MLB Futures Bets to Target for the 2024 Season
The MLB regular season officially kicked off with a two-game series in South Korea, but things begin in earnest this week. All 30 teams are scheduled to be in action for Opening Day, which takes place on Thursday, March 28.
The start of a new season brings the opportunity to attack a new betting market. MLB futures provide some solid upside from an odds perspective, but they do tie up your bankroll for the duration of the season. Still, that’s a trade-off that makes sense when you can find an edge to exploit.
Let’s dive into a few of my favorite season-long MLB futures begs to target for the 2024 season, including win totals, division and World Series champs, along with player props.
MLB Win Total Futures Bets for 2024
Milwaukee Brewers Over 76.5 wins (-110; BetMGM)
This number has risen a bit since opening, and it’s a preferred target using the projection systems. FanGraphs has the Brewers projected for 80 wins, while PECOTA has them at 78.5.
The reason for the gap between the projections and the odds is that Milwaukee doesn’t stand out in traditional ways. Their starting pitching is going to be worse than last year after trading away Corbin Burnes, while their offense was 24th in wRC+ in 2023. That’s not an exciting combination.
However, the Brewers are elite in two areas: defense and the bullpen. Their 3.40 bullpen ERA was second in the league last season, trailing only the Yankees, and they were also No. 2 in defensive runs saved (DRS). They were above average defensively at every position but one (left field), and they should only improve with Jackson Chourio joining the fray in 2024.
The Brewers’ rotation provides a lot of question marks, but they’re not going to be asked to pitch deep into games. Their bullpen will do more of the heavy lifting, and with an excellent defense behind them, the starters should be able to survive.
Chourio should also help the team offensively after feasting on minor league pitching last year, while adding Rhys Hoskins and Gary Sanchez gives the team more pop. There’s enough here that this team should finish around .500 and potentially contend for the NL Central crown.
Los Angeles Dodgers Under 103.5 wins (-115; FanDuel)
The Dodgers are the driving force in baseball at the moment. They were the story of the offseason, adding Shohei Ohtani on a 10-year, $700M contract and splurging an additional $325M on Yoshinobu Yamamoto. That was enough to make Yamamoto the highest-paid pitcher in history before ever throwing a single pitch in the MLB.
Add that to the Dodgers' already elite core — which includes guys like Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and Clayton Kershaw — and this team feels nearly unbeatable heading into the year. They have the highest win total over/under at 103.5 games, and their World Series odds are an impossibly-small +300.
That said, this is still baseball. Injuries happen, and there’s plenty of uncertainty when trying to hit a round ball with a cylindrical bat. Add in the uncertainty surrounding Ohtani at the moment and it wouldn’t be a shock to see them finish below 104 wins.
The Dodgers have been a mainstay in the 100-win club recently, doing it six times in the past seven full MLB seasons. However, they had just 100 wins last year, and their division figures to be very competitive once again. The Diamondbacks, Padres and Giants all have playoff aspirations, so only the Rockies figure to be doormats.
The Dodgers split their first two games of the year, and they can only afford 58 losses if they’re going to win 104 games. That’s already one in the loss column with 160 games left to go. They’ll essentially need to win 65% of their remaining contests, which is easier said than done. I’m happy to grab the under on this big number.
Miami Marlins Over 77.5 wins (-102; FanDuel)
- To Make Playoffs (+300; Caesars)
The sportsbooks clearly don’t believe in the Marlins after last year’s 84-win campaign, but I do. I see no reason why they can’t improve on last year’s success and push for a spot in the expanded postseason.
The Marlins’ strength is their starting rotation. Even without Sandy Alcantara, they boast a collection of talented young starters that would be the envy of every GM in baseball. It starts with Jesus Luzardo, who emerged as a legit top-of-the-rotation stud last year. He pitched to a 3.58 ERA and 3.55 FIP last season while striking out more than 10.5 batters per nine innings. It’s the type of production that was always expected from Luzardo, who was once considered a top-five prospect in all of baseball.
After Luzardo, A.J. Puk and Trevor Rogers also have the stuff to be frontline starters. Puk has transitioned from the bullpen to the starting rotation, and the early returns have been promising: He owns a 1.32 ERA and 1.25 FIP across 14 Spring Training innings. Rogers was the Rookie of the Year runner-up in 2021 and has also sparkled this spring.
Mar 1, 2024; Clearwater, Florida, USA; Miami Marlins pitcher Jesus Luzardo (44) throws a pitch in the first inning of the spring training game against the Philadelphia Phillies at BayCare Ballpark. Mandatory Credit: Jonathan Dyer-USA TODAY Sports
Things only get better from there. Eury Perez is considered one of the top pitching prospects in baseball, and he posted a 3.15 ERA is a 20-year-old rookie in 2023. Edward Cabrera and Braxton Garrett have also shown plenty of potential. All three of those players are currently injured, but none is currently expected to miss significant time.
