2023 Rookie of the Year Betting Odds

With the 2023 NFL Draft completed, excitement for the incoming rookie class continues to grow. Which rookies are the current favorites to win rookie of the year awards, and which rookies actually have the best chance to win? Geoff Ulrich checks the betting landscape for offensive and defensive rookie of the year heading into 2023 and gives a few sleepers and best bets.

Offensive Rookie of the Year Betting Odds

The NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year (OROY) award odds have been updated following the NFL Draft, as all of the incoming rookies are now locked into their respective teams for 2023. With the draft over, we can start forecasting the roles these new players will have for the coming season and what their overall potential will be on the field and in the box score.

That means it’s a good time to start scouting the odds, as these rookies will begin working with their new teams soon. Those who are in beneficial positions will start to get noticed more and more as the season inches closer, which can potentially cause their odds to win OROY shift dramatically. 

We’re tracking the sportsbooks odds this year in the table below. The current odds for OROY are as follows:

Odds courtesy of BetMGM sportsbook, last updated 1/6/24

Top Five OROY Candidates

*Updated 1/6/24

The current market for OROY had the following five players at the top.

C.J. Stroud (-900)

Stroud ends the year as the heavy, heavy favorite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year. The Texans QB threw for 4108 yards and was third in yards per attempt (8.2) among all QBs. He led a Texans team that won just three games last year to the division title. 

Puka Nacua (+400)

Nacua turned what was once a formality (Stroud winning OROY) into an actual debate by how strong he finished the season. The Rams WR set the rookie record for receptions (105) and yards (1,486). While he’ll likely finish second, not many people would scoff if Nucua pulled off the upset. 

Zay Flowers (+15000)

Flowers had a solid rookie season but like all rookie WRs in 2023 he was completely overshadowed by Nacua. He finished with 77 catches, 858 yards, and 5 TDs. With Mark Andrews out he’ll remain an instrumental player for the Ravens in the playoffs. 

Sam LaPorta (+15000)

LaPorta was one of a couple of rookie TEs to flourish this season. He was able to post 86 catches, 889 yards, and a remarkable 10 TDs. If this wasn’t such a strong rookie class, he may have gotten some 1st place votes. 

Jahmyr Gibbs (+20000)

Like LaPorta, Gibbs flourished in the Lions high-tempo system. He posted 945 rushing yards, 316 receiving yards, and 11 total TDs. Sharing the backfield with David Montgomery limited his upside but, for fantasy purposes, he’ll be a high-demand name next season.  

Past 10 OROY Winners 

Note that only three of the last 10 OROY winners have been QBs, so unlike MVP, this award is fairly wide open to RBs and WRs (and maybe even a TE this year considering the quality of this TE draft class).

OROY Trends

The last 10 OROY winners have been spread in terms of positional allocation. While most offensive awards are dominated by QBs, QBs have surprisingly only won OROY three times since 2014. Conversely, the sometimes-devalued position of RB has had four OROY winners in the past decade. 

A lot of the OROY award dynamics likely have to do with how teams treat rookies. QB is obviously a more complex position to learn as a rookie, and so teams will often try to ease in a rookie QB. Conversely, many teams draft a rookie RB with the intention of using him to replace a veteran, which then opens up a path for immediate opportunity starting from Week 1. Here are some general positional guidelines to consider when betting OROY.

QB

Despite having only won OROY three times in the past decade, QBs are still the marquee position for this award. A rookie QB who leads his team to success in Year 1 is always going to get heavy consideration from the voters.

Guidelines for betting QBs to win OROY:

• Is he immediately locked into the starting job?
• If he’s not the starter, is this reflected in the odds and his implied probability? And is there still an opportunity for him to become the starter before Week 1?
• What is the state of his offensive line?
• Is he in a weak division?
• Is his offensive scheme likely to be pass-heavy either by design or due to a weaker defense?

RB

RBs have done surprisingly well in winning OROY over the past 10 years. Two first-round draft picks in Barkley and Todd Gurley have won the award in the last decade, and we also got one of the biggest surprise winners from the position in Alvin Kamara in 2017. Still, it’s best to be careful with betting on RBs to win OROY, especially in draft classes with multiple rookie QBs selected in the top 10 overall picks. 

Guidelines for betting RBs to win OROY:

• Is he projected for a committee backfield or likely to have a true three-down role?
• Will his offense provide lots of short-yardage TD conversion opportunities, or could he potentially be outscored by other RBs in lesser roles?
• What is the competition like? How many starting rookie QBs will he be up against for OROY?

