Fantasy Football Rankings & Tiers. Conference Championship Round
It is time to make those tough fantasy football lineup decisions for Conference Championship Weekend.
Below you’ll find positional rankings, player analysis, betting totals, and implied points for every game on the slate.
Find all of our positional rankings here.
Fantasy Football Rankings & Tiers – Conference Championship
Last updated: 5:30 pm, Wednesday, January 25th. Please refer to our Rankings page for updates!
Quarterback
| Tier | Pos Rank | Player | Opp | Game Total | Spread | Team Total | PPG |
| 1 | QB1 | Jalen Hurts | vs SF | 46.0 | -2.5 | 24.25 | 26.8 |
| 1 | QB2 | Joe Burrow | at KC | 48.0 | -1.5 | 24.75 | 22.3 |
| 2 | QB3 | Patrick Mahomes II | vs CIN | 48.0 | 1.5 | 23.25 | 25.9 |
| 3 | QB4 | Brock Purdy | at PHI | 46.0 | 2.5 | 21.75 | 18.8 |
QB Notes & Movers:
- Tier 1 – Jalen Hurts faces a much tougher matchup than last weekend, but the 49ers can be beaten through the air. Their heavy zone looks could help reduce scrambles, but Hurts leads the NFL in designed rush attempts (23%), so he will still get his opportunities on the ground. Hurts ranks ahead of industry consensus as the No. 1 QB on the slate.
- Tier 2 – Patrick Mahomes is battling a high-ankle sprain that could limit his mobility, which ties to his ability to buy time and create big plays. Mahomes slips to the QB3 on a four-QB slate.
Running Back
| Tier | Pos Rank | Player | Team | Pos | Opp | Opp Strip | Game Total | Spread | Team Total | PPG |
| 1 | RB1 | Christian McCaffrey | SF | RB | at PHI | PHI | 46.0 | 2.5 | 21.75 | 21.2 |
| 2 | RB2 | Joe Mixon | CIN | RB | at KC | KC | 48.0 | -1.5 | 24.75 | 15.9 |
| 3 | RB3 | Jerick McKinnon | KC | RB | vs CIN | CIN | 48.0 | 1.5 | 23.25 | 11.7 |
| 3 | RB4 | Miles Sanders | PHI | RB | vs SF | SF | 46.0 | -2.5 | 24.25 | 13.3 |
| 3 | RB5 | Isiah Pacheco | KC | RB | vs CIN | CIN | 48.0 | 1.5 | 23.25 | 7.7 |
| 4 | RB6 | Elijah Mitchell | SF | RB | at PHI | PHI | 46.0 | 2.5 | 21.75 | 6.5 |
| 5 | RB7 | Samaje Perine | CIN | RB | at KC | KC | 48.0 | -1.5 | 24.75 | 9.3 |
| 5 | RB8 | Kenneth Gainwell | PHI | RB | vs SF | SF | 46.0 | -2.5 | 24.25 | 5.2 |
| 5 | RB9 | Clyde Edwards-Helaire | SF | RB | vs CIN | CIN | 46.0 | 2.5 | 21.75 | 9.8 |
| 5 | RB10 | Boston Scott | PHI | RB | vs SF | SF | 46.0 | -2.5 | 24.25 | 2.5 |
| 6 | RB11 | Kyle Juszczyk | SF | RB | at PHI | PHI | 46.0 | 2.5 | 21.75 | 4.1 |
| 6 | RB12 | Jordan Mason | SF | RB | at PHI | PHI | 46.0 | 2.5 | 21.75 | 2.6 |
Tier 3 – Jerrick McKinnon
McKinnon didn’t come through like Isiah Pacheco in the boxscore for the Divisional Round, but his underlying utilization told a different story. In a big-time game, McKinnon surged to his highest snap share of the season at 65% and registered his second-highest attempt share (39%).
The Bengals are a zone-first team (66%), and Cover 3 is their primary coverage (29%), which bodes well for McKinnon with his 21% TPRR. Against Cincinnati’s top-four coverage looks, McKinnon has a 20% TPRR.
