MLB Bets Today - Picks For Wednesday, April 17
Wednesday’s MLB slate is on the early side, with most of the action taking place in the afternoon. There are 12 games starting at 4:10 p.m. ET or earlier, and only one game will start after 7:00. That frees up our evenings to focus on the NBA play-in tournament – thanks MLB!
Let’s dive into five of my favorite options for Wednesday’s slate.
MLB Bets Today - Bets For Wednesday, April 17
Houston Astros ML vs. Atlanta Braves (+122; Caesars)
The Astros have had a disastrous start to the year, and things don’t figure to get much easier on Wednesday. They’re taking on one of the best teams in baseball, and they’ll be facing one of Atlanta’s top starters.
That said, Max Fried hasn’t exactly looked like himself to start the year. His ERA currently sits at 8.74, and he’s been rocked in two of his first three outings. He did rebound in his last start vs. the Marlins, but Miami is an extremely easy matchup for left-handers: They own a 47 wRC+ in that split, which is the worst mark in the league.
Things will be tougher for Fried on Wednesday. Despite their struggles, the Astros remain one of the best offenses in baseball against southpaws. They’re No. 2 in wRC+ against left-handers to start the year after finishing third in that department last season. Most of their top bets are right handed, and their two most imposing lefties (Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker) are still capable hitters against southpaws.
The Astros’ offense makes them live dogs in this spot. I’d play them at anything better than +120.
New York Mets ML vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (-135; BetMGM)
After starting the year 0-5, the Mets have crawled all the way back to a 9-8 record. They’ll secured their fourth consecutive series win, but they’ll look for a sweep vs. the Pirates on Wednesday.
Despite their improved play, the Mets remain undervalued in the betting market. They’ll have Luis Severino on the mound on Wednesday, who has impressed through his first three starts with the Mets. He’s pitched to a 3.00 ERA with a 10.20 K/9, and he’s posted above-average marks in Stuff+, Location+, and Pitching+.
On the other side, Bailey Falter has been one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball to start the year. He’s managed just 3.6 strikeouts per nine innings, so opposing batters have routinely put the ball in play. The only reason Falter has survived has been a paltry .170 BABIP that is due for some serious regression.
The Mets also have the edge offensively, so -135 is a solid price tag to target them at on Wednesday.
More MLB Bets for Wednesday, April 17
Reds-Mariners F5 Under 4.5 (-125) – Andrew Abbott and Bryce Miller should be able to keep the runs off the scoreboard to start this contest. Both starters have an ERA of 2.60 or better to start the year, and neither of these offenses are particularly imposing. The Mariners are 20th in wRC+ vs. southpaws, while the Reds are 20th vs. right-handed pitchers.
Twins ML at Orioles (-118) – This stands out as one of the bigger pitching mismatches on the slate. Pablo Lopez is one of the most underappreciated starters in baseball, and he’ll be facing a pitcher who hasn’t thrown in the major leagues since 2017 in Albert Suarez. The Twins have some issues offensively, but they should be able to do some damage in this spot.
Reid Detmers Over 5.5 strikeouts (-155) – Detmers has been racking up the punchouts to start the year, averaging 13.5 strikeouts per nine innings through his first three starts. He was also in double-figures last year, and he draws a strong matchup vs. the Rays (23.9% strikeout rate vs. left-handers). The Angels’ bullpen has been seriously taxed of late, so Detmers could also work deeper into the game than usual.
2024 MLB Bets Record
- Yesterday: 3-2 (+0.625 units)
- Season: 37-30-2 (+0.195 units)
All bets are based on half units unless stated otherwise.
Underdogs are risking a half unit, while favorites are to win a half unit. For an example, check out the free Fantasy Life MLB Bet Tracker.
