Commanders vs. Giants Picks, Odds, Predictions, and Player Props for TNF Week 10

In a rematch from a tie against the New York Giants, Jayden Daniels will have the opportunity to get his revenge after he committed a blunder in overtime by staying in bounds with barely any time left on the clock. With the Dallas Cowboys breathing down their neck, the Giants can ill afford to lose on Thursday, heightening the excitement heading into the divisional matchup.

Washington Commanders vs New York Giants Betting Odds For Week 10

Spread: Giants -1.5 (-106, Caesars)
Moneyline: Giants (-125, DraftKings)
Game Total: 42.5 (Over -110/Under -110, FanDuel)

When healthy, Jayden Daniels is arguably one of the more versatile QBs in the league, hovering in the top 15 in QB EPA per play and in CPOE while averaging 8.1 yards per carry. His dual-threat ability applies pressure to opposing LBs, forcing them to creep up to the line of scrimmage, which creates more space on the back end for his pass catchers to exploit.

On the other side of the field, J.J. McCarthy is still trying to find his footing in his new home while taking the reins as the Giants' QB1. With McCarthy under center, the Giants have steadily improved on offense, climbing up to 15th in EPA per play.

With both offenses starting to find an identity, oddsmakers believe Thursday’s NFC East tilt will be a tight one, opening the Giants at -1.5. Bettors were quick to pound the under on the full game total, steaming the number down to 42.5 after it reopened at 45.

Prediction & Pick For Washington Commanders vs New York Giants Week 10 Matchup

The Pick: Commanders Team Total u20.5 (-105, Fanatics)

While all eyes have been on McCarthy, the Giants' defense has quietly been efficient, ranking in the top 12 in EPA allowed per play. Arvell Reese has been a monster in the middle of the field, creating havoc at a high rate while steadily pulling away at the top of the oddsboard for the defensive rookie of the year award.

The Giants' secondary has also been able to hold its own in coverage, entering Week 10 ranked fifth in dropback success rate. When the defensive line is able to collapse the pocket, opposing QBs are forced to throw into narrow passing lanes, making it difficult for them to get into a groove.

With the Commanders lacking a reliable WR2 to help pull defensive attention away from Stefon Diggs, the Giants will be able to shade their coverage toward Daniels' go-to target without sacrificing too much ground elsewhere. This will also give the Giants the ability to anchor LBs across the middle to help neutralize Daniels' legs before he is able to take off and run.

The Giants' extra bodies in the box will also help stuff the run at a higher rate, giving the Commanders no clear path to get into the red zone. Place a wager on Washington to be held under the team total of 20.5 with intentions of increasing your exposure should the number tick back up to the key number of 21.

Best Player Prop Bet For Washington Commanders vs New York Giants

Jayden Daniels - u19.5 Pass Completions (-112, FanDuel)

Even though Daniels has been able to keep a clean sheet, he has still struggled to stretch out the coverage with his arm while completing just 63.9% of his passes. With the Commanders' offensive line ranking 23rd in true pass set grade, Daniels is given little time in the pocket to operate while his pass catchers are jammed at the line of scrimmage, lowering the quality of his throws.

Not only will Daniels struggle to weave the ball through tight windows, but the Giants' pressure at the second level will force the Commanders' QB to scramble out of the pocket at a high rate, chipping away at his total number of pass attempts. Playing on a short week also tends to lead to a conservative game script, keeping the ball on the ground, which will drain the clock in the process.