NFL Parlay Picks for Week 10: The Underdog Vikings vs. the Packers and More

It was a bloodbath for the underdogs in Week 9. They won just one of 15 games, and they were just 3-11-1 ATS. When you’re writing a column that highlights moneyline underdog parlays…that’s not a good recipe for success.

That said, it’s just one week. It doesn’t change the process here; we’re looking for a couple of different bets at different price points to build a moneyline parlay. If we can hit even one of these during the regular season, it pays for all the losses and then some.

Without further ado, let’s dive into my selections for NFL Week 10.

NFL Parlay Picks for Week 10

The Underpriced Favorite

Lions ML (-148) vs. Patriots (Munich)

I’m pretty bullish on the Lions moving forward. They play in the best division in football—maybe the best division EVER—but I think this is one of the five or six best teams in the NFL.

We know about their offense. They’re capable of scoring points in bunches, and despite a recent cold stretch, they still rank sixth in EPA per play for the year.

The bigger development has been on defense. They were a sieve to start the year, but they have looked like a completely different team following their Week 6 bye. Getting back Brian Branch has been a game-changer in the secondary, and they’ve held three straight opponents to 17 points or fewer. While part of that is attributed to their opponents, the Lions’ defense is also playing significantly better.

Meanwhile, the Patriots are coming off a game where they were absolutely demolished by the Packers. That doesn’t stand out as a huge outlier. They’re just 2-4 against teams with winning records, and one of the wins was by just three points. Ultimately, New England has yet to prove that they can go toe-to-toe with strong opponents on a consistent basis. I expect the Lions to take care of business.

The Underdog

Vikings ML (+135) at Packers

The Vikings have already beaten the Packers once this season, and it’s always tough to beat the same opponent twice. That said, I think the Vikings can do it.

The Vikings’ defense is arguably the best in football. They lack some of the star power of other defenses, but they execute Brian Flores’ scheme to perfection. They’re third in the league in EPA per play defensively, and they just held two elite offenses in the Bills and Lions to 42 total points.

The bigger issue has been their offense. They’re 31st in the league in EPA per play, and both Kyler Murray and Carson Wentz have struggled at quarterback. It forced the team to make a move before the trade deadline, and they brought back Kirk Cousins after a three-year breakup.

How much Cousins will help them remains to be seen. He’s currently seventh in adjusted EPA per pass attempt, and while that might be a bit of an outlier, he’s clearly an upgrade over what the Vikings currently have.

If he can make the Vikings' offense even league average, this team is going to be one of the best in the league. It makes them an interesting bet as underdogs this week, and I think they can win the game outright.

The Longshot

Chargers ML (+188) at Ravens

Is this the week for the Chargers? I hope so. Things can’t possibly get much worse for them. They’ve started the year with eight consecutive losses, and they haven’t even been particularly close in most of them. They’ve lost their past three games by at least 13 points, and they only have two losses by single digits all season.

The Ravens are another matchup that the Chargers are tentatively expected to lose, but it’s not the worst matchup on paper. What makes the Ravens special is Lamar Jackson at quarterback, and he’s not a part of the equation at the moment. Jacoby Brissett should be an upgrade over what the Ravens have had at QB since losing Jackson, but it’s still a clear downgrade overall.

The Ravens are just 3-5 ATS in games without Jackson since the start of last year, and they’re 0-3 without Jackson or Tyler Huntley. If the Ravens aren’t going to cover the spread, it’s going to be tough to win the game outright. Ultimately, I’ll take my chances at nearly 2-to-1.

The Touchdown Prop

Colby Parkinson Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+300)

I wrote about the Rams in my best bets column and over/unders column this week. In short, I don’t expect Carson Beck to do much in this contest with Myles Garrett back in the fold for LA.

The Rams’ offense could also struggle without Puka Nacua and Davante Adams, but they should at least be able to put together a couple of scoring drives. The Cardinals’ defense is far from intimidating, and Matthew Stafford is still a future Hall-of-Famer at QB.

The tight ends could help pick up the slack in the passing game. Guys like Tyler Higbee and Colby Parkinson should take on larger roles, and both guys are appealing anytime TD targets. Personally, Parkinson stands out as my favorite option in this market on the slate.

Final Parlay: Roughly +4450

Add all four picks together, and you get a parlay of roughly +4450. You can choose to tail it, sprinkle some of the plays into your own parlays, or fade me entirely. That’s the beauty of betting on the NFL. There’s more than one way to skin a cat, and I wish you the best of luck with all your plays in Week 10!