Underdog Pick 'Em Selections For Week 9: Malik Nabers Flies High On The Eagles

For the third consecutive week I had a 50% hit rate on my picks. Luther Burden delivered on his receiving-yardage line and Joe Burrow continued to rack up passing TDs, which got my longshot pick home. However, Drake Maye did not reach his passing-yardage line and Cam Ward had a season high in passing yardage (by a lot), which I was on the wrong side of. It was another decent week, but the goal is to break through and hit three or four in order to win big.

If you’re new to this article, every week I will be bringing you my favorite picks on Underdog. I will start by highlighting three of the best picks for the week based on the line vs. fantasy football projections. I will also give you a couple of my favorite longshot selections for the week that you can include to juice your pick 'em payouts. Now that we have six weeks of data to look at, I will also be incorporating position-level matchup information, particularly our DvP tool to identify the most advantageous matchups.

One quick thing to note before diving in is that I live in an Underdog Champions state, which means that my payouts may look slightly different than they would for someone who lives in a standard pick 'em state, but the differences should be minimal.

Week 9 Underdog Pick Em Selections

Malik Nabers higher than 72.5 receiving yards

Football is a funny game. J.J. McCarthy did not look like an NFL-caliber QB for the Minnesota Vikings, but after a change of scenery and a chance to play for the New York Giants, he suddenly looks competent. Of course, we are working with a very small sample size of five quarters of football, but it is the best football we have seen McCarthy play as a pro. His next big test comes against a reeling Philadelphia Eagles team that appears headed for a lost season.

Philly just announced it is turning to Joe Milton as their starting QB in Week 9. It was a slightly surprising move, but one that makes sense if they are simply trying to evaluate the variety of young QBs on their roster. This will be Milton's first career start and he has just 53 regular-season pass attempts under his belt in two-and-a-half seasons. If he struggles, the Giants should easily dominate possession in this game.

On defense, the Eagles are quickly becoming a pass funnel. They have been stout against the run, but they are giving up the fourth-most receiving yards per game to opposing WRs and rank in the bottom third of the league for EPA allowed per dropback. If the Giants are able to control time of possession and attack Philly through the air, I like betting on a big game for Malik Nabers.

After steadily ramping up during the first month of the season, Nabers ran 90+% of routes in each of his last four games and logged a Utilization Score of 82 or higher in each of those games as well. All signs point to him being back to full health and the Giants just had a bye week to continue building rapport between McCarthy and his pass catchers.

Quinshon Judkins higher than 0.5 rushing TDs

The Browns are expected to be without Deshaun Watson this week, which means Shedeur Sanders is likely to get the start when the Browns face New Orleans on Sunday. The Saints are the worst rush defense by success rate allowed, rush EPA per play, fantasy points allowed, and virtually every other metric. Cleveland should be able to lean on its run game to control possession, keep the game close and attempt to sneak out a win.

That recipe bodes well for Quinshon Judkins, who has dominated the work in this backfield when healthy. That is especially true around the goal line with Judkins handling 100% of the rush attempts inside the 5-yard line in games he was healthy. If Cleveland can get the ball deep in Saints territory just a couple times during this game I think it is a high probability that Judkins can punch one into the end zone.

Treylon Burks higher than 29.5 receiving yards

This one is primarily a projections play. Treylon Burks receiving yards is one of the biggest edges in the Fantasy Life projections vs the lines at sportsbooks. We have him for 41.6 receiving yards this week, a significant edge over this line.

Week 8 was the first full game for the Commanders without Terry McLaurin. Burks ran 79% of routes, a 21% target share, and a 38% air yards share in that game. He appears set to have a big role in the passing game moving forward so a sub-30 yard receiving line is a high-probability bet to make.

The Rams defense is solid against the pass, but they aren't so dominant that you need to steer clear of opposing pass catchers. This game also has the potential to be high scoring, which could push both teams to throw the ball often. Burks is the kind of explosive downfield playmaker who could clear this line with one catch, but he should also see enough target volume to accumulate yards.

Week 9 Longshot for PrizePicks NFL Player Props

Javonte Williams higher than 0.5 first half rushing/receiving TD

The Cowboys get to take on the hapless Indianapolis Colts in Week 9. This should be a high-scoring game and I expect Dallas to be able to move the ball at will. When they get the ball down near the end zone there is one person that they give it to. Javonte Williams has a 100% rush attempt share inside the 5-yard line this season and I fully expect the Dallas offense to get down there a few times in this game.

Williams is a heavy favorite to score a TD this week so I am going to juice that payout by betting he finds paydirt in the first half. There isn't any data to suggest he is more likely to score in the first half than the second half, but after an embarrassing loss to the Cardinals last week, the Cowboys should be motivated to come out and start strong this week. If we see a couple of sustained drives from Dallas in the first half I believe there is a good chance we see Javonte cap one of those drives with a score.