Week 10 Best Bets: Lions, Chargers, & More NFL Picks

It was a bad week to be an underdog. The favorites absolutely dominated in the NFL last week, posting a record of 14-1 straight up and 11-3-1 against the spread. The Patriots were the only favorite that didn’t record a victory, as they were pretty thoroughly demolished by the Packers.

Any time the favorites do that well, it’s probably not going to be a great week for me personally. I’m an underdog bettor at heart. I tend to look to fade “overvalued” teams rather than find “undervalued” ones, which means I’m often betting underdogs.

Unsurprisingly, it resulted in a losing week for me last week. Fortunately, we did at least manage to win two of our five picks. I was on the Bills and Seahawks, who both managed to cruise to pretty easy victories.

Things did not go nearly as well for the Panthers, Eagles, or Commanders. Those three teams were all competitive, but they were unable to keep it within the number. It brings our record to 22-22-1 for the year, so after a strong start to the year, we’re back to .500. We need to start stringing some wins together ASAP.

We’re back to the drawing board for NFL Week 10. We’ve got four teams on bye this week (Bears, Broncos, Eagles, & Buccaneers), and there will be an overseas game in Munich. This results in a slightly smaller main slate than in previous weeks, but there are still plenty of opportunities to look for value.

Let’s dive into my five favorite selections for NFL Week 10.

NFL Week 10 Best Bets

Detroit Lions (-2.5) vs. New England Patriots (Munich)

Best Odds: -120; FanDuel
Play To: -2.5 (-120) or -3.0 (-105)

One of the defining stories of this season has been the domination of the NFC North. Every team in the division has at least six wins, and they have a 25-9 record overall. If you remove games they’ve played against each other, they’re a sparkling 19-5 against all other opponents. Unsurprisingly, they’ve also covered the spread at a solid clip in those matchups, going 14-9-1 (+16.2% ROI).

We just saw an NFC North opponent outclass the Patriots last week, and I expect the Lions to do the same in Munich. Detroit remains an elite offensive unit, and their defense is clearly improving. They’ve allowed 17 points or fewer in three straight games, and they’ve won all of them. Getting back Brian Branch at safety looks like a game-changing addition, and he greatly improves the Lions’ defense outlook moving forward.

The Patriots have also failed to prove they can hang with the better teams in the league. They’re currently 5-4, but three of their wins are against the Raiders, Jets, and Dolphins. They’re just 2-4 against teams with winning records, with an average margin of victory of -6.0 in that sample.

This line is already up to -3.0 at most locations, so I’m grabbing -2.5 while I can.

Minnesota Vikings (+3.0) at Green Bay Packers

Best Odds: -104; Caesars
Play To: (-112)

Sticking with the NFC North, this matchup between the Vikings and Packers feels like it could have huge playoff implications. Even if the NFC North and West grab all of the available Wild Card spots, only five of the Vikings, Packers, Lions, Bears, 49ers, Rams, and Seahawks can make the playoffs. It means two good teams are going to be on the outside looking in, so these head-to-head matchups could play a huge role in who makes the playoffs and who gets left out.

The Vikings already managed to beat the Packers once this season, but that was before the Packers hit their recent groove. It was also one of the flukier results of the year, with the Packers outgaining the Vikings by 180 yards.

The public unsurprisingly likes the Packers in the rematch, but I think three points is simply too much to give Minnesota. We know how dominant their defense is. Even in their recent two-game losing streak, they’ve still managed to hold the Lions and Bills to 19 and 23 points, respectively. Those are two of the best offenses in the league, so there’s no reason they can’t do it again vs. the Packers.

The big question is what can Kirk Cousins give this team on offense? If he can make them even league average on that side of the ball, it would represent a massive improvement. They’re currently 31st in EPA per play, but Cousins is seventh at quarterback in terms of adjusted EPA per play. He should give them a sizable lift, especially with the team still possessing quality playmakers like Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison.

Los Angeles Chargers (+4.5) at Baltimore Ravens

Best Odds: -110; FanDuel
Play To: (-118)

The Chargers' disastrous season continues. They’re currently sitting at 0-8, so they could be looking at a complete overhaul this offseason. Even Jim Harbaugh and Justin Herbert – who felt like franchise stalwarts at the start of the year – could find themselves elsewhere. Literally everything possible has gone wrong, and the team has already gone the under on their preseason win total. That’s basically impossible in just nine weeks!

Even more impressive, the team is still looking for their first cover. Every other team in the league has at least one win, and all but two others have at least three. Yet the Chargers are a paltry 0-7-1.

So, why back them this week? It has more to do with the Ravens. Jacoby Brissett will make his first start with the team, but that’s still a clear downgrade from Lamar Jackson. Since the start of last year, the Ravens are just 3-5 ATS in games started by someone other than Jackson. If you also remove Tyler Huntley, they’re 0-3 ATS.

The Chargers also haven’t been a disaster on defense this season. They’re 18th in EPA per play, including No. 13 vs. the run. If they can slow down Derrick Henry, I don’t expect the Ravens to hang a ton of points on the scoreboard. The Chargers probably won’t do a ton of scoring either, but in an expected low-scoring game, I’ll gladly take the 4.5 points.

Los Angeles Rams (-9.5) at Arizona Cardinals

Best Odds: -108; BetMGM
Play To: -120

The Rams have managed to win three straight games, but they suffered a big blow in Week 9. Puka Nacua went down with a trio of injuries, and he’s expected to miss the next handful of weeks. They were already without Davante Adams, so it leaves them pretty thin on offense.

While that might be a concern in future weeks, it shouldn’t matter too much vs. the Cardinals. They’re 30th in defensive EPA per play this season, so the Rams should still be able to move the ball. Whether it’s the RBs, the TEs, or an unexpected receiver, Matthew Stafford should find a way to keep the offense competitive.

On the other hand, I see no chance for Carson Beck in his first career start. Not only is he going against Myles Garrett – who had three sacks in his return last week – but he’s going to have to do it without Michael Wilson. The team already traded away Marvin Harrison Jr., leaving the cupboard extremely bare at receiver. Add in an injury to Jeremiyah Love, and there is minimal supporting talent for Beck to work with.

Add in the fact that the Rams already lost to the Cardinals earlier this season, and they should be extremely focused on taking care of business. I’m fine with laying anything in the single digits.

Pittsburgh Steelers (+3.5) at Cincinnati Bengals

Best Odds: -110; FanDuel
Play To: -115

The Steelers and Bengals will renew one of the league’s best rivalries on Sunday Night Football in Week 10. Both enter this contest in good shape for the playoffs, with each boasting a 6-2 record.

While the Bengals have the star power, the Steelers are the more complete team. They’re seventh in EPA per play defensively, while their offense has improved with Mike McCarthy taking over for Mike Tomlin. Specifically, Jaylen Warren has emerged as a major threat out of the backfield, and that could pay big dividends vs. the Bengals. They’re 27th in EPA per rush defensively, and Warren had 176 yards from scrimmage in their first matchup this season.

The Steelers ultimately won that game by three points at home, and I expect another close affair in Cincinnati. Getting the hook feels like a big deal here.

Published Nov 13, 2026, 10:28 AM ETUpdated Nov 13, 2026, 10:28 AM ET