Dynasty Rookie Profile: CJ Stroud
With the Super Bowl behind us, it's time to turn our attention to the NFL Draft and the incoming 2023 rookie class. Eliot Crist discusses the pros and cons of CJ Stroud as a dynasty prospect and how to bet on him in the NFL Draft.
CJ Stroud
- Rookie Ranking: 5
- Underdog ADP: 137
- Mock Draft v3: 4th overall (Colts)
- Landing Spot: Houston Texans (2nd overall)
Fantasy Outlook
Congrats to the Houston Texans. Their smokescreen tactics to obscure their intentions worked all the way up through Day 1 of the draft. And now, armed with the top defensive prospect and one of the top QBs in CJ Stroud, their rebuild begins in earnest.
But there's a long road ahead.
The Texans' offensive line finished 17th in pass block win rate but were able to add a new center in the second round. However, Stroud wasn't known for his mobility as a Buckeye, with only 40 attempts on his collegiate resume. So he'll need high-end pass catchers to pull him into fantasy relevancy.
Houston's starting three-WR set includes Nico Collins, John Metchie, and Robert Woods. Even with Dalton Schultz at TE, this isn't a pass-catching group capable of elevating a QB. It's ironic seeing something from Texas lacking firepower, but Stroud lacks any fantasy interest outside of a potential streaming option.
Way-too-early 2023 redraft rank: QB26
Summary
A two-year starter at Ohio State, CJ Stroud had a decorated career. He was a two-time Heisman finalist, won Freshman of the Year in 2021, and won the Big Ten Conference Player of the Year award in each of his two seasons as a starter.
Pros
Stroud has the prototypical size for a QB at 6’3 and 214 lbs. and is an accomplished passer. There is no throw that he can’t make.
He has elite arm strength and a picture-perfect deep ball. In fact, Stroud averaged 10 yards per attempt in 2022, with 1,082 of his 4,435 passing yards coming on deep passes.
While many college QBs have passing stats inflated by the screen game, only 224 of Stroud's passing yards came from screens, ranking just 109th most in the country.
In addition to deep balls, Stroud also throws the ball with touch and accuracy. He completed 71.6% of his passes last season, which was 9% higher than the college average. Moreover, Stroud can deliver the ball between the numbers and knows how to lead receivers to maximize yards after the catch.
Stroud is this draft class's most accurate passer when passing from a clean pocket.
When not under pressure, Stroud picked defenses apart. Per PFF, he had a 71.7% completion rate, 35 passing TDs, and a 93.4 PFF grade in 2022 when playing from a clean pocket.
Finally, Stroud didn't just beat up on bad opponents.
He also excelled in the biggest games against Ohio State's toughest opponents. Stroud’s performance against the country's best defense, Georgia, in a playoff game remains the best tape of any QB in this year's rookie class.
Dec 31, 2022; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Ohio State Buckeyes quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) runs for a first down past Georgia Bulldogs defensive lineman Mykel Williams (13) and defensive back Kamari Lassiter (3) during the second half of the Peach Bowl in the College Football Playoff semifinal at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Ohio State lost 42-41. Mandatory Credit: Adam Cairns-The Columbus Dispatch Ncaa Football Peach Bowl Ohio State At Georgia
Cons
The first rule of scouting is to scout the player, not the helmet.
Many will hold the fact that Stroud attended Ohio State against him, likening him to other Buckeyes QBs like Dwayne Haskins, Cardale Jones, and JT Barrett, all of whom had short NFL careers.
But comparing him to such QBs simply because of their shared alma mater would be disingenuous. None of these players had the pedigree that Stroud does.
That being said, one concern for Stroud will be the drop in receiving talent going from Ohio State to the pro level. Stroud played with Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave during his redshirt freshman season, the two best rookie receivers from 2022.
After that year, Stroud's top targets were Jaxon Smith-Njigba, the current favorite to be the top wide receiver drafted this year, and Marvin Harrison Jr., who is a near-lock to be the first WR prospect selected in the 2024 NFL Draft.
If Stroud were to go first overall to Carolina, he would be throwing to one of the worst wide receiver groups in the NFL.
Additionally, while Stroud excelled from a clean pocket, as mentioned above, he completed just 41.3% of his passes when under pressure. While he has the athleticism to evade defenders, he rarely used it to buy time outside of the pocket other than in his performance against Georgia.
Although Stroud showed in that game that he is capable of feeling and managing pressure, it's definitely still an area of improvement for him as a prospect.
Stroud also had a habit of locking onto his top option too often in his final collegiate season, though it's a hard to blame him for doing so when that top option was Marvin Harrison Jr.
Dec 31, 2022; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Ohio State Buckeyes wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. (18) reacts after scoring a touchdown against the Georgia Bulldogs during the second quarter of the 2022 Peach Bowl at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
Fantasy Impact
Stroud checks in as the No. 3 ranked player in my superflex rookie rankings, and I am extremely bullish on his future in the NFL.
I am, however, passing on him at current ADP for 2023 best ball drafts. Likely playing with the Panthers, Stroud will have one of the league's worst NFL rosters around him. His lack of supporting talent could greatly reduce his fantasy potential as a rookie even if he were to be the Week 1 starter in Carolina.
Betting Odds
Overall, the odds on who will be selected first overall in the 2023 NFL Draft have been a rollercoaster ride over the last 10 days. Stroud's odds were as high as +650 at some books to be the first overall pick at one point.
However, after the Panthers traded up, his odds re-opened at -115, shot up to as high as -450 at one point, and have since settled around the -300 mark at most books.
Josh McCown praised Stroud on the Underdog Fantasy Football show only a couple of months ago, saying Stroud has “a similar skillset to Joe Burrow”, and McCown has since been hired as Carolina's QBs coach.
The fact that Panthers head coach Frank Reich has never had a QB shorter than 6’2 on any of his previous rosters might also point to Stroud as their preferred pick over Bryce Young.
Stroud is the rightful favorite to go first overall in the NFL Draft, and I'm not buying the rumors that Carolina traded multiple first-round picks and their best offensive player in DJ Moore without a clear QB choice in mind.
That being said, the current odds on Stroud to be the first overall pick don't offer much value. I would rather bet on Stroud at -500 in a month's time following more concrete reports than to chase steam at -300 based on unconfirmed reports.
You can track Stroud's line movement to be the first overall pick at BetMGM, where he's currently listed as the -275 favorite, and place your bet when you feel best about it.
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