NFL Draft Bets: David Bailey And More Draft Props To Bet
Justin Carlucci outlines his three favorite NFL Draft prop bets to target for Thursday night.
The 2026 NFL Draft is finally here, and the noise level is officially off the charts. Rumors and smokescreens are flying around, and in the year 2026, social media makes things even more maddening when it comes to figuring out what to buy and sell.
And who knows, maybe we’ll get some 2023 Will Levis-type ridiculousness before the commish opens up the floor on Thursday.
Instead of chasing every whisper, I’m tightening things up and focusing on just a few NFL draft bets, specifically props. All odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook, and they can move between now and Thursday night, so always double-check the number before you fire.
Three 2026 NFL Draft Bets To Target
No. 3 Pick: David Bailey (+125)
I’m penciling in Fernando Mendoza and Arvell Reese at the top of the board, so we’ll start with a market that’s going to drive a lot of Thursday-night conversation: the No. 3 pick. DraftKings has David Bailey at +125 to go third overall, and I’m comfortable taking that stance at plus money.
No. 3 overall currently belongs to the Arizona Cardinals, and their situation is a big part of why I like Bailey here despite recent reports noting they’re interested in Jeremiyah Love. That’s cute! Technically, I’m sure everyone is, but I’m not buying that they’ll actually take him at No. 3.
The term “generational running back” has been thrown around a bit loosely over the last couple of years when it comes to RB prospects, but you can’t argue the success that lottery picks Saquon Barkley and Jahmyr Gibbs have had in the league. I’m willing to give Ashton Jeanty a rookie-season pass after getting hit in the backfield at a historic rate last year.
But simply, with all due respect to Jacoby Brissett, the Cardinals do not have a long-term quarterback answer in place, and it doesn’t make sense for them to take Love. They can’t pretend the position is solved just because they have a competent veteran on the roster.
That puts them in a really interesting spot. They could stick and take a premium non-QB like Bailey as a foundational piece, or they could pick up the phone to trade back.
NFL insider Jeremy Fowler reported earlier this week on X that “Teams starting to work phones for trades up/down ... Belief in league circles is that Arizona (3), Tennessee (4) both open to moving back.”
Things can definitely get weird at No. 3, but there isn’t a lengthy list of “sure things” in this draft. If someone comes up to No. 3, I do believe it’ll be for Bailey or Love—and likely the former. Bailey was an animal in college. According to ESPN, he recorded 154 pressures in 48 career games.
Many tout Bailey as the best pass-rushing prospect in this class. Edge is a position that is always in demand and holds immense value across the league. Hey, Monti Ossenfort, start rebuilding this thing from the ground up—and that’s in the trenches with Bailey.
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Rams First Drafted Position: Wide Receiver (-105)
These odds are more than fair when you take a look at the current state of the Rams.
Start with Davante Adams. He’ll be 34 before the season is over and is set to be an unrestricted free agent in 2027. Father Time catches up to everyone, even when you’re talking about a player this good.
Then there’s the delicate Puka Nacua situation. There’s certainly much unknown here, but multiple reports—including Sports Illustrated—have noted that he attended the Rams’ offseason program following a stint in rehab.
Yes, there are Jordan Whittington and Konata Mumpfield truthers out there, and those guys have flashed.
But if you put yourself in Sean McVay’s shoes, it’s hard not to imagine him salivating over the chance to add another high-end receiver right now. You’re talking about an offense that’s already shown it can fully unlock stars due to his brilliance, and the Rams are smack in the middle of the Round 1 receiver wheelhouse.
No. 13 Pick: Makai Lemon (+250)
This prop goes hand-in-hand with our previous pick. Our guy Dwain McFarland’s Rookie Super Model absolutely loves Lemon, giving him an 87 score—the 16th-best grade the model has handed out since 2018.
According to the Super Model, Lemon actually earned more targets 20-plus yards downfield than some of the other headliners in this class, including Carnell Tate and Jordyn Tyson.
Can you imagine the Rams’ offense at full strength with someone like Lemon, who can totally take the top off a defense? I bet McVay can!
According to Fantasy Points, among any quarterback with 200+ dropbacks, Matthew Stafford owned the sixth-highest deep-throw percentage in the NFL. Sounds like a perfect match to me.
On the film side, Ian Hartitz arrived at the same conclusion in his Makai Lemon scouting report, “Not Your Grandad’s Slot Receiver.” Lemon’s competitiveness at the catch point, after-the-catch juice, and ability to win against different coverages all show up on tape.
Then you’ve got the mock-draft layer. Kody Malstrom’s latest NFL mock draft has Lemon going to the Rams at No. 13, and I love that we agree on this one. Taking Lemon at No. 13 is a win-now pick and will also set the Rams up for the future at wide receiver.
Good luck on Thursday, and enjoy the draft!
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