Los Angeles Chargers vs. Buffalo Bills Picks, Odds, Predictions, and Player Props for Week 3

After starting the year 0-2, the Los Angeles Chargers may have dug themselves too deep of a whole, considering the quality of opponents ramping up—including a Week 3 matchup against the Buffalo Bills. With Josh Allen firing on all cylinders, the Chargers will need to quickly iron out the kinks or risk falling behind on the scoreboard.

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Buffalo Bills Betting Odds For Week 3

• Spread: Bills -7 (-115, DraftKings)
• Moneyline: Bills (-335, Caesars)
• Game Total: 50 (Over -110/Under -110, Fanatics)

Even after signing Mike McDaniel, the Chargers have been lifeless on offense, ranking near the bottom of the board in DVOA. With the offense struggling to play at a competitive level, the Chargers were unable to hold off the Las Vegas Raiders and Arizona Cardinals, losing a pair of games where they were listed as -8.5 favorites.

Heading into Sunday, oddsmakers have flipped the Chargers from the sizable favorite to a +7 underdog to the Bills. While a 15.5-point swing seems drastic, the Chargers have shown no signs of life two games into the year, lowering the floor until they are able to round back into form.

Unfortunately for L.A., the Bills will have no issue moving the ball down the field at a high rate while setting a scoring pace too fast for them to keep up with. This will lead to a lopsided affair, plummeting the Chargers' odds of making the playoffs even further before they reach the quarter mark of the season.

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Prediction & Pick For Los Angeles Chargers vs. Buffalo Bills Week 3 Matchup

• The Pick: Bills -7 (-115, DraftKings)

While the Chargers have struggled to get into a groove, the Bills have been dynamic on offense, leading the league in offensive DVOA and EPA. Allen’s hot start to the year has played a major role in the Bills' success, climbing into the top-five in QB EPA per play and CPOE.

Against the Chargers, Allen will be able to strengthen his claim for the MVP award by gashing a defense that struggles to defend all three levels of the field. When the Chargers defensive line is unable to collapse the interior of the offensive line, Dalton Kincaid and Khalil Shakir will be able to pick apart the gaps in coverage, giving Allen a high-quality target to throw to.

On the off chance Allen is flushed out of the pocket, he is just as dangerous with his legs, averaging 4.6 yards per carry. His dual-threat abilities will force the Chargers to make a decision: either anchor the LBs in the box and risk getting burned over the top, or spread them out in coverage, which will open up wider running lanes for Allen to exploit.

On the other side of the field, the Bills secondary will have a great opportunity to bounce back with Justin Herbert struggling to air out the ball. With Buffalo’s defensive line generating pressure at a high rate, the Chargers pass catchers will have less time to create space, making it easier for the Bills secondary to create disruptions.

Best Player Prop Bet For Los Angeles Chargers vs Buffalo Bills

Josh Allen - o239.5 Passing Yards (-114, FanDuel)

At the start of his career, Allen was bogged down by turnovers, holding the Bills back from being a contender capable of making a run to the Super Bowl while stalling out the offense. Fast forward to today, and Allen has been able to cut down on his total number of turnover-worthy plays, turning the Bills offense into one of the most versatile units in the league.

With the Chargers' defensive line struggling to bring down Allen, the amount of havoc in his throws will decline, leading to a higher completion percentage. The protection Allen receives from his offensive line will also give him more time in the pocket to operate, playing behind a group that ranks sixth overall in true pass set grade.