Malik Nabers Scouting Report and Fantasy Football Outlook
Malik Nabers Scouting Report
- Underdog ADP: 28 overall (WR19), rookie WR2
- WR Super Model: 95th percentile
LSU has become quite the WR factory in recent years. Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson are the headliners these days, and before them, it was Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry who gave the Tigers a legitimate claim to the coveted “WRU” tagline.
Next up is Malik Nabers, who's spent the better part of the last two seasons racing past SEC defensive backs of all shapes and sizes. As NFL.com’s Lance Zierlein puts it: “Nabers is the next big thing coming out of LSU’s receiver room with the pure explosiveness and talent to be mentioned in the same breath as former LSU stars starring in the league today.”
You truly don’t need more than one hand to count the number of pass-catchers more productive than the homegrown talent since 2022. Here's how Nabers has ranked among 125 qualifying Power 5 WRs from 2022 to 2023:
- Pro Football Focus (PFF) receiving grade: 91.8 (No. 2)
- Passer rating when targeted: 125.7 (No. 12)
- Receiving yards: 2,585 (No. 2)
- Receiving TDs: 17 (tied for No. 8)
- Yards per route run (YPRR): 3.06 (No. 4)
- Yards per reception (YPR): 16.1 (No. 20)
- Targets per route run (TPRR): 27% (No. 21)
Malik Nabers 8 dives for a ball as the LSU Tigers take on Texas A&M in Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge, Louisiana, November 25, 2023. Photo Credit: SCOTT CLAUSE/USA TODAY Network / USA TODAY NETWORK
The numbers and eye test both tell the same story here: Nabers is on the short list of the best non-QBs available in the 2024 NFL Draft class, and Fantasy Life’s Matthew Freedman accordingly has him projected to go sixth overall to the New York Giants in his latest mock draft.
Of course, in today’s day and age, it’s not good enough to simply appreciate Nabers as a bonafide baller; we need to tear each other apart when evaluating if the 20-year-old talent really has a case to be considered the WR1 ahead of Ohio State WR Marvin Harrison Jr.
Does Nabers really have a case, or is this simply another classic example of prospect fatigue? Let's dive in.
Pros and Cons of Malik Nabers
Pros
Hot, nasty, badass speed
This feature pops off the tape in all facets of Nabers’s game, and he accordingly led all of college football with 34 catches of 20-plus yards in 2023. Per PFF:
“Nabers' movement skills are rare, even at the NFL level. His ability to change direction yet continue to accelerate makes him an open-target specialist in the slot and on the outside. He has the kind of athleticism that demands a defense to know where he is at all times as a future WR1.”
The double moves that he put on film were particularly mesmerizing. Having this sort of stop-start ability and deep speed is simply not fair.
Many have critiqued Jayden Daniels as a bit of a one-trick pony because of the constant dosage of slot fades to Nabers and fellow stud WR Brian Thomas Jr., but can you really blame Daniels for taking those shots when he had this sort of firepower to work with? College football’s reigning No. 1 ranked scoring unit (45.5 points per game!) didn’t need to get overly tricky thanks to the ever-present reality that speed kills – and they had more of it than any offense in the land.
Of course, Nabers didn’t just demonstrate his high-level explosiveness as a deep-ball merchant and explosive route-runner. Low average depth of target (aDOT) designed touches to simply get the football in his hands also proved to be a damn good way to create chunk plays.
Electric with the football in his hands
Pursuit angles are rarely what they seem to be when Nabers gets the football. His ability to go from zero to 100 in the blink of an eye upon securing the catch is the No. 1 feature that gives credence to the idea that he might be the best WR in this loaded 2024 rookie class.
And the man was doing it against SEC defenders! As The Athletic’s Dane Brugler puts it:
“He also can win underneath as a snatch-and-run target and will continue to ascend as he develops his finishing skills and route discipline. There isn’t a wide gap between Harrison and Nabers for the WR1 spot.”
Tigers reciever Malik Nabers 8 runs the ball as the LSU Tigers take on Georgia State in Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge, Louisiana, November 18, 2023. Photo Credit: SCOTT CLAUSE/USA TODAY Network / USA TODAY NETWORK
It’s easy to see this speed and athleticism all over Nabers’s tape, but he backed things up by running a blistering 4.35 40-yard dash and putting up a 42-inch vertical at LSU’s Pro Day. While Nabers is certainly more than adept at simply running away from defenders, his joy-stick movement skillz in the open field are arguably just as dangerous.
One of just four Power 5 WRs to force at least 30 missed tackles in 2023 per PFF, Nabers’s YAC mixtape is on another level than pretty much any other WR in the class. It's also an area where Nabers has a clear case over Harrison. Just look at the total missed tackles forced from the consensus top three WRs in 2023.
