RB17 ADP, as guys like Cam Akers (RB24), Rachaad White (RB25), and James Conner (RB27) offer similar hopes for three-down roles in bad offenses and are going multiple rounds later over at Underdog Fantasy. There are also plenty of upside WR3 options available in this ADP range, so don’t go out of your way to land anyone on this likely-to-be sad Panthers offense.
If you disagree, you can draft Sanders or grab Hubbard late on Underdog Fantasy, where you can also get a 100% deposit match of up to $100 when you sign up below!
WRs
- Jonathan Mingo (Ian’s WR55)
- Adam Thielen (WR56)
- D.J. Chark (WR66)
- Terrace Marshall (WR91)
- Laviska Shenault (WR108)
The Panthers' WR room has all sorts of uncertainty at the moment with Thielen the only solidified starter (probably?) as of now thanks to his rather robust contract. As a result, fantasy GMs don't really know where to start here, which in turn has led to the Panthers offering one of fantasy’s cheapest stacking offenses heading into 2023.
First, a summary from Dane Brugler’s “The Beast” breakdown on Mingo:
“A four-year starter at Ole Miss, Mingo lined up across the formation in head coach Lane Kiffin’s offense with 61.3 percent of his targets coming between the numbers (slants, in-breakers etc.). He joined Jalin Hyatt as the only two SEC receivers with 50-plus catches and 16.5-plus yards per reception in 2022 (he broke Elijah Moore’s single-game receiving record with a 247-yard performance vs. Vanderbilt).
A smooth, physical presence with strong hands, Mingo is a balanced athlete in his releases, routes and at the catch point. He is a long-strider who needs a beat to build up his speed and must fine-tune areas of his game, including his efficiency at the top of the stem.
Overall, Mingo has only average deception and separation quickness, but with his size, pacing and competitive ball skills, he has the body control and upside that has the attention of NFL teams. He has starting potential in the right situation.”
One of four WRs I highlighted in my pre-draft analysis on which pass-catchers boasted five-tool skill-sets, Mingo has the size and speed of a true alpha on the outside. The biggest question mark is whether he can improve as a route-runner as a rookie to demand consistent target share.
Oct 30, 2022; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Adam Thielen (19) catches a pass against the Arizona Cardinals in the second quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports
And then there’s Thielen, who will be 33 years old in August. The long-time Vikings WR certainly has produced impressively in recent seasons, as only Davante Adams (43), Mike Evans (33), Travis Kelce (32), and Tyreek Hill (31) have more receiving TDs than Thielen (30) since 2020.
The money Carolina gave Thielen certainly looks good and is on par with the sort of historical big-money deals that landed new WRs solid year-one roles. Just realize that the Panthers' offense is viewed as a bottom-five unit entering 2023, and it's awfully rare for WRs to post big-time fantasy production once their age starts with the number “three”.
Similar concerns for Chark are there, although he certainly flashed a bit more upside with the Lions in 2022.
At 6'3 and 199 lbs. with 4.34 speed, Chark possesses all the requisite physical tools to cause problems for cornerbacks of all shapes and sizes. Here’s to hoping that the 26-year-old WR will have some better injury luck this coming year after having played in just 15 games total over the last two seasons.
As for Marshall and Shenault, Marshall flashed on occasion in 2022, and Shenault surprisingly trailed only Tyreek Hill in yards per route run last season if you move the minimum receptions threshold low enough.
Ultimately, all of Carolina's WRs are cheap enough to warrant late-round dart throws, although this is the point in drafts where I’d much rather finalize my RB and TE positions. Mingo gets the nod thanks to his draft capital, but it's tough to project how targets will be allocated on a Panthers offense that ranks top-seven in available air yards and targets.
TEs
- Hayden Hurst (Ian’s TE35)
- Tommy Tremble (TE53)
- Ian Thomas (TE65)
Hurst ranked 29th in yards per route run (1.1) and 24th in targets per route run (17.8%) among 47 qualifying TEs during his lone season in Cincinnati last year. Those are good but not exactly game-changing numbers, as Hurst finished as the TE19 in PPR points per game despite having a full-time role with Joe Burrow under center in 2022.
While Hurst's deal is the first under new head coach Frank Reich, current general manager Scott Fitterer has been running the show since January 2021 and is responsible for having extended Thomas to a three-year, $16.95 million deal and for having drafted Tremble.
It'd make sense if Hurst is prioritized in the passing game thanks to his big-money contract and superior receiving ability, but both the Panthers and Colts (with Reich) have regularly utilized two and even three-TE committees over the years.
The grass is seldom greener on the other side for TEs who switch teams in free agency, and Hurst has never been anything more than a low-end TE1, at best, in fantasy land.
Even with his large contract, Hurst isn't expected to have the sort of featured, volume-heavy role that would help him make up for potential efficiency problems from a rookie QB. He's a late-round dart throw who doesn't need to be prioritized unless to stack with Young or to bring back as a Week 17 stack with some Jaguars players.
2023 Win Total: 7.5
- -125 juice on the over
The NFC South was brutal last year, as the 8-9 Buccaneers barely won the division over the Panthers, Saints, and Falcons, all of whom went 7-10 last season.
There are certainly some dogs on the defensive side of the ball for Carolina, but even then, we’re talking about a defense that ranked just 19th in points allowed in 2022. The offense looks a little better on paper – they can’t be much worse than they were last year – yet this influx of offensive talent revolves around a rookie QB and Sanders, Thielen, Chark, and Hurst getting a combined $75 million.
While those aforementioned deals are a short-term positive so that Young isn’t simply throwing the football to undrafted free agents, this still profiles as anyone’s idea of a bottom-five offense in football.
I’m leaning towards under 7.5 wins for a Panthers team that sure looks to be at least a year away from being a year away.
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