New Orleans Saints vs. Las Vegas Raiders Picks, Odds, Predictions, and Player Props for Week 3

We’re just two weeks into the season, but we’re down to just a handful of undefeated teams. Most of them are teams you’d expect, including the Seahawks, 49ers, Eagles, Bills, Bengals and Chiefs. Even the Vikings aren’t a huge surprise. But the Raiders? I don’t think anyone expected them to be 2-0. 

They opened the year with a dominant win over the Dolphins, and they followed that up with an impressive showing vs. the Chargers. They’re still underdogs to make the playoffs, but if they can pick up a win in Week 3, they’ll be in pretty good shape: Roughly 75% of NFL teams make the playoffs after starting 3-0, including more than 86% since moving to the 14-team format.

They’ll head on the road this week to take on the Saints, who have been impressive in their own right. They’ve had two tough contests to start the year, but they managed to beat the Ravens and take the Lions to overtime. Tyler Shough currently leads the league in passing yards, and they’re 12th in EPA per play.

Can the Raiders pick up their third win, or will the Saints improve to 2-1? Let’s dive in.

New Orleans Saints vs. Las Vegas Raiders Betting Odds For Week 3

• Spread: Saints -3.0 (-115, FanDuel)
• Moneyline: Saints -172; Raiders +154
• Game Total: 43.5

Break up the Raiders. Not only have they won back-to-back games, but they’ve done so pretty convincingly. They dismantled the Dolphins in Week 1, and they followed that up with a 12-point road victory over the Chargers. The Chargers don’t exactly have an elite home-field advantage—there seemed to be more Raiders fans in the building on Sunday—but it was an impressive showing nonetheless.

The Raiders have done this despite not having Brock Bowers for either contest. He had a minor surgical procedure right before the start of the season, but he will reportedly return to practice this week. Head coach Klint Kubiak said that Bowers is “very close” to returning, and there’s a good chance that happens vs. the Saints.

The Raiders’ offense has survived without Bowers, but they desperately need him. They have one of the weakest groups of pass-catchers in football, and Bowers should become an instant alpha for Kirk Cousins. With Bowers and Ashton Jeanty, the Raiders will at least have two blue-chip prospects on that side of the ball.

The defense has been the strength for the Raiders through two weeks. They rank ninth in yards allowed and fifth in points, and they’re first in the league in EPA per play defensively.

The Raiders’ defense will face arguably their toughest test this week. That’s weird to say a week after playing the Chargers, but the Saints’ offense has been far better than L.A.’s through two weeks. They’re 11th in EPA per play overall, and they rank in the top 13 on the ground and through the air.

Like with the Raiders, it’s hard to get a feel for how “real” the Saints’ production has been. They faced a decimated Detroit secondary in Week 1, while the Ravens’ defense was merely average last season. Even so, the Saints fell into big holes in both contests before making a comeback late.

Ultimately, we’ll have better answers about both of these teams after Week 3. 

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Prediction & Pick For Saints vs. Raiders Week 3 Matchup

• The Pick: Raiders +3.0 (+102; DraftKings)

I was bullish on the Saints entering the season, and they’ve covered in two straight games against superior opponents. I still like their chances of winning a wide-open NFC South, and picking up a win vs. the Raiders would certainly help.

That said, covering as an underdog and a favorite are two different animals. There’s no real potential for a late backdoor cover in this spot for New Orleans; they simply have to be the better team. Shough is an elite 7-1 ATS as an underdog for his career, but he’s only 2-1 as a favorite.

If I can get the Raiders at +3.5, that’s the side I’d lean toward. I still like the Raiders at an unjuiced +3.0, but this isn’t a game where I have a ton of conviction. 

Best Player Prop Bet For Steelers vs. Bengals 

Ashton Jeanty Over 20.5 Receiving Yards (-116; DraftKings)

The big question for Jeanty is how much usage Bowers will siphon away from him. He’s practiced in full so far this week, and it seems likely that he returns to the lineup on Sunday.

Still, Jeanty has some usage to spare as a receiver. He’s been one of the most active pass-catchers out of the backfield through the first two weeks. Jeanty has posted a 23% target share, trailing only Bijan Robinson at the position, and he’s been targeted on 30% of his routes run.

Jeanty only managed four catches for 15 yards last week, but he still saw seven targets. He should get a handful against the Saints, and this number feels too low. We currently have Jeanty projected for more than 23 receiving yards.