College Football Best Bets for Week 11: Trust the Indiana Offense
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College Football Best Bets for Week 11: Trust the Indiana Offense

Kody Malstrom breaks down his three best college football bets for Week 11, including angles on USC vs. Indiana and Texas vs. LSU.

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Indiana continues to rack up the wins, but the Hoosiers are flirting with danger after needing a second-half spurt to skate past Minnesota. With USC on deck, Indiana must quickly round back into form or risk falling out of the playoff picture with only a handful of games left in the regular season.

We'll start with that Big Ten matchup and dive into the rest of my favorite college football bets for Week 11.

Week 11 College Football Best Bets

USC vs. Indiana (Team Total o30.5) (-106, Caesars)

Indiana’s bye week came at the worst possible time: Every Big Ten team the Hoosiers have beaten this season lost, and Indiana dropped to No. 9 in the latest CFP rankings. While it’s tough to fathom how a second loss would knock Indiana out of the playoff picture, the margin for error is razor-thin while hovering near the cutoff line.

Fortunately for the Hoosiers, Josh Hoover will have a great opportunity to get back up off the mat against USC by throwing over the top of a defense that ranks outside the top-75 in success rate, explosiveness, finishing drives and havoc. With the Trojans struggling to generate pressure, Indiana’s pass catchers have more time in the open field to create space, improving the quality of Hoover’s throws.

On the other side of the ball, negative regression is looming large over USC while the offense is locked into a battle against a defense that resides near the top of the board in EPA allowed per play and in points per opportunity. When the Trojans stall out, Hoover will be given generous field position, increasing the Hoosiers' chances of clearing the over on the team total. 

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Texas (Team Total u20.5) vs. LSU (-102, BetMGM)

Since the start of the regular season, Arch Manning has been unable to find his footing, leading an offense that ranks 80th in success rate while generating more than one turnover-worthy play per game. With Manning struggling to stretch out the defense, opposing defenses have been able to spy LBs without giving up too much ground, holding the Longhorns QB to just 1.2 yards per carry.

In a daunting matchup against LSU, Texas' struggles on offense are poised to persist against a secondary that excels in coverage, per top-12 marks in dropback success rate, PPA and explosiveness. Place a wager on the Longhorns to be held under the team total of 20.5, with intentions of adding more to your position should the number tick up to the key number of 21.

Purdue vs. Iowa (-17) (-112, BetMGM)

After a hot start to the year, Iowa’s offense has fallen back down to reality, entering Week 11 ranked 53rd in success rate and 70th in finishing drives. Even with Hank Brown taking care of the ball, the Hawkeyes' lack of big-play ability makes them overly reliant on methodical drives, which makes it difficult to consistently stay ahead of the sticks.

Heading into Saturday’s Big Ten tilt against Purdue, Brown will be able to create explosive plays at a higher rate by picking apart a secondary that ranks near dead last in dropback EPA allowed per play. With the Boilermakers' back-end struggling to keep a body near the point of contact, Brown’s passing lanes will widen, leading to a higher completion percentage.

When behind on the scoreboard, Purdue will struggle to keep pace while trying to move the ball on a defense that is allowing a 34.2% success rate. If the Boilermakers are actually able to get into scoring position, expect points to come at a premium, with the Hawkeyes holding opponents to just 2.62 points per opportunity.

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