1.03 Draft Strategy for 2025 Fantasy Football: Bijan Robinson Is The Perfect Building Block
Chris Allen breaks down the ideal draft strategies for those of you drafting from the 1.03 position in your 2025 fantasy football drafts.
So, I finally sat down and listened to the new Clipse album.
First, we can debate whether the duo of Pusha T and Malice is known as “Clipse” or “The Clipse.” All I know is I was banging out the beat to ‘Grindin’ on my steering wheel back in ’02. To be clear, my hesitancy wasn’t due to my concern that their lyrical ability would decline. Please, go listen to their Tiny Desk performance. It was us.
The rollout for “Let God Sort Em Out” was like a social media tidal wave. I’ve shared memes of Malice in my family group chat. Meanwhile, I’ve had little to no idea what to expect out of the record. The #algorithm has told me it’s good. But clips of Clipse weren’t enough.
Having the 1.03 feels the same to me. From all the mock drafts I’ve been in or seen, the options are amazing. However, just like the first time I sat down to listen to M.T.B.T.T.F., the experience and understanding of the track made me appreciate it even more.
For all 12 of my pick-specific strategy pieces, see below:
Before we jump into the draft strategy from the 1.03 position in fantasy football, a quick reminder that you can test strategy from any draft position with any roster build strategy in our free Draft Champion fantasy football mock draft simulator!
The First Round From The 1.03 Fantasy Draft Position
Part of the joy of having the third pick is that you can figure out what your options will be in no time. But let’s play it out.
Ja’Marr Chase at the 1.01 is a no-brainer. His target shares, aDOT, and ability to create after the catch at least suggest he can still compete for the overall WR1 after a historic campaign. Plus, it’s not like the Bengals’ defense will give him or Joe Burrow much of a choice. Anyway, that’s one of the top skill players off the board. Typically, the 1.02 takes the second guy.
Saquon Barkley’s only downside is the shadow of Father Time behind him. Barkley is 28 years old, coming off a season with 482 touches. To contextualize that number, Kyren Williams, the next closest runner, had 389. The gap from first to second is the same as second to 13th. Despite the potential for a decline in production after a heavy workload, there’s no competition for work in the Eagles’ backfield, and their offensive line is one of the best in the league. I won’t fight you for taking him second. It leaves me the chance to grab a rusher with similar upside.
The funny thing is, you could switch the order of these three guys, and my reaction time to click “Draft” doesn’t change. Like the Clipse album, the hype matches the talent. You don’t have to sell me on any of them. Their names are like track titles. And all we have to do is sit back and listen to the music.
The bull case for Bijan Robinson is simple. Of the 16 RBs with a 50.0%+ share of their team’s rushing attempts last season, Robinson had the second-highest target share (13.4%). It’s fair to think of his ’24 production as lesser than Barkley’s. It’s not like the Falcons’ RB1 was hopping over people backwards. But his underlying metrics still compare well to last year’s OPOY.
- Success Rate: 55.6% (Robinson), 49.0% (Barkley)
- Forced Missed Tackle Rate: 23.0%, 18.0%
- Yards per Route Run: 1.12, 0.95
So, I’m going to try something different. Let’s build around one player. Typically, I’ll look at various options and strategies to create a multiverse. Instead, Robinson provides the perfect backdrop for investing in other positions: the onesies.
- Multiverse 1: Bijan Robinson, Early QB
- Multiverse 2: Bijan Robinson, Late-Round QB
- Multiverse 3: Bijan Robinson, Early QB and TE
Even with the projected workload, Robinson’s situation carries the most uncertainty. We only saw three games of Michael Penix. Accordingly, drafters may forego high-end QBs or TEs to buttress their first-round pick. Or, if you believe the Falcons found their franchise QB, swinging for the fences might yield you a championship roster.
The Rest of the Early Rounds From The 1.03 Draft Position
Taking the ‘Early QB’ is only a question of when. Yes, there are about six passers with an ADP within the first six rounds. But your risk tolerance will dictate how soon you take the plunge. For instance, as I was building my ‘Late-Round QB’ team, I couldn’t help but notice the level of aggression toward the mobile QBs by the bots.
Three QBs in the second round feels like a blast from the past. But the dual production from Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels, and Josh Allen is hard to dismiss. I was lucky enough to grab Allen in the fourth, but I wanted to talk through a situation you might find yourself in when drafting from the three-hole.
