NFL Spread Picks for Week 10: Why We Like the Lions to Cover vs. the Patriots

After taking care of business against Miami, the Detroit Lions travel to Germany to battle it out against the New England Patriots, with the opportunity to leap up to first in the NFC North. Later in the night, we turn our attention toward the San Francisco 49ers, with Brock Purdy in a great position to strengthen his claim for the MVP award by torching the Dallas Cowboys' secondary.

NFL Spread Picks for Week 10

Detroit Lions (-2.5) vs. New England Patriots (-115, FanDuel)

In a daunting sandwich spot, the Detroit Lions were able to brush aside regression and skate past the Miami Dolphins 19-9. While the quality of the opposing offense was nothing to hang a hat on, the Lions have steadily improved on defense the past few weeks, climbing to 17th in weighted EPA allowed per play while the front seven hovers in the top 10 in rush success rate.

Speaking of rush success rate, the Patriots will potentially turn toward Corey Kiner while Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson are expected to sit out. With Kiner unable to pull Detroit’s LBs to the box, the Lions will be able to stretch out in coverage, making it easier for the back end to smother Drake Maye’s passing lanes at multiple levels of the field.

When held to an early out, the Patriots will struggle to get the ball back in Maye’s hands in quick order while trying to bottle up an offense that resides near the top of the board in DVOA. The Lions' methodical drives will also help keep the clock moving, chipping away at New England’s total number of possessions on offense. Back Detroit to cover the spread at -2.5 with a stop point at the key number of -3.

Carolina Panthers (+1.5) vs. New Orleans Saints (-110, Fanatics)

After struggling to find his footing earlier in his career, Bryce Young has been able to round back into form this season, ranking above league average in QB EPA per play and in CPOE. While Young has been overly reliant on conservative throws to stay ahead of the sticks, he has done a phenomenal job taking care of the ball, leading the position in turnover-worthy play percentage.

In a divisional matchup against the New Orleans Saints, Young will be able to build on his momentum by picking apart a secondary that struggles in coverage, per its bottom-ten mark in dropback EPA allowed per play. With New Orleans struggling to hold Young behind the line to gain, the Panthers will be able to get into scoring position at a higher rate and create a scoring pace too fast for the Saints to keep up with.

Seattle Seahawks (-3.5) vs. Las Vegas Raiders (-110, Fanatics)

After a hot start to the year, the Las Vegas Raiders have harshly regressed on defense, plummeting to 31st in EPA allowed per play and success rate. Even with the offense playing at a competitive level, the lack of production the team receives from the defense forces the Raiders to play in highly volatile contests, making it difficult to pull away on the scoreboard.

While the Raiders have struggled to defend every level of the field, the Seattle Seahawks have been firing on all cylinders, entering Week 10 ranked second in defensive DVOA. With the defense creating hard stops at a high rate, Drew Lock will be able to take advantage of the generous field position his defense provides, quickly putting up points on the board.

San Francisco 49ers (-4) vs. Dallas Cowboys (-110, BetMGM)

Even with the offense ravaged by injuries, Brock Purdy has been able to keep the San Francisco 49ers afloat while ranking first in success rate. With Purdy under center, the 49ers' offense has been in a tier of its own this season, leading the league in EPA per play while ranking second in DVOA.

Heading into Sunday’s contest against the Dallas Cowboys, Purdy will be able to continue to air it out against a secondary that resides near the bottom of the board in coverage grade. When the Cowboys' LBs are forced to drop back in coverage, Christian McCaffrey will have more room to work with at the second level, increasing his chances of rattling off an explosive run to keep the 49ers consistently ahead of the sticks.

If San Francisco steams up to -4.5 before kickoff, bypass the spread and place the 49ers in a two-team moneyline parlay with the Jacksonville Jaguars instead.