Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cincinnati Bengals Picks, Odds, Predictions, and Player Props for Week 3

Is it finally the Bengals’ year? They’ve cruised past the Buccaneers and Texans in the first two weeks, winning by a combined score of 53-33. The actual victories haven’t felt quite that dominant, but there are definitely reasons for optimism in Cincinnati. Joe Burrow is healthy (for now), and the defense looks significantly improved after not being able to stop a nosebleed in previous years.

On the other side, the Steelers have some significant question marks. They managed to escape with a win vs. the Falcons in Week 1, thanks to a tremendous defensive play by T.J. Watt. But their offense looked completely toothless in Week 2 vs. the Patriots. If they can’t show some improvement on that side of the ball moving forward, it’s going to be tough for this team to win games consistently. Of course, this is the Steelers we’re talking about. They tend to perform best when everyone doubts them.

Will the Bengals improve to 3-0, or can the Steelers pull off the upset? Let’s dive in. 

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cincinnati Bengals Betting Odds For Week 3

• Spread: Bengals -3.5 (-108, FanDuel)
• Moneyline: Bengals -185; Steelers +160
• Game Total: 42.5

While the Bengals are 2-0, it’s important to look at the games with just a bit of context. In Week 1, they were the clear beneficiaries of good fumble luck. Tampa Bay put four balls on the ground, and the Bengals recovered all of them. It would’ve been a bad sign if they didn’t win that game.

In Week 2, the Bengals got to face a Texans squad that was missing arguably their three best receivers. Nico Collins, Jayden Higgins and Tank Dell were all sidelined, yet C.J. Stroud still managed to throw for 355 yards. He needed 55 attempts to get there, but the Bengals’ defense didn’t dominate nearly as much as you’d expect for a team that held their opponent to just six points.

Offensively, there are minimal concerns for the Bengals. Burrow is one of the best QBs in football, while Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are nearly unstoppable as a duo. The only real question is if the Bengals can keep Burrow upright: The Texans had five sacks in Week 2.

That could be an issue vs. the Steelers. Pittsburgh clearly has some problems, but the pass rush isn’t one of them. They’ve generated seven sacks through the first two weeks, with Watt accounting for 3.5 of them. If the Bengals can’t at least slow him down, their offense could struggle a bit more than expected.

On the other hand, it’s hard to have any level of confidence in Pittsburgh’s offense. They have been absolutely horrible, with only the Falcons ranking worse in EPA per play through the first two weeks. Aaron Rodgers is 31st among qualified QBs in EPA + CPOE composite, better than only Jameis Winston and Cooper Rush. That’s not exactly the type of company the four-time MVP is used to keeping.

Unless the offense can start functioning at a much higher level, it’s hard to imagine this being a productive season for the Steelers.

Join Our Newsletter

Trusted by 400,000+ fantasy football players. Get access to Fantasy Life's free award winning newsletter and tools, all in one step.

Email Address

Subscribe

By registering or logging in, you agree to our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy.

Prediction & Pick For Steelers vs. Bengals Week 3 Matchup

• The Pick: Under 42.5 (-108; DraftKings)

This has been a classic “Mike Tomlin” spot for the Steelers. He was one of the best in the business at covering the spread as an underdog. He was 68-37-4 ATS when getting points, good for a +25.3% ROI. The ROI jumped to +36.1% as a home underdog, and a ridiculous +64.7% as a divisional home underdog. He posted an immaculate 11-1-2 ATS record in that spot, so no one was better at getting the most out of his players.

Unfortunately, Tomlin is no longer in town. Apparently, never posting a losing record and getting a dreadful roster to the playoffs most years wasn’t enough. The grass is always greener on the other side, and the Steelers felt it was time to look elsewhere.

Without Tomlin—and with what we’ve seen from Rodgers the past two weeks—I have zero confidence in their ability to cover vs. the Bengals. That said, I also feel the Bengals are overvalued. They’re a “fluky” 2-0, and their offensive line could be an issue vs. the Steelers’ pass rush.

Add it all up, and I’m leaning toward the under. I don’t have 100% confidence in either offensive unit, and points are usually at a premium in divisional matchups.

Best Player Prop Bet For Steelers vs. Bengals 

Chase Brown Over 15.5 Rushing Attempts (-135; BetMGM)

Brown has picked up basically right where he left off last year. He quietly commands one of the largest workloads in football at the running back position. He’s ultimately handled 77% of the snaps and 71% of the carries in the team’s backfield through the first two weeks.

Brown has gotten to at least 16 carries in back-to-back games, and I see no reason why they would change. The Bengals are favored in this matchup, and points are expected to be at a premium. They shouldn’t need to take to the air and play catch-up.