Vikings vs Buccaneers Odds, Predictions, Picks, and Player Props for Week 3
Betting

Vikings vs Buccaneers Odds, Predictions, Picks, and Player Props for Week 3

Justin Carlucci breaks down the matchup between the Vikings and Buccaneers from a betting perspective, including picks, predictions, and a player prop.

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Minnesota heads to Tampa Bay with Kyler Murray expected back under center after missing time following a scary Week 1 concussion. The Buccaneers are coming off a disappointing Week 2 loss to Cleveland, and this is one of the more fascinating games on the slate because both teams want to play very different styles.

Minnesota Vikings vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Odds for Week 3

Spread: Vikings -1.5 (-108)
Moneyline: Vikings -122; Buccaneers +102
Game Total: Over 42.5 (-110), Under 42.5 (-110)

There’s plenty to unpack here.

Through two weeks, neither team has been particularly efficient on offense. Both Minnesota and Tampa Bay rank outside the top 18 in EPA per play, though Murray’s expected return is massive for the Vikings. Carson Wentz filled in admirably to the naked eye, but Minnesota ranks dead last in pass success rate through two games. The offense desperately needs Murray back.

The Vikings have been able to run the ball, though. They rank 11th in rushing success rate and have run at the second-highest rate in football. Tampa Bay has been almost the complete opposite, running the ball at the sixth-lowest rate in the league despite ranking fourth in rushing success rate.

So, both teams have found success on the ground. They just have gone about it in very different ways.

Minnesota could be in line for some positive regression, especially with Murray back. The Buccaneers have allowed the fifth-highest percentage of drives to end in either a touchdown or field goal through two weeks. Minnesota also played a complete clunker in the rain last week, so some of the Vikings’ defensive numbers could be a little skewed.

Still, this matchup puts a lot on Murray’s shoulders.

Prediction & Pick for Vikings vs. Buccaneers Week 3 Matchup

The Pick: Over 42.5 (-110)

I like Tampa Bay getting the point and a half at home.

The biggest matchup question is simple: Can Baker Mayfield handle the Brian Flores blitz?

Flores has blitzed on 73% of defensive plays so far, the highest rate in football by a mile. For comparison, the league average is 31%. We know what Minnesota wants to do defensively. Flores is going to send pressure, create confusion, and force quarterbacks to make quick decisions.

Mayfield has only faced 14 blitz dropbacks through two games, but the early numbers are positive. He has completed 80% of his passes with a 130.0 passer rating and a touchdown against the blitz.

That is encouraging, but it is a very small sample.

Last season, Mayfield was not nearly as good against pressure. His completion percentage against the blitz was eight points below league average, and he posted a 67.0 passer rating. Among quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks against the blitz, he ranked 20th in EPA per dropback.

When Mayfield was not blitzed, the numbers were night and day.

There is a little more optimism this year because Zac Robinson has generally done a good job putting quarterbacks in good situations against the blitz throughout his play-calling career. Josh Grizzard’s offense struggled in those spots last season for the Bucs.

Still, Mayfield has generally been better against the blitz over his career than he was last season, and the early returns in this offense have been positive in that split with Robinson.

Todd Bowles is also going to sell out to stop Minnesota’s run game. That has been a defining feature of his defense, and it has continued through two weeks. Tampa Bay is allowing the fourth-fewest yards before contact per rushing attempt and playing plenty of single-high coverage.

That likely means Minnesota cannot simply establish the run at the rate it wants to. Kevin O’Connell is a smart playcaller, but the Vikings’ offensive identity is run-heavy, and Tampa Bay is well built to make Murray throw.

Maybe this turns into a sneaky shootout, with Minnesota having to rely more on their passing game with Kyler back. Give me the over.

Best Player Prop Bet for Vikings vs. Buccaneers

Justin Jefferson 70+ Receiving Yards (-114, FanDuel)

Justin Jefferson is my favorite player prop in this matchup.

If Tampa Bay sells out to take away the run and continues to play a heavy dose of single-high coverage, Minnesota is going to need Murray to throw. That should mean volume and opportunity for Jefferson.

This could be a sneaky game for fantasy. The Vikings may not be able to play exactly how they want, but that is not necessarily bad for Murray or Jefferson. The game script could force Minnesota to lean more heavily on its passing offense than it has through two weeks.

Jefferson does not need a huge day to clear 70 yards. He needs a few downfield opportunities, and the matchup should give him isolated looks outside.

If Mayfield and the Buccaneers' offense are competent enough against Flores’ pressure to create some scoring, Minnesota should have no choice but to keep putting the ball in Murray’s hands. And so far, the Bucs have allowed a very friendly ration of points per drive.

At -114, I like Jefferson for 70-plus receiving yards.

Players Mentioned in this Article

  1. Justin Jefferson
    JustinJefferson
    WRMINMIN
    PPG
    17.1
    Proj
    13.5

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