NFL Total (Over/Under) Picks for Week 10: Can the Patriots Keep Up with the Lions in Munich?

We continue to put together solid results in this column. We had a nice 3-1 showing in Week 9, cashing unders in Giants-Eagles and Bills-Vikings and an easy over with Packers-Patriots. Our only loss was the Over in Lions-Dolphins. The Lions may not have been 100% focused on that one, because I’m still not sure how they only scored 19 points.

Regardless, the results in this column have been overwhelmingly positive. That will happen when you hit an 11-1 stretch over three weeks, as we did from Weeks 5 through 7.

The focus now shifts to the NFL betting lines in Week 10. We have four teams on bye this week, and the NFL will head to Germany for a game in Munich. Still, there are plenty of opportunities to look for value. Here are my favorite totals for Week 10.

Week 10 NFL Total (Over/Under) Picks

New England Patriots at Detroit Lions Over 49.5 (Munich)

Best Price: -117; Caesars
Play To: Over 49.5 (-120) or Over 50.5 (-105)

After starting the year as an over machine, the Lions have become an under juggernaut. They’ve cashed three straight, and none of them have been particularly close. They’ve combined for 37 points or fewer against the Packers, Vikings and Dolphins, and their defense has undoubtedly been much improved following their bye week. Brian Branch has given their secondary a big lift, so their offense shouldn’t need to do as much as they did the first five weeks.

That said, this team can still score points in bunches, and I don’t think their defense is that improved. Matchups vs. the Vikings and Dolphins—who can’t do anything on offense—will make any defense look good.

Taking on the Patriots represents a clear step up in weight class. The Pats’ offense has been a top five unit in EPA per play after a slow start to the year, so they should be able to move the ball in this matchup. If that happens, the Lions are going to have to ramp up the offensive aggression to keep pace.

They’re definitely capable of that, and like we saw with the Packers last week, that gives them plenty of upside. Overall, this matchup should get into the 50s, providing the German fans with some quality entertainment.

RELATED: Fantasy Life's NFL Betting Game Model provides bettors with projected spreads, totals and projected win percentage for the home team to help bettors accurately handicap all Week 10 games.

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints Over 48.5

Best Price: -108; FanDuel
Play To: -115

At this point, it almost feels like we should just pretend the NFC South doesn’t exist. We’ve seen some bad divisions before, but this one might take the cake. All four teams have exactly three wins, with the Panthers and Saints at 3-5 and the Falcons and Buccaneers at 3-6. Seven wins could legitimately win the division, while an actually good team in the NFC North or West will be left out of the playoffs.

It makes these head-to-head matchups extremely important. None of these teams win much outside the division, so whoever is best in these showdowns has a big leg up for the division crown.

Both of these teams should be able to score points in this matchup. The Panthers are quietly 12th in EPA per play offensively, while the Saints are 17th. That gives both sides the edge against the opposing defense. The Saints rank just 26th in defensive EPA, while the Panthers aren’t much better at No. 20.

These teams are a combined 9-7 to the over this season, and while that’s not an elite figure, it does point to their offenses being a bit undervalued. I think this game has sneaky shootout potential.

Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals Under 39.5

Best Price: -105; Fanatics
Play To: -118

I’m keeping things pretty simple with this one: Carson Beck + Rams Defense = Disaster. Beck does not figure to be a future NFL starting QB. Maybe he can change that narrative with his play down the stretch, but he’s more than likely just keeping the seat warm until the Cardinals address the position this offseason.

Even good rookie QBs tend to struggle out of the gates, and they don’t typically have to face Myles Garrett and Aaron Donald. Garrett remains the most imposing defensive lineman in the entire NFL. He made his return to the lineup last week and managed three sacks and a forced fumble in limited snaps.

The Cardinals are also giving Beck almost nothing to work with. They picked Jeremiyah Love third overall in the 2026 NFL Draft, but he’s currently on IR. They selected Marvin Harrison fourth overall in 2024, but he was traded to Houston. Michael Wilson has been their best receiver, but he’s done for the year. It leaves Trey McBride and not much else.

Add it all up, and I think the Rams can hold the Cardinals to single digits. L.A.’s offense should also be less potent than usual with Puka Nacua out of the picture, so points figure to be at a premium.

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers Under 42.5

Best Price: -115; FanDuel
Play To: Under 42.5 (-120) or Under 41.5 (-105)

The big question for the second half of the season is how much Kirk Cousins will elevate the Vikings’ offense. If he can get them to even league average, this has the potential to be one of the best teams in football. They’re currently sitting at 6-2 despite ranking 31st in EPA per play offensively, which feels impossible. That’s how good Brian Flores and the defense have been so far this year.

Personally, I’m a bit skeptical of Cousins. He had some solid moments with the Raiders to start the year, but don’t forget what we saw in Atlanta. He looked absolutely cooked with the Falcons, and his play was already starting to decline in Las Vegas. Cousins averaged 7.7 adjusted yards per attempt across his first five games, but that figure slipped to 7.3 over his past four. That includes a dreadful 3.2 mark with three interceptions last week against the 49ers.

Essentially, I’m not expecting much to change with Minnesota moving forward. If they’re going to win games, it’s going to be on the back of their defense. They managed to hold two explosive offenses to 23 points or fewer in back-to-back games (Bills and Lions), and I see no reason why that changes against the Packers. I also don’t expect an offensive outburst against a Packers team that has quietly been pretty good defensively.

The under in this game ultimately stands out as the largest edge of the week in our NFL Game Model. We have the projected total at just 38.5 points, so it’s a pretty big discrepancy.