With Patrick Mahomes hobbled by a high-ankle sprain, there is a chance McKinnon leads this team in opportunities. A 15-touch game isn’t out of the question.
McKinnon is the No. 3 RB on the slate for Championship Weekend.
Tier 2 – Miles Sanders
A blowup performance was on the table for Sanders in the Divisional Round, with the Eagles romping over the Giants with 268 yards and three TDs on the ground. However, the three-way RB committee, plus the presence of Jalen Hurts, limited Sanders to 90 yards on 17 attempts. Sanders was the lead RB option, but Kenneth Gainwell closed out the game with things well in hand.
We should see a competitive matchup this weekend, which could keep Sanders on the field more. The blowout wins and large trailing scripts have been the challenge for Sanders. In games where the Eagles haven’t led or trailed by four-plus points on over 60% of plays, Sanders averages 18 carries.
Of course, the matchup is the worst against the No. 1 run defense. San Francisco allows only 22.9 rushing attempts and 79 yards per game in non-overtime play.
Sanders is the No. 4 RB this weekend and could be a leverage play in DFS if the field fades him due to the terrible matchup.
Additional RB Notes & Movers:
- Tier 5 – Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon are splitting snaps 45/55 over the last three games. Mixon gets the majority of rushing work, but Perine is playing most of the passing downs. Perine has a 20% TPRR against Kansas City’s most-used coverages. Perine delivered 12 touches last weekend with seven rushing attempts and five receptions. He could surprise with a similar workload this weekend – the utilization is there. Perine is the RB7 on a small slate.
Wide Receiver
| Tier | Pos Rank | Player | Opp | Game Total | Spread | Team Total | PPG |
| 1 | WR1 | Ja'Marr Chase | at KC | 48.0 | -1.5 | 24.75 | 18.3 |
| 1 | WR2 | DeVonta Smith | vs SF | 46.0 | -2.5 | 24.25 | 15.1 |
| 1 | WR3 | A.J. Brown | vs SF | 46.0 | -2.5 | 24.25 | 17.9 |
| 2 | WR4 | Deebo Samuel | at PHI | 46.0 | 2.5 | 21.75 | 13.7 |
| 2 | WR5 | Tee Higgins | at KC | 48.0 | -1.5 | 24.75 | 15.8 |
| 2 | WR6 | Brandon Aiyuk | at PHI | 46.0 | 2.5 | 21.75 | 13.6 |
| 3 | WR7 | Kadarius Toney | vs CIN | 48.0 | 1.5 | 23.25 | 5.6 |
| 3 | WR8 | JuJu Smith-Schuster | vs CIN | 48.0 | 1.5 | 23.25 | 12.0 |
| 3 | WR9 | Tyler Boyd | at KC | 48.0 | -1.5 | 24.75 | 10.3 |
| 3 | WR10 | Mecole Hardman | vs CIN | 48.0 | 1.5 | 23.25 | 11.7 |
| 4 | WR11 | Marquez Valdes-Scantling | vs CIN | 48.0 | 1.5 | 23.25 | 7.3 |
| 4 | WR12 | Jauan Jennings | at PHI | 46.0 | 2.5 | 21.75 | 5.4 |
| 4 | WR13 | Quez Watkins | vs SF | 46.0 | -2.5 | 24.25 | 5.1 |
| 4 | WR14 | Justin Watson | vs CIN | 48.0 | 1.5 | 23.25 | 3.2 |
| 5 | WR15 | Trenton Irwin | at KC | 48.0 | -1.5 | 24.75 | 7.6 |
| 5 | WR16 | Skyy Moore | vs CIN | 48.0 | 1.5 | 23.25 | 2.7 |
| 5 | WR17 | Zach Pascal | vs SF | 46.0 | -2.5 | 24.25 | 2.4 |
| 6 | WR18 | Ray-Ray McCloud III | at PHI | 46.0 | 2.5 | 21.75 | 3.6 |
Tier 1 – Ja’Marr Chase
Chase is ascending to a new level this season, distancing himself from the rest of the Bengals’ receiving corps as the clear-cut No. 1.
| Player | PFF Rec Grade | TPRR | YPRR | End Zone Targets | 3rd/4th Down Targets | FPTS |
| Ja’Marr Chase | 84.4 | 25% | 2.00 | 35% | 26% | 20.5 |
| Tee Higgins | 77.9 | 19% | 1.80 | 19% | 13% | 12.9 |
| Tyler Boyd | 69.6 | 13% | 1.28 | 9% | 18% | 9.7 |
| Hayden Hurst | 67.3 | 17% | 1.16 | 9% | 16% | 8.7 |
Chase is the most-targeted Bengal and is Joe Burrow’s favorite option in critical situations like end zone targets (35%) and third and fourth down situations (26%).
