Dynasty Stock Watch: Post-Draft Risers and Fallers
The NFL Draft did not disappoint this year.
While we ended up with some predictable selections, there were certainly some surprises (looking at you, Atlanta).
We finally have landing spots for the incoming rookies, so let's take a look at four players who experienced significant shifts in their dynasty stock.
Dynasty Fantasy Football Risers: Post-Draft
Brian Thomas Jr., WR - Jaguars
When the NFL Draft started, one of the players I was most excited to follow was Brian Thomas Jr. We had the obvious Big 3 at WR (Marvin Harrison Jr, Malik Nabers, Rome Odunze) but Thomas represented the "next man up" in terms of both prospect profile and expected draft capital.
Dwain McFarland's WR Rookie Model said the same by way of his WR4 ranking.
On draft night, the Jaguars stayed patient despite the early run on wideouts and offensive players in general. They traded back from No. 17 to No. 23 in a deal with the Vikings and landed Thomas at No. 23. He steps into a great offensive environment with lots of potential / upside.
In 2023, Thomas played second-fiddle to Nabers (no fault of his own) but still managed to post an elite line of 68 / 1,177 / 17 TDs as the No. 2 option for the LSU Tigers. Also, his size/speed combination is straight-up unfair. He checks in at 6' 3" / 209 lbs and ran a 4.33 40-yard dash. Ian Hartitz put a bow on his athletic profile with this nugget:
His 9.97 out of 10.00 RAS score ranks 10th out of 3,063 WRs from 1987 to 2024.
The Jaguars lost Calvin Ridley but added Gabe Davis this offseason. Despite the swap, and presence of Christian Kirk and Zay Jones, Thomas has the physical tools to step in and immediately become a focal point for Trevor Lawrence.
The dynasty community already valued Thomas as a high-end WR3 (WR28) . His pairing with Lawrence is about as good as we hoped (outside of falling to the Chiefs or Bills). He'll be battling with Xavier Worthy (Chiefs) and the aforementioned tier of top-3 WRs in rookie drafts and I would happily take him in that range.
Joe Mixon, RB - Texans
The NFL told us everything we needed to know about this incoming class of rookie RBs back when free agency started. More than a handful of RBs found themselves in new situations. We even saw some RBs get decent contracts (Saquon Barkley).
Even with so much movement at the position during free agency, dynasty managers still had to sweat out the draft to see if their incumbent would be getting any backfield competition. Thankfully, one of the more promising free agent deals is looking like a big free agency/NFL Draft winner: Joe Mixon.
Mixon had himself a bit of a resurgent season last year. He played in all 17 games and posted solid production in all facets:
- 257 rushing attempts
- 1,034 rushing yards
- 9 TDs
- 52 receptions
- 376 receiving yards
- 3 receiving TDs
Normally, leaving an offense like the Bengals wouldn't result in a positive but landing with the Texans and their offensive weapons could bring exciting things for Mixon.
The loss of Devin Singletary opens the door for Mixon to be the clear RB1 ahead of only Dameon Pierce. Even if Pierce serves as a complimentary option, Mixon and his dynasty ADP of RB21 feel like a great value for dynasty managers.
Mixon is only 27 years old and his new contract is for three years. Look for him to help stabilize the ground game for CJ Stroud & Co.
Dynasty Fantasy Football Fallers: Post-Draft
Adonai Mitchell, WR - Colts
For a guy who was starting to get some buzz as a fringe first-round pick, almost falling out of the second round isn't ideal. As for the landing spot, it's likely going to be a better real football move as opposed to a fantasy-friendly move, at least in the short term.
Adonai Mitchell fell to the Colts at No. 52 overall. That makes me feel…fine? I guess?
Similar to the Nabers/Thomas tandem, Mitchell was the clear No. 2 option for the Longhorns behind Xavier Worthy. Despite a relatively limited college production profile, compared to some of the other options in this class, Mitchell has the size (6' 2" / 205 lbs) and athletic profile to be a game changer at the next level.
Ian Hartitz noted just how historic his athletic testing numbers were in his dynasty prospect profile, "We’re talking about the fifth-best RAS score out of 3,188 WRs from 1987 to 2024 here".
That's elite.
However, landing spots do matter and the Colts are an interesting spot. Let's start with the QB position. Anthony Richardson only appeared in four games last season and was not afraid to run the ball at a high rate. In fact, he averaged an 18% designed rush rate across his four outings.
Tack on WR1 Michael Pittman Jr. and his recent contract extension, Josh Down who topped 700 receiving yards as a rookie, and workhorse RB Jonathan Taylor and it could get tricky for Mitchell to consistently produce for fantasy managers.
The WR Rookie Model also doesn't quite know how to feel about Mitchell as he clocks in as the WR8.
Mitchell is currently the WR46 in dynasty, which feels about right; it's just tough that his fantasy outlook in the short/medium term took a bit of a hit. Admittedly, it's not the same comparison but I'm getting Jaxon Smith-Njigba vibes from this situation. I love the player but the landing spot leaves a bit to be desired.
Kyren Williams, RB - Rams
Just as we tabbed the aforementioned Mixon as a "winner", Kyren Williams wasn't so lucky. The Rams drafted Blake Corum with the 83rd overall pick in the third round. Corum has been a fascinating case study this offseason. The 2023 national champion posted some truly elite numbers over the last three seasons.
- 2021 – 144 rushing attempts / 952 rushing yards / 141 receiving yards / 12 total TDs
- 2022 – 247 / 1,463 / 80 / 19 TDs
- 2023 – 258 / 1,245 / 117 / 28 TDs
As Jonathan Fuller noted, Corum, "...ranked 10th in the nation in missed tackles forced (73) and 11th for yards after contact (832)...He displayed great contact balance on film and has good lateral agility, which makes him tough to stop in the backfield."
Corum also scored an 8.24 #RAS out of a possible 10.00. This ranked 313 out of 1771 RBs from 1987 to 2024. Pretty impressive.
However, his smaller size (5' 8' / 205 lbs) and projected (accurately) lower draft capital pushed him down the boards for many dynasty rankers. Corum did come in at RB4 in our RB Rookie Model but again, this was an underwhelming class.
Regardless of Corum's shortcomings, he's going to cut into Williams' role in LA. Last season, Williams posted a line of 228/1,144/12 TDs on the ground with another 32/206/3 TDs through the air on 48 targets. He was the definition of a bellcow RB.
This offense will still funnel through Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, and Puka Nacua and it's more likely than not that Williams and Corum will cannibalize each other's role. It's a great football move for the Rams but one that will certainly cause Williams' current dynasty ADP of RB9 to drop significantly.
