Hidden Gems. Underdog Battle Royale Value Picks for the Divisional Round.
We’ve made it to the last great slate of the year.
Sure, we still have the Conference Championship and Super Bowl, but this is our last slate with 8 teams available.
When the slates get smaller than four games, it gets very tricky to differentiate ourselves from the field. Everything shrinks--the top plays, the stack options, and the hidden gems, especially.
But this weekend presents us with a ton of fun ways to attack in drafts.
And Underdog Fantasy has provided us with some awesome contests as well, including a flagship Battle Royale contest with a $200,000 total prize pool and a $20,000 top prize.
Here are the two main angles I’m looking to exploit in drafts this week…
As a reminder, you can put these strategies into practice when you sign up for Underdog Fantasy below, where you can get a 100% deposit match of up to $100 with promo code LIFE:
The QB Targets
We’ve spent the entire season discussing the value of scrolling down for plays who aren’t getting drafted in every contest.
And with only 8 starting QBs in the Divisional Round and 6 QBs taken in each draft, it means only two of them are going undrafted in the majority of drafts.
Meet your fighters:
Honestly, this is about as good as you could hope for. We don’t have to deal with any low upside signal callers like Mason Rudolph and instead get two Hidden Gems with legitimate upside.
In Baker Mayfield and Jordan Love, we are getting two QB options who have no problem slinging it and are likely to be trailing for the majority of the game.
Love, specifically, has been a revelation in recent weeks. Here’s what Dwain said about him in his Utilization Report:
Love has delivered a salivating 9.3 YPA with a 76% completion rate over his last four games, unlocking 266 yards and 2.5 TDs per outing. Love now ranks sixth in fantasy points per dropback with 0.54 and is a mid-range QB1.
Similarly, Mayfield is playing inspired football right now. He’s coming off a 3 TD game against the Eagles where he threw for 337 yards. Other than the Week 18 stinker vs. the Panthers, he’s thrown at least 2 TDs in every game since Week 14.
When you look at our projections for this weekend, you’ll see Mayfield and Love slot in as the QB4 and QB5 despite getting drafted as the QB7 and QB8:
This makes them slam dunk selections in Battle Royale contests.
Not only are we getting QBs who straight-up project better than the three QBs going ahead of them (C.J. Stroud, Patrick Mahomes, and Jared Goff), but we are also getting outsized rewards when they do hit because the majority of the field isn’t drafting them.
Bonus: Another nice thing about Mayfield and Love is that you can compound your Hidden Gems leverage by pairing them with one of their pass catchers who also isn’t getting drafted in 100% of contests.
Both of these offenses spread the ball around in a way that makes it attractive to take stabs on the less popular pieces. We’re only one week removed from Romeo Doubs, Trey Palmer, and David Moore all putting up big scores after going largely undrafted.
- Packers targets: Christian Watson (34.3), Dontayvion Wicks (34.9), and Luke Musgrave (35.4)
- Bucs targets: Cade Otton (34.7), Palmer (35.8), and Moore (36)
The Ravens TE Exploit: Mark Andrews “Q” Tag
This is a sneaky good TE slate.
Not only do we have awesome options at the high end (Travis Kelce, George Kittle, and Sam LaPorta), but we also have a unique opportunity with the Ravens TEs.
Mark Andrews has returned to limited practices this week and could be ready to make his return from IR.
His “Q” tag designation on Underdog makes him a screaming target:
As a refresher, if you draft a player with a Q tag who is later ruled out (think Tyreek Hill in Week 15), Underdog will automatically swap them out for the best available TE via ADP (or your personal ranks).
This dynamic allows us to lean into uncertainty that the field often avoids, while also providing a safety net that ensures we won’t take a zero at the position.
Dec 19, 2021; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Ravens tight end Mark Andrews (89) runs after the catch during the first half against the Green Bay Packers dat M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
Andrews is currently going as the TE7, which means he isn’t being drafted in the majority of contests.
If you select him with your final pick and he doesn’t end up playing, you can set your ranks to get another TE (Otton and Musgrave–two we referenced above–are currently the TE8 and TE9).
This is essentially a win/win:
- If Andrews plays, you are getting an elite TE talent who the field wasn’t drafting at a high clip.
- If Andrews doesn’t play, you’ll swap to your preference of Otton or Musgrave, two Hidden Gems who aren’t getting drafted much as well.
And if for some reason Isaiah Likely (TE5) doesn’t get drafted (which isn’t crazy if someone takes Dalton Schultz over him) you can select Andrews and get Likely if he doesn’t go.
This is the dream scenario because Likely’s outlook greatly improves with Andrews out of the lineup.
Good luck this weekend, we’ll be back next week but with a focus on Pick ‘Ems.
