Underdog Pick 'Em Selections For Week 10: Bryce Young Reaches Higher

My 50% hit streak ended, and not in a good way. Week 9 was a rough one with none of my picks hitting, despite several close calls. Quinshon Judkins was stuffed at the goal line multiple times while Malik Nabers fell short of his yardage total despite seeing 8 targets against a weak Philly pass defense. Treylon Burks ended up being a bit of a surprise inactive due to a foot injury. Lastly, Javonte Williams did score a TD, but it came in the second half instead of the first, which is what I needed for my longshot.

If you’re new to this article, every week I will be bringing you my favorite picks on Underdog. I will start by highlighting three of the best picks for the week based on the line vs. fantasy football projections. I will also give you a couple of my favorite longshot selections for the week that you can include to juice your pick 'em payouts. Now that we have nine weeks of data to look at, I will also be incorporating position-level matchup information, particularly our DvP tool to identify the most advantageous matchups.

One quick thing to note before diving in is that I live in an Underdog Champions state, which means that my payouts may look slightly different than they would for someone who lives in a standard pick 'em state, but the differences should be minimal.

Week 10 Underdog Pick 'Em Selections

Bryce Young higher than 239.5 passing yards

Bryce Young still ranks fourth among all QBs in passing yards per game at 274.6. He did have two down weeks against the Bucs and Packers Weeks 7 and 8, but bounced back with 276 yards against the Broncos last week.

The Panthers now take on a Saints defense giving up the fourth-biggest passing yardage boost to opposing QBs in our DvP tool. This game is indoors and should be a back-and-forth matchup with two capable offenses facing below-average defenses. The Fantasy Life projections have Bryce Young all the way up at 254.3 passing yards, which gives us a nice edge over this line.

Tyler Higbee higher than 3.5 receptions

The Rams' pass catchers have been devastated by injury with Davante Adams and Puka Nacua now out. The WR depth chart is bleak with Tutu Atwell and Konata Mumpfield expected to serve as the top wideouts. As a result, I expect Sean McVay to lean on his RBs and TEs even more heavily than they have been.

With Terrance Ferguson still sidelined, Tyler Higbee should be the biggest beneficiary of that structural change and likely become the top target for Matthew Stafford. In most weeks, that might not work out too well, but in Week 10 against the Cardinals defense that should still be enough to move the ball. The Rams will likely take a run-heavy approach, especially considering the Cardinals' QB situation, but when they do throw I expect Higbee to be targeted early and often.

The Fantasy Life projections have Higbee for 5.6 targets and 4.3 receptions, so we expect him to clear this line in a median scenario. If Arizona is able to find any success with its offense that should only push the Rams more to the air and make it easier for Higbee to rack up catches.

Cam Ward lower than 199.5 passing yards

Betting against Cam Ward backfired on me two weeks ago, but I’m going back to the well against a Jaguars defense that made major upgrades at the trade deadline and now looks like one of the most talented units in the league. Jacksonville acquired Devon Godchaux, Jessie Bates and Jordan Davis last week in a clear signal of its Super Bowl aspirations.

The first test for that revamped defense comes against Ward and the Titans offense that has been largely ineffective this season. Yes, Ward is coming off a 304-yard passing performance against Cincinnati in his last game, but he has eclipsed 200 passing yards only one other time this year. My expectation is that the Jags dominate this game and get regular pressure on Ward. Even if he is forced to drop back a bunch due to a negative game script, I’m not confident he’ll be able to move the ball consistently.

Week 10 Underdog Pick 'Em Longshot

Jaxon Smith-Njigba higher than 119.5 receiving yards

Jaxon Smith-Njigba is putting up one of the most dominant seasons by a WR in NFL history and that should continue this week against the Raiders' porous pass defense.

JSN ranks second among all WRs in Utilization Score with a ridiculous 36% target share and 50% air yards share. In the three games this season where Drew Lock has played meaningful snaps, JSN has racked up 32 targets and eclipsed 120 receiving yards twice.

He should be featured heavily in this matchup and Lock is good enough to make plays against a bad defense. Going over 120 receiving yards is not easy, but Smith-Njigba has made it look like a routine Sunday so far this season and has a good chance of doing so again in Vegas this weekend.