Lions vs Bills Picks, Odds, Predictions, and Player Props for TNF Week 2
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Lions vs Bills Picks, Odds, Predictions, and Player Props for TNF Week 2

Kody Malstrom breaks down the Detroit Lions versus Buffalo Bills matchup from a betting perspective with predictions, picks, and prop bets.

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Fresh off an impressive win over the Houston Texans, the Buffalo Bills now host the Detroit Lions in the debut of their new stadium. Expect fireworks from the opening kickoff, pitting two high-powered offenses against each other that can flip the field in the blink of an eye to set themselves up in scoring position.

Detroit Lions vs Buffalo Bills Betting Odds For Week 2

  • Spread: Bills -3.5 (-135, BetMGM)
  • Moneyline: Bills (-238, DraftKings)
  • Game Total: 54.5 (Over -113/Under -108, BetRivers)

Another year, another abysmal performance from the Lions' secondary, forcing them to play in highly volatile contests. While their front seven was able to bottle up the New Orleans Saints' ground game, their back end struggled to slow down their pass attack, ranking below league average in Dropback Success Rate.

If the Lions want to actually make a run at the Super Bowl, their secondary will need to quickly round back into competitive form. The injuries to Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph certainly do not help, forcing them to rely on their backups just to keep them afloat.

In a highly anticipated matchup against the Buffalo Bills, expect Josh Allen to consistently beat the Lions over the top, forcing their secondary to stretch out their coverage to the benefit of their ground game. With the Lions capable of matching their output, we will be in for a barn burner, resulting in a thrilling high-scoring affair.

Prediction & Pick For Detroit Lions vs Buffalo Bills Week 2 Matchup

  • The Pick: Over 54.5 (-113, BetRivers)

The Bills' performance against the Texans was stunning, blanketing a defense that is projected to rival the Seattle Seahawks as the best unit in the league. Allen had no issue with picking apart their gaps in coverage, throwing for 334 yards and 2 touchdowns while completing 68.96% of his passes. Allen was also just as lethal on the ground, punching in another two scores with his legs.

Heading into Thursday night, Allen will have a great opportunity to build on his momentum by taking advantage of a defense that currently resides in the bottom half of the board in Def EPA. His dual-threat ability will force the Lions to anchor their LBs, widening his passing lanes on the outside.

On the other side of the field, the Lions fared far better on offense, climbing into the top 15 in Success Rate. While Jared Goff was middling at best, Jahmyr Gibbs was able to keep them ahead of the sticks, gashing the Saints' front seven to the tune of 156 yards while averaging 5.4 yards per carry.

With the Bills struggling to bring down opposing RBs in the trenches, Gibbs will be able to consistently reach the second level of their defense, increasing his chances of generating an explosive play. This will force the Bills to stack the box at a higher rate, giving Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams more room to work with in their efforts to create separation to help Goff connect with his pass catchers at a higher rate.

Best Player Prop Bet For Detroit Lions vs Buffalo Bills

Josh Allen - o288.5 Pass+Rush Yds (-115, bet365)

Defending against mobile QBs has been an issue for the Lions in years past, and Thursday night’s matchup against the Bills will be no different. Not only is Allen a dynamic runner, but he has also developed into an efficient passer, ranking in the top 10 in CPOE and EPA per play.

The protection he receives from his offensive line has played a major role in his development, fielding a front five that finished last season ranked eighth overall in True Pass Set Grade. Should the Bills' offensive line neutralize the Lions' front seven, the amount of Havoc in Allen’s throws will decline, making it easier to sustain their drives down the field while stuffing the stat sheet in the process. 

To help diversify your risk, escalator bet Allen’s Pass+Rush Yards by placing smaller wagers on his alternate overs.

Players Mentioned in this Article

  1. Josh Allen
    JoshAllen
    QBBUFBUF
    PPG
    35.7
    Proj
    23.1

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