Caleb Williams Scouting Report and Fantasy Football Outlook
Caleb Williams Scouting Report
- Underdog ADP: 111.7 overall (QB14), rookie QB1
The No. 8 overall recruit and No. 1 dual-threat QB in the 2021 high school class, Caleb Williams began his prolific collegiate career at Oklahoma (in style) before following head coach Lincoln Riley to USC. There, he promptly won the Heisman Trophy in 2022 after a season with 52 total TDs and 4,919 total yards.
His encore in 2023 still included plenty of ridiculous numbers (41 TDs and 3,775 total yards in two fewer games), but the Trojans’ leaky defense led to far less success when it came to wins and losses. Pretty much any advanced metric tells the same story: Williams was nothing short of elite during his three college seasons.
Here's how Williams graded and ranked among 122 Power-5 QBs with 300-plus dropbacks in those three years from 2021 to 2023:
- Pro Football Focus (PFF) pass grade: 91.4 (No. 5)
- Passer rating: 118.3 (No. 3)
- Adjusted completion rate: 76% (No. 23)
- Yards per attempt: 9.1 (No. 7)
Williams is the consensus 1.01 selection in the 2024 NFL Draft for good reason, as his elite arm talent and escapability led to a never-ending stream of ridiculous highlights as both a passer and rusher. And while nobody is (hopefully) expecting the 22-year-old to immediately be elite at the NFL level, it’s hard to not be enthralled with Williams's ability to force defenses to essentially account for every square inch of the football field.
Of course, that’s only scratching the surface of why Williams has earned the “generational” label from so many draft pundits. Let’s dive into the nitty-gritty details of the expected future No. 1 overall pick.
Note: I watched the all-22 copies of the 2022/23 Notre Dame, 2023 Washington, 2023 Oregon and 2023 Arizona games specifically in preparation for this article.
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Caleb Williams Pros and Cons
Pros
Arm talent and ball placement
It’s easy to fall in love with Williams’s ability to generate so much velocity from multiple arm angles while running at full speed, but it was his pristine ball placement (particularly downfield) that stood out again and again on film.
*Best Cris Collinsworth impression* We got a guy here who can chuck the rock 65 yards on a dime in a clean pocket and can also deliver lasers on the run to both his right and left.
As The Ringer's Danny Kelly so eloquently put it:
“His arm talent is one of his defining features: He can throw frozen ropes to all three levels of the field; he flashes touch on deep shots; and he can get the ball where he wants it to go from pretty much any platform—whether he’s off-balance, falling away, getting tackled, or even jumping up in the air, he’s able to whip the ball downfield with velocity.”
There are times when it does seem like Williams is giving up a single or double in an attempt to hit the home run play, but context is needed at times. For instance, take this first play at Notre Dame from 2022: Why didn’t he just hit the open crosser? Well, because it was 3rd and 20.
Oct 28, 2023; Berkeley, California, USA; USC Trojans quarterback Caleb Williams (13) throws a pass against the California Golden Bears during the first quarter at California Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports
It’s fair to wonder if Williams is at times too big-play-minded, but that doesn’t erase his remarkable ability to turn nothing into something. I mean seriously, what the hell is this witchcraft?
Williams would be a dangerous enough QB with just his arm even if he were forced to never leave the pocket, but luckily, the NFL has no such restrictions, which brings us to his dynamic ability to make things happen with his legs.
Escapability
Don’t just take my word for it, listen to Nate Tice, who wrote an excellent breakdown on Williams over at Yahoo Sports:
“Williams' incredible ability to ad-lib and extend plays, creating positive and explosive gains for the offense when a negative outcome looks likely, is what draws the eyeballs and accolades. And deservedly so! Williams is simply excellent when throwing on the move, and he can attack any area of the football field and punish any defender who's a step slow or an inch out of place:”
Part of his escapability comes from natural talent. Williams ran a verified 4.57 40-yard dash and a 4.12 shuttle as an incoming collegiate recruit, numbers very similar to what Russell Wilson (4.55, 4.09) managed coming out of Wisconsin.
And yet, it’s Williams’s joystick moves and ability to manipulate defenders in open space that are especially dynamic. His mobility doesn't make Williams a run-first QB per se, but it’s hard not to be enamored about this facet of his game translating to fantasy football production.
Overall, Williams scored a ridiculous 27 rushing TDs in 37 games in college, having regularly proved capable of making defenders of all shapes and sizes look silly in space.
It should come as no surprise that it won’t be as easy for Williams to accomplish this at the NFL level, so don’t expect him to put up Lamar Jackson-esque rushing production. Still, Williams's middling career average of 3.3 yards per carry (YPC) is incredibly misleading and is depressed by how many sacks he took (more on that in a bit).
When excluding sacks, here's what Williams's true rushing production looked like over the last two seasons:
- 2023: 74-356-11 (4.8 YPC)
- 2022: 94-624-10 (6.6 YPC)
These impressive rushing totals are indicative of the playmaking potential Williams has at the next level on the ground. High-volume dual-threat QBs tend to be cheat codes in fantasy land, so don’t be surprised if Williams at least manages to crack the top-10 QBs in fantasy points from pure rushing production each season in the NFL.
Cons
Looks too much for big plays at times
As mentioned before, there are times when Williams seems to press and give up the easy five or 10-yard play while looking for an opportunity to rip off a chunk play.
But that doesn't mean that Williams isn't able to make things happen within structure.
Of course, sometimes there was no choice but for Williams to do his best Superman impression, especially in 2023 when the USC offensive line and defense routinely failed him.