Not only do the Chiefs allow the most fantasy receiving points per game (59.3), but three of their four primary coverage schemes have been good to Chase. Kansas City utilizes Cover 2, Quarters, Cover 1, and Cover 3 on 71% of their plays, with things pretty evenly spread out.
Cover 2 has been a problem for Chase with a 14% TPRR, but he has destroyed Quarters (28%), Cover 1 (35%), and Cover 3 (28%).
You didn’t need to know all of that to know Chase deserves the No. 1 slot in the ranks because great WRs are good against most coverages.
Tier 1 – DeVonta Smith
Smith’s 28% target share in Year 2 – despite playing opposite of A.J. Brown – is an amazing accomplishment. Since 2011, no other WR duo has delivered two 28%-target share earners. The next closest duo was in 2014, with Andre Johnson (31%) and DeAndre Hopkins (25%).
This weekend, Smith faces a 49ers unit allowing the second-most fantasy points per game receiving (54.2) in non-overtime play of the four remaining teams. Furthermore, San Francisco primarily utilizes zone coverage, specializing in Cover 3 (39%), Quarters (16%), and Cover 2 (14%). They mix in Cover 1 (15%) as their primary man defense.
Per PFF data, Smith performs consistently across all four coverage concepts, with a top-two TPRR in each category for the Eagles.
Cover 3 | Quarters | Cover 1 | Cover 2 | Combined | |
| DeVonta Smith | 20% | 26% | 25% | 19% | 23% |
| A.J. Brown | 17% | 24% | 33% | 15% | 23% |
| Dallas Goedert | 23% | 17% | 16% | 15% | 17% |
| Miles Sanders | 12% | 15% | 5% | 16% | 11% |
Overall, the zone-heavy approach by the 49ers will cause the Eagles to spread the ball around more, but Smith is the favorite to lead the way on Sunday. No disrespect meant to Brown; he could still come through in a big way, but we are splitting hairs between two high-end talents.
Smith ranks one spot ahead of A.J. Brown as the No. 2 WR on the slate.
Tier 2 – Deebo Samuel
Samuel missed practice on Wednesday, but Kyle Shanahan said he expects the WR to play on Sunday. San Francisco will need the run-after-catch monster this weekend to compete with an Eagles team that allows the fewest points per game (48.1) in the receiving department.
Philadelphia utilizes Cover 3 (29%), Quarters (23%), and Cover 1 (20%) as their primary coverages. Against man (Cover 1), Brandon Aiyuk is the go-to option (28% TPRR) with Samuel taking a back seat (14%), but against Quarters and Cover 3, Deebo is the king.
| Player | Cover 3 | Quarters | Cover 1 | Combined |
| Deebo Samuel | 33% | 23% | 14% | 26% |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 23% | 10% | 28% | 23% |
| Christian McCaffrey | 20% | 22% | 19% | 20% |
| Jauan Jennings | 17% | 20% | 22% | 19% |
| George Kittle | 17% | 21% | 11% | 16% |
Samuel and McCaffrey have battled for some of the same underneath targets, but that hasn’t been an issue against these coverages – in their games together, the TPRR rates are the same.
The fourth-year WR hasn’t been able to reproduce his 2021 campaign, but he has three games of 22-plus points, and the coverage matchup against the Eagles could lend itself to a blowup opportunity.
Samuel is the top Tier 2 WR and the WR4 overall as long as he is healthy.
Tier 3 – Kadarius Toney
Despite a limited sample size, Toney has been an impressive WR over his first two seasons. His underlying data suggests that he has more to offer than his current gadget role in Kansas City, but projecting a sudden role change at this point isn’t logical.
