Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants Picks, Odds, Predictions, and Player Props for SNF Week 1

The first Sunday of the NFL season wraps up with a classic NFC East rivalry. There is no love lost between the Cowboys and Giants, and both teams enter this season with optimism.

For the Cowboys, they’re hoping to get back to the playoffs after missing the past two seasons. They’ve significantly upgraded their defense since the beginning of last season, and their offense was already one of the best in football.

For the Giants, they’re looking to surprise under new head coach John Harbaugh. While the playoffs feel like a long shot for New York, they have some blue-chip talents on both sides of the ball. If Jaxson Dart can take a leap in Year 2, it’s possible that they can push for the postseason.

Let’s dive into all the betting metrics for Cowboys-Giants.

Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants Betting Odds For Week 1

Spread: Cowboys -3.0 (-105, DraftKings)
Moneyline: Cowboys -158; Giants +140
Game Total: 48.5

The Cowboys are listed as 3.0-point road favorites in this contest, which feels reasonable. Their offense was explosive last season, ranking second in yards per game and seventh in points, and their defense is worlds better than it was at the start of last year. Adding Quinnen Williams from the Jets at the trade deadline made a massive difference, and they continued to add to their defense this offseason. They added a potential game-changer at safety in the draft in Caleb Downs, and they bolstered the pass rush with the additions of Rashan Gary and Von Miller.

If the new-look defense can hold up their end of the equation, this has the potential to be a really good team. They ranked 30th in points allowed and dead last in yardage allowed last season. They currently have the seventh-best odds to win the NFC, and I think there’s some value with that number.

However, I don’t think the Cowboys are just going to roll through the Giants. New York is a young team with plenty of talent, and the addition of John Harbaugh as head coach could be huge. Harbaugh lost some shine in recent years with the Ravens, but he has historically been an excellent coach. He has just one season with fewer than eight wins for his career, and he has 11 seasons with double-digit wins.

Harbaugh has some pieces to work with in New York. Malik Nabers is one of the best receivers in football when healthy, while the defense features a bunch of potential studs. Brian Burns is already a monster—he led the team with 16.5 sacks last season—while Abdul Carter, Arvell Reese and Kayvon Thibodeaux all have upside.

Of course, the Giants’ season will largely come down to Dart. He showed some flashes as a rookie, but they were primarily with his legs. He averaged more than 40 rushing yards per game as a starter, and he had nine rushing scores. If he can do a bit more with his arm in his second season, the Giants could surprise some people this year.

Prediction & Pick For Cowboys vs. Giants Week 1 Matchup

The Pick: Giants +3.0 (-110; Fanatics)

A couple of interesting, dueling trends stand out in this matchup.

First, Dak Prescott has historically been great as a favorite and in divisional games. He’s 26-12 ATS in that split for his career, good for a cover rate of more than 68%.

However, most of that damage has come at home. Prescott is still 10-7 ATS as a divisional road favorite, but that’s not quite as impressive as his home mark (16-5 ATS).

The more interesting trend in my eyes involves divisional home underdogs in Week 1. From my Week 1 Best Bets article: divisional home underdogs are 19-6 ATS in the first week of the season since 2012, good for a return on investment of better than 46%.

I ultimately expect this to be a defensive-focused game, which pushes me toward the Giants in this spot. Our NFL Game Model also likes getting the Giants at +3.0, grading out as a three-star play.

Unfortunately, the sharps see things a bit differently. There has been some sharp action on the Cowboys, and it’s possible this line could get to 3.5 before kickoffs. If you like the Giants like me, you’re probably best off waiting to place this bet for as long as possible.

Best Player Prop Bet For Cowboys vs. Giants

Darnell Mooney Under 19.5 Receiving Yards (-110; DraftKings)

The Giants are going to feature a completely revamped receiving corps this season. Wan’Dale Robinson left for the Titans in free agency, while Darnell Mooney was released at the end of training camp.

Mooney is one potential option for the team at receiver, but it’s fair to wonder how much he’ll actually play in Week 1. At best, he’s the No. 3 receiver on the depth chart. Nabers is the clear-cut No. 1 option, while Malachi Fields has reportedly earned the No. 2 spot. Odell Beckham is also going to be in the mix, so snaps could be tough to come by for Mooney.

Even if he gets more snaps than expected, there’s no guarantee it will lead to much production. Nabers has been a massive target hog for most of his career, posting a target share north of 30% in both seasons. Add in Isaiah Likely at tight end and the fact that the Giants profile as a run-heavy team, and I’m grabbing the value with under 19.5 receiving yards for Mooney.

We have him projected for just 1.9 targets and 15 receiving yards, which is well below his current prop.