Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag - Rookie Sleepers and more
Welcome to the Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag! My goal is to bring you thoughts, insight, and research on the most current dynasty topics in the industry.
Let’s dive deep into some tough-to-decipher scenarios and mess around with some fun “what ifs”.
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Rookie Sleepers for Dynasty Fantasy Football
“Who’s a rookie outside the top 30-ish that you would consider reaching for?"
Generally, when I'm looking for your classic "sleeper" type picks, I'm looking for players that meet two criteria:
- Good athletic profile
- Good landing spot
Devontez Walker fits the bill nicely.
Selected in the fourth round by the Baltimore Ravens (good offense), Walker's high-end athletic profile jumps off the page.
To give some context to this chart, Chris Allen wrote up an excellent dynasty prospect profile on Walker and had this to say about him:
Big plays are a constant across Walker’s metrics. And I’m specifically choosing the word “big” instead of “explosive” here. In his second year at Kent State, Walker accounted for 11 of the 17 passing TDs thrown during the regular season. He produced the third-most first downs at UNC. Accordingly, his target share continued to dominate the competition once he became a starter.
However, there's a reason he was a Day 3 pick, despite the enticing profile. Allen notes some of Walker's struggles in college:
Walker has the highest receiving aDOT of his class while also having the lowest slot rate. Essentially, he catches passes downfield and frequently faces man or press coverage. Outside of a highly creative offense, coaching staffs may relegate his skillset to a role more viable to real-life football than fantasy football.
To put it simply, he's essentially been an outside-only type of wideout throughout his career. Thankfully, his landing spot could help offset some of these concerns. His athletic ability isn't going away and he's tied to a top-end offense. That makes him a priority target for me outside of the first few tiers of rookies in this class.
Dynasty Outlook for Ben Sinnott
“Do we think Ben Sinnott will be a top 2 target earner on that offense in the future?”
With their third of three second-round picks, the Washington Commanders selected TE Ben Sinnott (53rd overall). Zach Ertz is the only viable option at the position and he's not getting any younger (or healthier).
The biggest offseason acquisition for the Commanders was certainly Jayden Daniels who they drafted No. 2 overall. With a decently talented WR room, how much should we expect from Sinnott both in Year 1 and in the future?
Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson should be the top two target earners in the offense, especially with the departure of Curtis Samuel and Logan Thomas, who combined for 169 targets in 2023. Washington also swapped out Antonio Gibson for Austin Ekeler so there's a new pass-catching RB in town as well.
Despite all the moving pieces, I still think Sinnott could be the biggest winner here. The Kansas State product does possess high-end athletic traits:
- 76th percentile 40-yard dash (4.68)
- 76th percentile speed score (103.7)
- 98th percentile burst score (133.0)
- 94th percentile agility score (11.05)
- 96th percentile catch radius (10.36)
Our own Pete Overzet went so far as to label Sinnott, "a poor man's version of what Sam LaPorta did as a rookie".
How can you not love that?
Sinnott checks in at TE2 in our Rookie TE Model behind only Brock Bowers. Sinnott steps into a situation that is ripe for opportunity and he gets to grow alongside Daniels and the rest of this offense.
It might not pay off in Year 1 (remember, be patient with rookie TEs) but Sinnott is someone who could certainly become a priority target for this new-look Commanders offense.
Breaking Down the Patriots WRs
“Which Patriots WR do you prefer at their current rookie draft ADP”
Ah, the New England Patriots. It's so different there now with both Brady & Belichick now gone. Let's see if Drake Maye can help turn this franchise around after Mac Jones was unable to do so.
The Pats selected Ja'Lynn Polk with the 37th overall pick and Javon Baker in the fourth round. Both having intriguing profiles but, assuming you don't want two rookie wideouts from this team, who should you prioritize and why?
- Polk - WR8
- Baker - WR18
Starting with Polk, Jonathan Fuller noted just how versatile he was in college and how that could benefit him at the next level:
Polk can play outside and in the slot, which gives him multiple paths to getting on the field. He’s an ideal depth piece who can fill multiple roles for his future NFL team. And during his final two seasons at Washington, Polk played 37.3% and 41.1% of his snaps from the slot, respectively.