It would not shock me if the Marlins had the best pitching staff in all of baseball shortly, and they could approach top-five status in 2024. The offense has made some strides in recent seasons, finishing close to a league-average squad last year. If they can maintain that level of production at the plate, the pitching staff has the potential to push this team to a very successful campaign.
2024 MLB Team Futures Bets
Atlanta Braves to Win World Series (+600; Caesars)
The Dodgers being massive favorites to hoist the Commissioner's Trophy has pushed down the odds for the rest of the league. That’s great news for bettors.
While the Dodgers might be the best team in baseball, it’s far from a lock that they’ll win the World Series. Look no further than their recent history: They’ve won once in the past 11 years despite reaching the playoffs each season. There’s a big difference between being the best team in the league over a 162-game sample and winning a seven-game series.
As talented as the Dodgers are, I would argue the Braves are just as good. Their offense features an All Star-caliber hitter at nearly every position, and they were first in wRC+ last year. Their pitching staff features arguably the best starter in the league in Spencer Strider, while Max Fried, Charlie Morton and Chris Sale all have ace potential.
PECOTA gives the Braves roughly an 18% chance of winning the World Series, just slightly lower than the Dodgers’ mark of 20.8%. Fangraphs is actually higher on the Braves than the Dodgers, giving Atlanta a 25.5% chance of winning it all.
Even if we use the more bearish figure, +600 still represents a solid value. It translates to an implied probability of just 14.3%, so I’m happy to grab the Braves at that number. Atlanta has decreased to closer to +450 across most of the industry, so lock in this number with Caesars while you still can.
Kansas City Royals to Win AL Central (+950; FanDuel)
The AL Central is the red-headed stepchild of the MLB. They lack an elite team, so you typically don’t need to do much to win the division. The Twins won the division with just 87 wins last year, and that figure probably won’t be much higher in 2024.
The Twins and Guardians are expected to contend for the division crown, but I like the Royals as a sleeper. While most of the division was inactive during the offseason, Kansas City brought in Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha to bolster their rotation. Both pitchers had an ERA in the mid-threes last year, so they figure to give the squad some solid innings.
Cole Ragans also emerged as a potential ace after being acquired from the Rangers in the Aroldis Chapman trade. Ragans pitched to an elite 2.64 ERA across 12 starts with the Royals, racking up 11.2 strikeouts per nine innings in the process. His advanced metrics were just as good, so there’s hope that he can duplicate his success in 2024.
Offensively, the team is centered around veteran catcher Salvador Perez and a host of prospects. Bobby Witt Jr. has already made the leap to superstardom, while guys like Vinnie Pasquantino, M.J. Melendez and Nick Pratto are breakout candidates.
That gives the team a lot of paths to relevance in the weakest division in baseball. Their current win total is set at around 74.5, so they wouldn’t need a huge push to get above .500. If they can do that, they’ll have a chance to contend for the AL Central crown.
MLB Player Prop Futures Bet
Yordan Alvarez Most Regular-Season Homers (+1400; BetMGM)
It’s kind of shocking that Alvarez has yet to hit 40 homers in a season. He’s established himself as one of the best hitters in baseball over the past few years, but he’s yet to have that truly monster season. I’m a believer that 2024 could be it.
For starters, Alvarez is an absolute Statcast god. You name a category, and Alvarez excels at it. Hard hit rate? 96th percentile. Barrel rate? 99th percentile. Max exit velocity? 99th percentile. Add it all up, and his expected slugging percentage of .626 ranked fourth in baseball. Only Aaron Judge, Ohtani and Ronald Acuna Jr. were better.
The biggest issue for Alvarez has been health. He played in just 114 games last year, yet he still managed 31 bombs. If he can get to 150 this season, 40 homers should be a lock and 50 homers is possible.
Alvarez is priced fairly at +900 on Caesars, so I’m grabbing the +1400 on BetMGM every day of the week.
Bobby Witt Jr. American League MVP (+1800; FanDuel)
The Royals were so bad last year that I don’t think most people realize just how good Witt was. He racked up 30 homers and 49 stolen bases while leading the league with 11 triples. He finished seventh in the MVP voting at just 23 years old, despite playing for a team that won just 56 games.
Not only should the Royals be better this season, but Witt should be better too. He had just a .319 OBP last season after sitting at better than .360 in the minors. He did show some progression in both his walk and strikeout rates last year, so he should take another step forward in 2024.
The AL MVP race also feels a bit more wide-open. Ohtani now resides in the National League, while Judge is already dealing with injuries. Witt will still have to contend with some studs, but another 30-homer, 50-steal season should keep him on the radar. If the Royals are better than expected, Witt’s going to get plenty of love.
