NFL Player Props & Anytime TD Picks For Week 10: Matthew Golden Rolls On

We’ve made it to Week 10, the trade drama has finally settled down and I still have no idea what the Colts are doing.

Fortunately, we don’t need to understand every front-office decision to find a few bets. We need opportunities, favorable matchups and preferably no tight ends stealing touchdowns from our running backs on quarterback sneaks.

NFL Player Props For Week 10

Matthew Golden Over 69.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Brian Flores is a madman. You know the heat is coming.

The important question is what Jordan Love does when that heat actually gets home, and that’s where Matthew Golden’s numbers get interesting.

Golden and Christian Watson have nearly identical target shares when Love has been blitzed this season. But a blitz and actual pressure aren’t the same thing. When Love has been pressured, Golden has separated himself.

On those plays, Golden owns a 48% air-yards share compared with Watson’s 29%. His target share is 29%, while Watson sits at 17%.

Then there’s the first-read rate: a massive 42% for Golden, roughly 20 percentage points higher than Watson.

That’s not a small difference.

The actual receiving-yardage gap hasn’t been enormous, but Golden has accumulated 223 more air yards than Watson with Love under pressure. The opportunity has been there, even when every downfield chance hasn’t turned into production.

None of that guarantees Minnesota’s pressure results in a big Golden game. But if Flores is going to make Love uncomfortable, I want the receiver Love has consistently looked toward in those situations.

Give me Golden to clear 69.5.

RELATED: Fantasy Life's NFL Betting Game Model provides bettors with projected spreads, totals and projected win percentage for the home team to help bettors accurately handicap all NFL games.

Christian McCaffrey Over 33.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Keep it simple, student.

San Francisco: good. Dallas defense: bad.

We can dig a little deeper than that, but we don’t need to make this complicated.

Without Mike Evans on the field this season, Christian McCaffrey owns a 24% target share. That’s roughly a 10-percentage-point increase compared with his involvement when Evans has played.

A running back commanding nearly a quarter of the targets? Yes, I’m interested and not surprised; after all, it’s CMC we’re talking about.

George Kittle deserves an honorable mention here, too. His target share without Evans sits at a massive 30%. San Francisco’s remaining stars are getting plenty of attention, and McCaffrey doesn’t need a monster receiving performance to clear this line.

The hope is that Dak Prescott and the Dallas offense do enough to keep the game competitive. We’d rather not spend the second half watching San Francisco drain the clock because the Cowboys forgot to show up.

If Dallas applies some pressure on the scoreboard, we could see fireworks from the 49ers’ high-usage guys.

At 33.5 receiving yards, McCaffrey is my preferred play.

Jonathan Taylor Over 69.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

The drama is finally over, and it’s only Week 10.

Why keep limiting Taylor’s usage now? Save that for the final week or two.

Then again, I have no idea why Indianapolis has done much of anything over the last 30 days. Trying to follow the plan has been an exercise in frustration.

For this bet, I’m projecting Jonathan Taylor’s workload to climb back up. That’s the key assumption, and Miami offers a friendly landing spot if it happens.

The Dolphins rank 28th in defensive EPA per play.

Yes, the Colts have liquidated some of their skill-position talent. Daniel Jones is still there, though, and the offense doesn’tneed to become a juggernaut for Taylor to reach 70 rushing yards.

A reasonable workload against a vulnerable defense can get us there. I’m backing the talent and betting on a usage rebound.

Anytime TD Picks

Jakobi Meyers Anytime Touchdown (+210)

Was Cam Ward’s breakout for real?

Hopefully, because a competitive Tennessee offense would make this game a lot more interesting for Jacksonville’s skill players.

Meyers already has the scoring-area role we want. He leads Jaguars wide receivers in snap percentage inside the 10-yard line this season.

That doesn’t guarantee a target, but it keeps him involved when Jacksonville gets close. At +210, that’s a useful starting point.

The Titans have a glimmer of hope if Ward is the answer, plus four first-round picks over the next two years. There’s something to look forward to.

Unfortunately for their defense, those future picks can’t cover anybody this Sunday.

This unit looks capable of allowing 20-30 points per game down the stretch, creating a potential fantasy goldmine for opponents. Meyers gives us a way to attack that matchup without needing him to dominate Jacksonville’s overall target distribution.

Get close, keep him on the field and give him a chance.

Blake Corum Anytime Touchdown (+110)

It’s nice to finally see Blake Corum’s role develop. Better late than never, I guess.

Unless you’ve been living under a rock—and these days, I don’t blame you—the Rams are without Puka Nacua and Davante Adams.

It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to think Los Angeles might lean more heavily on the running game. Luckily, I am not a rocket scientist.

Corum’s recent goal-line involvement makes this more than a bet on a vague shift in offensive philosophy. Across the last three weeks, Kyren Williams has played just two more snaps than Corum inside the 5-yard line.

Williams remains part of the equation, obviously. But Corum doesn’t need to take over the backfield, and he can still dash to the end zone on an explosive play.

With both star receivers unavailable, I’ll take plus money on his developing role.

Zach Charbonnet Anytime Touchdown (+120)

Find someone who loves you the way Seattle loves Charbs.

I keep circling back to his goal-line usage last season. The Seahawks preferred him in those situations over Kenneth Walker, of all people.

That history matters because it shows how comfortable Seattle has been asking Zach Charbonnet to finish drives. We don’t need him to be the most explosive runner on the roster or dominate touches between the 20s.

We need the carries that count.

At +120, I’m willing to go back to that trust near the goal line. Just, please, no more AJ Barner tush pushes. Let the running back have this one.

Good luck!