WR/TE

We have now seen WRs win OROY in each of the past two seasons, with Ja’Marr Chase and Garrett Wilson having taken home OROY in 2021 and 2022, respectively. Both players fell to weaker teams where they were able to grab large target shares right off the bat.

Talent-wise, it’s also important to note that both Chase and Wilson were insanely-high draft picks and both were drafted in strong WR classes. While the 2023 rookie class does offer some serious talent at TE in Dalton Kincaid, Sam LaPorta, and Michael Mayer, among others, it’s important to note that a TE has never won OROY since its creation in 1967. 

Guidelines for betting WRs or TEs to win OROY:

• What will his target volume look like in Year 1?
• Does he have a path to being featured as the top target in the offense, and how likely is it that he will achieve a 20% or higher team target share?
• Does he have potential to see red-zone targets, or will he just be used between the 20s?
• What is his big-play potential, and how is his QB's deep-ball completion rate?

Draft position

The recent trends for OROY have favored sticking with the higher-drafted players and elite prospects. First-round draft picks have won the award in each of the last five seasons. Four of the last five winners have been top-five overall draft picks, with two top-five drafted QBs in Kyler Murray and Justin Herbert having won OROY since 2019.

Jan 16, 2023; Tampa, Florida, USA; Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (4) drops back to pass against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the first half during the wild card game at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

We did have a fourth-round QB in Dak Prescott win the award in 2016, but he needed multiple injuries before becoming Dallas's starter in Week 1 as a rookie. Unless you can jump on some injury news before odds shift, late-round QBs are nothing more than a Hail Mary bet, at best.

RBs likely offer the best value if you are looking for a long shot. RBs have won OROY four times in the last decade, and two of those winners were drafted outside of the first round. Also, many teams now employ committee backfields, which means that if a rookie comes in and impresses, he can quickly carve out a role. Injuries to RBs are also frequent, so if a starter misses time, a rookie RB can potentially find himself in a large role sooner than expected.

If you want some longshot bets to eye this year, both Zach Charbonnet and Roschon Johnson offer some good upside with odds of +4000 or higher.

When should you bet on OROY?

There is no perfect time to bet on OROY. When you’re betting on an award that won't be determined until over eight months in the future, you need to be sure that you're looking at all the angles and risks involved.

Players with defined roles who were high draft picks like Bryce Young and Bijan Robinson, likely won't see their odds move much from now until the regular season begins barring a major injury. Players who were selected later in the NFL Draft or have more question marks about their roles will be the ones who could see major shifts in their OROY betting odds as we get into training camp and the preseason.

If you’re betting on OROY early in the offseason, it’s likely best to invest on a couple of players with higher odds who might have potential paths to every-down or high-usage roles for their respective offenses early on as rookies.

You can start as early as NOW on BetMGM, where you can also get up to $1,000 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win. Sign up below to get started!

Defensive Rookie of the Year Betting Odds

On the other side of the ball, the Defensive Rookie of the Year (DROY) award betting odds are also live and offer us a unique opportunity to bet on some of the new defensive talent entering the league.

Most awards in the NFL are offense-centric. With the public less well-versed in both the positional values and the talent on the defensive-side of the ball, there can often be some value lurking for these defensive awards. Unlike the offensive rookies, where every snap or play will be reported on during the preseason, information about defensive rookies is sometimes harder to find and harder still to interpret.

We’ll go through the top names for the DROY award below. Just like with OROY, we’re also tracking the sportsbooks odds for the top DROY candidates:

Odds courtesy of BetMGM sportsbook, last updated 1/6/24

A cornerback won this award last season, and there is currently one cornerbacks with implied win probabilities greater than 1% to win this award. Devon Witherspoon (the fifth overall pick in the draft) has the shortest odds of any rookie cornerback at +5000.

DROY Current Favorite: Jalen Carter (-130)

Carter was once hailed as the top prospect in the 2023 NFL Draft. His involvement in a fatal automobile accident and a lackluster pro day led to him falling, which then allowed the Eagles to snag him with the ninth overall pick.

At Georgia, Carter was an absolute menace, and his rare combination of power and speed for a defensive lineman makes him likely to dominate from the get-go. He’s also on a marquee team in the Eagles, which gives him a solid leg up. The last two DROY winners, Sauce Gardner and Micah Parsons, both played for two of the bigger market teams in the league.

You can bet Carter on BetMGM, where you can also get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win. Sign up below and bet Carter today!

Top Five DROY Candidates

The market for DROY had the following five players with the shortest odds.