While it’s far from a given that Williams’s future employer, the Bears, will be able to consistently give him a clean pocket and positive game script to work with week in and week out, it can't get much worse than what he was forced to deal with last season. After all, USC's defense allowed at least 28 points in each of their final 10 games in 2023.
Oregon outside linebacker Teitum Tuioti sacks USC quarterback Caleb Williams as the No. 6 Oregon Ducks host the USC Trojans Saturday, Nov. 11, 2023, at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Ore. Photo Credit: Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK
The Athletic's Dane Brugler had this to say about this common critique of Williams:
“He tends to be overconfident in his ability to find answers among chaos, though. Williams led the FBS in touchdowns (120) and “wow” plays over the last three years, but he also led the country in fumbles (33) and needs to take better care of the football.”
Failure to protect the ball is certainly an easy way to bust at the next level, as is struggling to handle pressure…
Pressure-to-sack ratio
Sacks tend to be more of a QB stat than an indictment on the offensive line, especially when considering the rate at which signal-callers let pressured dropbacks result in negative yardage. Look no further than the best NFL QBs at pressure-to-sack ratio: Limiting sacks is arguably just as important as not turning the football, something FiveThirtyEight’s Josh Hermsmeyer noted in the past.
Per Josh, teams were 18.4% more likely to have a drive end in a punt if a sack occurred on that drive, and he found that teams were around 20% more likely to not come away with points when compared to drives that didn’t feature a sack.
Williams’s performance in this department wasn’t great, but it’s also not a glaring red flag.
The inclusion of Joe Burrow in the lesser tier of the above tweet is interesting because he’s spoken in the past about how there are good sacks vs. bad sacks. For example, taking a sack on third down when you’re not already in a position to kick a field isn’t all that big of a deal.
Applying this ideology to Williams does in fact demonstrate that he was far better at avoiding sacks on early downs than on money downs.
Don’t get it twisted. It’d be cooler if Williams was closer to the top of the overall list than the bottom, but at a minimum, it’s good that he’s more than demonstrated the athleticism to avoid one incoming rusher after another. And watching the ole tape with context did seem to show a heightened willingness to make more things happen on third downs.
Just look at Williams’ average time to throw from on a down-to-down basis:
- 1st and 2nd downs: 3.13 seconds
- 3rd downs: 3.47 seconds
The former mark is still a bit higher than it probably should be, but the overall +0.34 difference trails only Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy (+0.42) among the top six QBs in the 2024 rookie class.
Somewhat reigning in the off-script magic at the next level when NFL defensive linemen will inevitably be a bit faster will be a necessity. However, his struggles in this department don't overshadow the rest of great abilities that Williams brings to the table as a QB prospect.
Fantasy Football Outlook for Caleb Williams
Fantasy Life’s Matthew Freedman, along with basically every other mock drafter out there, has the Bears selecting Williams as the No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. It’s hard to debate the selection considering what the betting markets (-5000, FanDuel) are expressing as well.
Normally, the NFL team picking first doesn’t exactly offer a great offensive environment for a rookie QB, but the Bears are in a unique position to support Williams having acquired this pick via trade from the Panthers last year.
D.J. Moore and Keenan Allen (and potentially another WR at No. 9 overall in the draft) offer a strong pass-catching corps for Williams. Chicago's new offensive coordinator, Shane Waldron, has also served as the passing game coordinator and offensive coordinator for the Rams and Seahawks in recent years. In theory, this landing spot should give Williams a fighting chance in spite of the Bears' recent struggles to develop Justin Fields.
That said, Williams’s current ADP as the QB14 over at Underdog Fantasy may be a bit too optimistic considering the history of rookie QBs in fantasy land. Just four rookie QBs have posted top-12 fantasy finishes over the last decade:
- Justin Herbert (QB7)
- C.J. Stroud (QB8)
- Dak Prescott (QB9)
- Kyler Murray (QB11)
Oct 7, 2023; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans quarterback Caleb Williams (13) scores on the two point conversion during the third overtime ahead of Arizona Wildcats cornerback Tacario Davis (23) at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
Still, Williams does share two traits with those rookie QBs who did succeed: a starting job to open the season and rushing upside. For these reasons, I’m comfortable targeting Williams in this ADP range ahead of veteran QBs like Kirk Cousins, Matthew Stafford, and Aaron Rodgers. Those veterans don’t offer the same dual-threat upside and carry more age and injury concerns heading into 2024.
In dynasty formats, the cost to acquire Williams will be far steeper, particularly in superflex and 2QB leagues. He's already ranked among the top-10 QBs in dynasty considering his expected draft capital and is unlikely to make it out of the first round in many superflex startup drafts. However, that's not crazy considering that Williams's fantasy ceiling is worth chasing. After all, sacks are detrimental overall but don’t count for negative fantasy points.
The bottom line is that while there were times when Williams flashed a certain off-balance release or arm angle that warranted a Patrick Mahomes comp, I’m going with "prime Russell Wilson with more arm talent” as my comp. This may sound like a poor comp given Wilson's struggles in recent seasons, but it's not. Wilson was among the NFL’s best QBs for the first decade of his career and will probably eventually end up in the Hall of Fame.
I expect Williams to offer similar big-play upside along with fantasy-friendly rushing production early and often in his NFL career, and he has the potential to blossom into one of the game’s best and most exciting players at the QB position. Williams is most definitely not Mahomes, but there's a non-zero chance that he could eventually develop into a similarly elite talent.