The Patriots certainly have a need at the position. Aside from the rookies, they have a rag-tag group of veterans who really haven't done much in recent years. Maye needs all the help he can get and Polk has the opportunity to do just that.
Dwain McFarland noted that Polk was one of his biggest post-draft risers and echoed Fuller's observations about his versatility:
Polk demonstrated an ability to attack all layers of the field for the Huskies, but he was particularly good at unlocking deep and intermediate shots down the field. Below is his target profile and how it compares to the NCAA average for a WR.
Behind the line of scrimmage: 14% (+0 percentage points)
- 0 to 9 yards: 29% (-10)
- 10 to 19 yards: 32% (+4)
- 20-plus yards: 25% (+5)
As for Baker, his Day 3 draft capital leaves a lot to be desired compared to someone who went 37th overall. Still, his profile offers some level of intrigue.
Baker spent two years at Alabama and then two years at UCF. In his final season, he posted 1,139 receiving yards and seven TDs on 52 receptions. However, he carries Day 3 capital and is, at best, an average athlete by most metrics.
Still, if you like workout-hype videos, Baker currently has one of the best we've seen thus far.
When looking at which player to pick, sometimes it's easy to default to the cheaper option and recoup that value. However, in this instance, I'm taking Polk at cost. His entire profile – production, college team environment, athleticism, and draft capital – gives him the edge, even accounting for the difference in rookie draft ADP.
The Best Day 3 Rookie RBs for Dynasty Fantasy Football
“Who are your favorite day 3 RBs - not named Wright/Irving?”
We knew this rookie class was weak at RB even before the NFL Draft. Veteran RBs made out pretty well this offseason thanks to a few new contracts and not many challenging newcomers.
Still, when you dig deep enough, there are some intriguing landing spots, storylines, and profiles that could lend themselves to fantasy success if everything falls into place.
Ray Davis & Isaac Guerendo both went in the fourth round and, aside from Jaylen Wright & Bucky Irving, are my picks for this question.
- Guerendo - RB8
- Davis - RB13
Admittedly, it's not great when you can't crack the top five in a weak RB class and still be considered valuable. But that's why it's fun to look at landing spots and profiles and see if we can, as the kids say, find some diamonds in the rough.
Guerendo went with the 129th pick (Round 4) and landed in arguably the most fantasy-friendly environment: the 49ers.
Heading into the NFL Draft, Dwain noted just how unique his upside could be, especially given the context that he spent five years in college and is 24 years old:
After clocking a 4.33 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine, Guerendo’s draft expectations soared. His 125.7 Speed Score ranks No. 1 in the Super Model database. Originally considered an undrafted free agent prospect, the six-year collegiate back now looks like a Round 5 pick based on consensus mock drafts.
He sports a 98th percentile mark or better in the 40-yard dash, speed score, and burst score. Add in his landing spot with Kyle Shanahan and his fantasy-friendly offense and it's hard not to get excited about Guerendo in dynasty formats.
Yes, he's old, and his production profile is lacking in many areas, but all these RBs need is an opportunity and they could massively pay off.
Looking at Davis, he's a bit lower in the Rookie RB Model (RB13). He was selected 128th overall (one spot ahead of Guerendo) by the Buffalo Bills. Dwain perfectly captured his outlook with the following:
Davis dominated the Kentucky backfield in his fifth season by bogarting 65% of the designed attempts and posting a 62% route participation. That led to a best-season 2.58 adjusted YPTA (67th percentile), pushing his career mark to 1.80 (59th percentile)...He was a stronger runner than a receiver. Per PFF grades, he scored in the 67th percentile as a rusher and fell in the 48th percentile as a receiver for his career…Zierlein gave Davis a 6.17 prospect grade, which equates to a “good backup with the potential to develop into a starter.”
The Bills have James Cook but he's never been a high-volume player even when it looked like he was the only option they had. Davis could (and should) complement him well, especially near the goal line. Landing spots and opportunity reign supreme for these Day 3 RBs and dynasty managers should not be afraid to reach on these slightly older prospects.
