2024 NBA Play-In Tournament Best Bets for the First Round of the 2024 NBA Play-In Tournament
We’ve officially made it through the NBA regular season.
I'm not going to lie, things got a bit ugly at times down the stretch. NBA teams are not afraid to tank when they’re out of it, and the good teams are not above resting their best players either. The result is some wildly uncompetitive contests over the final month or so.
That said, the time for tanking and resting players is over. The NBA Play-In Tournament starts on Tuesday, and the stakes for those teams couldn’t be higher. The winners advance to the playoffs, while the losers will be relegated to their couches.
As a reminder, the play-in tournament works as follows.
The teams that finished seventh and eighth in each contest will meet in the first round, and the winner will earn the No. 7 seed in the playoffs. The loser will face the winner of the matchup between the ninth and tenth seeds, and the winner of that game will earn the No. 8 seed.
That means that the seventh and eighth seeds need to win just one of two contests, while the ninth and tenth seeds need to win two in a row.
Let’s dive into three of my favorite bets for the first round of the Play-In Tournament.
Best Bets for the First Round of the 2024 NBA Play-In Tournament
76ers (-4.5) vs. Heat (-110; DraftKings)
The Heat are like Michael Myers.
Every time you think you’ve killed them off, they pop up to scare you one more time.
Josh Hart told reporters that Jimmy Butler does “side quests” before shifting to the main storyline in April, and I’m not sure a more perfect quote has ever existed.
Betting against Butler and the Heat is a bit scary, but the 76ers are simply the better team. They got Joel Embiid back in the lineup recently, and he looks like he’s ready to go. He’s played in five of the team’s past seven games, and he’s led the team to five victories. He was pretty darn good statistically as well, averaging 30.4 points, 9.2 rebounds, and 5.2 assists in 30.5 minutes per game. Embiid topped out at just under 36 minutes in his return to the lineup, so he seems ready to go for the playoffs.
When Embiid has been in the lineup for Philly this season, they’ve been one of the best teams in the East. They racked up a 31-8 record, which puts them on pace for a 65-win season over a full 82 games.
Before Embiid’s first extended absence – which came on Christmas – the 76ers were No. 1 in the league in Net Rating. They were second in offensive efficiency and third on defense, which is an excellent combination. The team’s most-used five-man lineup this season – Embiid, Tyrese Maxey, Tobias Harris, De’Anthony Melton, and Nic Batum – posted an absurd +33.2 Net Rating.
There’s a reason Embiid was the runaway MVP favorite before missing time with an injury. With him, the 76ers were elite. Without him, they were below-average. Now that he’s back, I expect the 76ers to take care of business against a flawed Heat squad.
In fact, I think you can make a case for the East at +900 to win the Eastern Conference.
Pelicans (pk) vs. Lakers (-105; Caesars)
How much do you value experience? That’s the question you have to ask yourself with both of the matchups in the Western Conference. The Lakers will travel to New Orleans to take on the Pelicans, while the Warriors will take on the Kings.
By most objective measures, the younger teams have been the better teams. However, the gap between the Warriors and Kings narrowed as the season progressed. The Kings limped to the finish line and are missing two key players in Kevin Huerter and Malik Monk, so I think they’re deserved home underdogs vs. the Warriors.
But the Pelicans and Lakers? That’s a different story.
The Pelicans were seventh in Net Rating after the All-Star break, while the Lakers were 14th. The Lakers did manage to win a head-to-head matchup vs. the Pelicans in the final game of the year, but LA took that game far more seriously. LeBron James and D’Angelo Russell both played 38 minutes, while no one on the Pelicans played more than 34.
The big development is the health of Anthony Davis. He went down with an injury near the end of that contest, so he could be operating at less than 100%. The early reports are promising, but being available and being effective are not the same year. It was just three years ago when Davis tried to suit up in a must-win playoff game vs. the Suns and was forced to leave after less than six minutes.
I think the Pels deserve to be favored in this matchup, but the line is trending in the other direction. They’re down to a pick’em at Caesars, and there’s a chance they’re underdogs by the time this game tips off.
Bulls (-3.0) vs. Hawks (-110; FanDuel)
If you asked me about the two most disappointing Eastern Conference teams in recent years, I’d probably settle on the Bulls and Hawks. Both teams have plenty of talent, yet they’ve struggled to make any real waves.
Still, the Bulls at least have an excuse. Lonzo Ball hasn’t played in played in more than two years, while Zach LaVine went down with a season-ending injury this season. The Hawks have had pretty good health; they just haven’t been very good.
That’s reflected in their ATS numbers. They were the worst team in the league at covering the spread this season, and it wasn’t particularly close. They were just 29-53 – a 35.4% clip – and no other team was below 41.5%. They were equally disappointing at home and on the road, covering just 35.0% of the time away from Atlanta.
I see no reason why things would change on Wednesday. The Hawks limped to the finish line, ending the regular season on a six-game losing streak. The Bulls won two of their last three, with the exception being a hard-fought overtime loss to the Knicks on Sunday.
Chicago is simply the better team, and they’re playing better currently. I like them up to -4.0.