- Malik Nabers: 30
- Rome Odunze: 15
- Marvin Harrison: 5
My favorite comp for Nabers thus far is “Kadarius Toney but only his highlight-reel plays and not the drops”. It might sound like a dig at Nabers, but I cannot stress enough how much of a compliment it actually is. Others have also comped Nabers to stud WRs like Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase and D.J. Moore primarily due to his objectively elite movement ability.
Cons
A lot of his production came from the slot
Standing at 6’0 and 199 lbs., Nabers is hardly a pint-sized slot merchant incapable of winning on the outside, but he certainly was consistently put in friendly matchups against overmatched nickelbacks throughout his time at LSU.
Yahoo’s Nate Tice did a good job breaking this down:
“Nabers did align in the slot on more than half of his snaps in college (54.7%), which causes some hesitation with how he will hold up in a more full-time outside role. Was that just to fully unlock him, or hide any deficiencies against more physical cornerbacks? His firepower is more than worth any alignment limitations, but it is worth noting.”
This is the biggest potential on-field red flag: Both Harrison Jr. (6’3, 205 lbs.) and Odunze (6’3, 212 lbs.) have more prototypical WR1 size to thrive on the outside at the next level. It's possible that Nabers could be slowed down by physicality at the line of scrimmage at the NFL level, as it's not something he had to face that often playing out of the friendly confines of the slot at LSU.
Reportedly has off-field questions
I’m hesitant to put much (any) weight behind this potential con because these sorts of “reports” are commonplace around this time of the year with the NFL Draft looming.
That said, NFL Draft Analyst Tony Pauline noted that Nabers has been called a “high maintenance” prospect:
“There are off-the-field questions Nabers has had to answer during the draft process, and teams must feel comfortable with those answers if they’re going to invest an early draft pick and millions of dollars in his services.”
Mar 1, 2024; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Louisiana State wide receiver Malik Nabers (WO21) talks to the media during the 2024 NFL Combine at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports
Here was his response to that “report”: “You know they gotta pick somebody in this draft. I guess they just pick me.”
I’d be a lot more willing to put stock behind this alleged issue if any of the bigger draft media names were behind the rumors, but that hasn't been the case so far. Bleacher Report’s Jordan Schultz recently echoed this sentiment.
Of course, NFL teams need to do their due diligence on any prospect, particularly one who's projected to be drafted as early as Nabers. That said, any potential off-field questions for Nabers seem more like irresponsible speculation as of now rather than a significant concern.
Fantasy Football Outlook for Malik Nabers
So what’s the verdict? Does Nabers deserve to be in the same conversation as Harrison this year? Or is this another case of the world simply getting tired of praising the same consensus WR1 for the better part of the last two years?
I tend to lean toward there being a case for Nabers mostly because we have loads of evidence that NFL teams are legitimately split on the matter, as reported by a number of the NFL Draft’s most plugged-in analysts and reporters:
- ESPN’s Adam Schefter: There are some NFL personnel men who believe Malik Nabers is this draft class’ top wideout.
- The Athletic’s Dane Brugler: 100% true. Nabers has been viewed as WR1 for several teams since the season. And that says more about Nabers than anything else - he's a special talent.
- NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah: I wouldn't be shocked if Nabers ended up being the 1st WR off the board. I love MHJ and Odunze but Nabers brings a different element. It'll come down to preference of style but I guarantee some teams will have Nabers at the top of the list.
- NFL.com’s Lance Zierlein: I have Nabers WR1. There are plenty of NFL teams that have it that way too. There are drastic differences in how teams are rating the top three receivers. I promise you on my kids' lives. It is not some clean Sweep for Marvin Harrison Jr.. It’s close.
Fantasy Life’s Dwain McFarland’s WR Rookie Super Model tells a similar story, noting that “these two players are closer than many want to believe". Dwain even has Nabers as the No. 3 highest-graded prospect since 2018!
Ultimately, I still give Harrison a slight edge with the likelihood that he could land with either the Cardinals or Chargers, both of whom have proven franchise QBs and could provide true No. 1 target volume. However, I wouldn't be averse to reconsidering my ranking of Harrison and Nabers if Nabers were to be drafted first and to a better destination.
As of now though, my final verdict is Harrison as my 1A in this 2024 rookie class and Nabers as my 1B among WRs. They are indeed in the same tier, and landing spot and draft capital will be the ultimate tie-breaker. It's also worth mentioning that the only rookie I would draft ahead of either Harrison or Nabers in superflex or 2QB dynasty formats would be Caleb Williams.