However, with Patrick Mahomes battling a high-ankle sprain, the Chiefs could go out of their way to maximize short passes and more gadget-type looks. Based on how the second-year WR has been utilized so far against the Bengals’ favorite coverage looks (Cover 3, Cover 1, and Cover 2), it could also just happen naturally. Toney has the second-highest TPRR (28%) behind Travis Kelce (29%) versus those coverages.
Since his Week 16 return, Toney has a 60% TPRR inside the 10-yard line, so when he is on the field, he is getting chances to score. Unfortunately, his route participation remains low (26%) from striking distance.
Toney also has four rushing attempts over the last two games and could help supplement Jerrick McKinnon and Isiah Pacheco if Kansas City decides to lean more into the run game.
Toney is a boom-bust low-end WR1 thanks to a two-game slate.
Additional WR Notes & Movers:
- Tier 2 – Brandon Aiyuk is the second-most targeted 49ers passing-game option against the top-three coverages deployed by the Eagles with a 23% TPRR. Aiyuk averages 12.1 fantasy points per game in contests with Deebo Samuel. His average jumps to 16 in games without Samuel, who is questionable after missing Wednesday’s practice. Aiyuk is a mid-range WR1 on a short slate, but moves into Tier 1 if Samuel can’t play.
- Tier 3 – JuJu Smith-Schuster is on the field far more often than Kadarius Toney but rarely demands the ball. Since Toney’s return, Smith-Schuster has a 9% TPRR. Smith-Schuster is a low-end WR1, but only due to a short slate; he looks like WR4 material heading into 2023.
- Tier 3 – Tyler Boyd has been the forgotten man on the Bengals this season. His 13% TPRR is a career-low and ranks last out of the primary four receiving options, behind Hayden Hurst. On the surface, this looks like a positive matchup for Cincinnati receivers, but Boyd doesn’t rank in the Bengals' top-5 TPRR options in three of the four primary coverages used by the Chiefs. Boyd is a low-end WR1, thanks to a short slate, but he would be in WR4/WR5 territory on a full slate.
Tight End
| Tier | Pos Rank | Player | Opp | Game Total | Spread | Team Total | PPG |
| 1 | TE1 | Travis Kelce | vs CIN | 48.0 | 1.5 | 23.25 | 19.2 |
| 2 | TE2 | George Kittle | at PHI | 46.0 | 2.5 | 21.75 | 13.0 |
| 2 | TE3 | Dallas Goedert | vs SF | 46.0 | -2.5 | 24.25 | 11.9 |
| 3 | TE4 | Hayden Hurst | at KC | 48.0 | -1.5 | 24.75 | 8.0 |
| 4 | TE5 | Noah Gray | vs CIN | 48.0 | 1.5 | 23.25 | 4.2 |
TE Notes & Movers:
- Tier 2 – George Kittle scored seven TDs from Week 15 to Week 18, but has come up dry in the playoffs. Three of those games were without Deebo Samuel, who is questionable for this weekend after missing practice on Wednesday. In games with Samuel, Kittle averages 10.9 points. However, that elevates to 20.1 without Samuel. Kittle is a boom-bust TE1 with Samuel playing, but joins Tier 1 with Kelce if Samuel is out.
- Tier 2 – Dallas Goedert has target shares of 19%, 23%, and 22% over the last three games. While the competition for targets is fierce in Philadelphia, the Eagles funnel most of their offense through A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Goedert. The 49ers will force the Eagles to spread things around more with their heavy-zone scheme, and Goedert is the No. 1 target on the Eagles against Cover 3, which is the 49ers’ favorite look (39%). Given some of the WR options this weekend, using two TEs could be a great way to differentiate lineups while not giving away upside, and Goedert should be in the mix. He is my TE3 for championship weekend.
- Tier 3 – Hayden Hurst ranks ahead of Tyler Boyd in TPRR for the season and is stronger against the Chiefs' favorite coverages. Hurst should be in consideration over Boyd, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling as a flex option in DFS this weekend. Hurst is a low-end TE1.
