New York Jets vs. Detroit Lions Picks, Odds, Predictions, and Player Props for Week 3

After retooling the roster in the offseason, the New York Jets have shown promise two games into the year, fielding an offense that actually grades out well in most offensive metrics. Detroit, on the other hand, is reeling while searching for answers on defense, desperately trying to mask a secondary that struggles in coverage.

New York Jets vs. Detroit Lions Betting Odds For Week 3

• Spread: Lions -6.5 (-110, DraftKings)
• Moneyline: Lions (-300, BetMGM)
• Game Total: 47.5 (Over -109/Under -112, BetRivers)

Since the start of the regular season, the Detroit Lions have been abysmal on defense, falling to the bottom of the board in defensive DVOA, EPA and success rate. While the front seven has been productive, the secondary has held them back by giving up big gains through the air at an alarming rate.

Even with the Lions playing at a high level on offense, the lack of production they receive from the defense forces them to play in highly volatile contests, lowering the probability of winning. While this style of play works against lesser competition, the Lions' chances of making a run to the Super Bowl will be handicapped until the secondary rounds back into form.

With the Jets quietly ranking in the top-15 in EPA per play, the Lions defense will be unable to hold them out of scoring position, leading to a high-scoring affair.

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Prediction & Pick For New York Jets vs. Detroit Lions Week 3 Matchup

• The Pick: Jets Team Total o20.5 (+102, BetRivers)

While I do acknowledge that I need to temper my expectations two games into the year, it’s tough to ignore how well Geno Smith has played in his second stint with the Jets. For a QB who is most likely a bridge to next year’s star-studded draft class, Smith is making a compelling case to stay around, ranking 15th in EPA per play and eighth in CPOE.

Heading into Week 3, Smith will be able to build on his momentum by taking advantage of a secondary that ranks 28th in defensive dropback success rate. With the Lions back end incapable of holding opposing pass catchers in front of the sticks, the Jets will be able to consistently march down the field and get into scoring position at a high rate.

Not only have the Lions been unable to defend against the pass, but the front seven has also been gashed on the ground, limping into Sunday ranked 31st in defensive rush EPA and 26th in success rate. With Smith stretching out the second level, Breece Hall will be able to generate explosive plays on the ground, leaving the Lions defense in flux.

With the Jets facing minimal resistance at multiple levels of the field, they will be able to light up the scoreboard and clear the over of 20.5. If the Jets team total crosses the key number of 21, then reduce the size of the wager with a stop point at 24.

To help diversify risk, place a separate wager on the Jets to cover the spread should they climb back up to a flat +7 or higher before kickoff.

Best Player Prop Bet For New York Jets vs. Detroit Lions

Geno Smith - o218.5 Passing Yards (-115, bet365)

The emergence of Adonai Mitchell has played a major role in Smith’s successful start to the year, giving his QB another reliable pass catcher while pulling defensive attention away from Garrett Wilson. When forced to stretch out, the width of Smith’s passing lanes will widen, improving the quality of his throws.

The Lions' inability to collapse the pocket with just the defensive line will also reduce the amount of havoc in Smith’s throws, ranking near dead last in pressure rate. By trimming down on his total number of turnover-worthy plays, Smith will be able to keep the Jets' drives alive, leading to an uptick in his total number of pass attempts to help clear the over on his passing yardage prop.