Jalen Carter (-130)

Carter had a solid season ending the year with 6 sacks, 5 stuffs, and a defensive TD. Carter was once as low as -1000 to win this award but the Eagles defensive struggles (not all Carter’s fault) was a huge story down the stretch. Carter is still the favorite to win DROY but is no lock.  

Will Anderson (+150)

Anderson has played one game less than Carter but he’s barely trailing him in the odds. The Texans closed strong and Anderson does have strong underlying stats including 7 sacks and 10.5 stuffs. The Texans making the playoffs has made this a very close race. 

Kobie Turner (+500)

Turner rose in prominence over the last few weeks of the season and ended the year at +500 to win this award. The defensive tackle had seven sacks and was one of the leaders of a Rams defensive line that majorly outperformed expectations. 

Devon Witherspoon (+5000)

Witherspoon had a solid season but did miss three games. He was second in odds for this award for much of the year but got bypassed late in the year by Turner and Anderson – whose teams outperformed. Witherspoon did end the year with a Pro Bowl selection and QBs throwing at him only completed 55% of their passes. 

Brian Branch (+6600)

Branch was an integral starter for the Lions all year. The safety ended the year with 3 INTs, a forced fumble, and 74 tackles. He was never really in contention to win this award and didn't benefit from playing for a fast-paced team like the Lions who allow a lot of pass attempts.

Past 10 DROY Winners

Favorites have dominated the DROY race in recent history. Over the past four seasons, the player with the longest preseason odds was Gardner last year, whose odds were around +1000 right before the 2022 season began. 

That doesn’t mean that you should shy away from all long-shot bets though, as we’ve also seen three players with preseason odds of +2000 or longer win DROY in the past decade.

DROY Trends 

Much like OROY, recent DROY winners have been spread out in terms of positional allocation. Over the last 10 years, one trend to note is the dominance of defensive linemen from 2013 to 2019. Starting with Aaron Donald in 2013, defensive linemen have won DROY five times in nine seasons, with the last having been Chase Young in 2020. 

That trend has shifted of late, as linebackers and cornerbacks have now won DROY four times in the last six years. It's worth noting that while Darius Leonard and Micah Parsons were technically listed as linebackers, they still put up gaudy sack numbers (more on that below). 

Number of DROY winners by position since 2013:

• Edge and DL - 6
• CB - 2
• LB - 2

Stat trends: sacks are key

Sacks are one of the most trackable stats for defensive players and are also easy to present to the public, so it’s no shock that most of the recent edger rushers and defensive linemen DROY winners logged seven or more sacks as rookies.

• Aaron Donald (2014) – 9 sacks
• Joey Bosa (2016) – 10.5 sacks
• Shaquille Leonard (2018) – 7 sacks
• Nick Bosa (2019) – 13 sacks
• Chase Young (2020) – 7.5 sacks
• Micah Parsons (2021) – 9 sacks

You could argue that cornerback has recently become more of a marquee position, and last year, two of the top DROY favorites by the end of the season were cornerbacks (Gardner and Woolen). However, cornerbacks still don't get the same level of attention or credit as other positions that have opportunities for sacks, so betting on cornerbacks to win DROY preseason probably isn’t a great idea.

Team trends: target team defenses that can show vast improvement

Over the past decade or so, one underlying narrative for the DROY award has been the ability of the team defense overall to show vast improvement from the prior year in various statistical categories.

As we can see below, a solid team improvement in even basic defensive categories like average points allowed has been a trademark associated with each of the past five DROY winners.

Highly-drafted defensive rookies who help immediately improve previously weak defenses normally get most of the credit from the media even if coaching changes or veteran additions are major contributing factors. Look for elite defensive prospects drafted by teams that can potentially make a jump from a poor showing last season to identify value in the DROY betting odds.

When should you bet on DROY?

The betting odds for DROY tend to give us a little more in-season flexibility than at OROY. Since defensive players simply don’t get as hyped as offensive players, it can sometimes be a couple of weeks before a defensive rookie’s on-field performance gets noticed.

In 2022, both Woolen and Gardner were sitting at around +10000 and +1500, respectively, after Week 3. Both rookies were starters for their respective teams and had already put up some solid performances but didn't see their odds really move until a couple of weeks later.

While it’s perfectly fine to bet on one of the DROY candidates above now, the DROY favorites could get better odds closer to the start of the season or in-season if they start the year a bit slowly.

You can monitor the odds on BetMGM with their full market of DROY selections and get up to $1,000 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win by creating a new account below.