Remember, I already had Bijan Robinson. I intentionally passed on Drake London to grab my elite TE target in Trey McBride. I figured London wouldn’t make it back to me anyway. But our fantasy football mock draft simulator had other plans.
In this scenario, I’m less concerned with starting two Falcons. Sure, I’m indirectly tying myself to Michael Penix. However, my other options were Tee Higgins and Tyreek Hill. It was a three-way coin flip (I’m not sure that’s a thing, but roll with it). Ultimately, I let our fantasy football projections break the tie:
- London: 133.5 (target projection)
- Hill: 132
- Higgins: 119.5
At cost, the Atlanta pair does strain credibility. For one to succeed, the other can’t. But London’s slide to the third, while securing McBride, softens some of the risk. In practice, I’d likely lean toward Hill (similar target projection, higher ceiling), but at least talking through the situation might help you figure out how you’d deal with it. Anyway, outside of the Falcons fiasco, the rest of the early rounds were a breeze.
The ‘Early QB’ is the favorite through six rounds. I was hesitant to claim Jaxon Smith-Njigba as my WR1. His ascension into the primary pass-catching role doesn’t outweigh the uncertainty surrounding Seattle’s new play-caller and QB. However, pairing JSN with Davante Adams helps mitigate some of the volatility. Plus, tacking on Kenneth Walker as my RB2 secured my core heading into the middle rounds.
Walker posted a 39.9% forced missed tackle rate in 2024. It’s the highest rate of any RB since 2015. And while there’s no analytical connection to fantasy points, a rusher’s ability to evade defenders does correlate to a metric we can translate into production.
While the Seahawks’ aerial attack might worry me, their switch to a wide zone blocking scheme for running the ball doesn’t. And by adding someone with Walker’s profile, I had one less position of need heading into the middle rounds.
Mid-Round Approach With The 1.03 Fantasy Draft Strategy
Since I already had objectives for the first six rounds (e.g., early QB, early TE, etc.), I didn’t have to adhere to my usual targets. But now that we’re in the middle rounds, let’s review my guardrails for the mid-rounds.
- Assess roster needs.
- Address the onesies.
- Add depth.
The first one is critical. An extreme example is you wouldn’t open a draft with seven consecutive WRs. Yes, even you Zero RB sickos wouldn’t do that. At some point, you’d realize the need for at least a QB or TE. So, let’s evaluate Team 3’s roster.
- No need for a QB or TE as I already had Brock Bowers and Bo Nix.
- I only had one RB, so I’d need an RB2.
- My WRs (McConkey, Worthy, and Williams) were solid, but I’d need another rotational starter and depth.
By going through this exercise, you shouldn’t be scrambling by the time you get on the clock. There might be some waffling over a couple of players. But even narrowing the scope makes roster building easier. However, this phase of the draft adds some complexity.
I used last season as a proxy, but the expectation for production flattens for the core positions once we get out to the middle rounds. Said another way, we’re less certain about each player’s workload or situation. Typically, there’s a specific scenario or role they play that we’re banking on for fantasy. I’ll give a few examples.
- Brian Robinson (ESPN ADP - 104.6): Could be the goal-line back, but loses rush volume to Jayden Daniels and targets to Austin Ekeler.
- Jaylen Warren (109.6) – Immediately placed behind an RB with Day 2 draft capital.
- Michael Pittman (124.9): Catching passes from either Anthony Richardson or Daniel Jones.
Every player has their warts. We just need to weigh each of them to determine the cost-benefit. For Team 3, I needed an RB2. But not just any RB2. My roster required a rusher with a weekly touch floor. Someone I could count on for about ten points a week. My three RBs to round out the middle rounds hit that mark with a couple of upside bets in there, too.
- TreVeyon Henderson – has pass-catching upside; will split time with Rhamondre Stevenson.
- Najee Harris – (assuming health) will work behind Omarion Hampton.
- Tyjae Spears – has pass-catching and third-down viability.
The path for Henderson to overtake the backfield isn’t hard to see. However, the Patriots’ offense may be the limiting factor. Spears shares a similar situation, but has shown the ability to carry a larger workload in Tony Pollard’s absence. With the strength of my other positions, I could rotate those three while banking on the top-end production from Robinson. Either way, I’d have to make some additional swings in the late round.
Team 2 is my favorite. I’ll hear the argument for swapping out London for Hill or Higgins (preferably Hill). Otherwise, I’d take that roster into battle any day. That squad has Week 1 volume from the vets or Day 1 or Day 2 rookies. Plus, there are paths to guys like Tank Bigsby and Josh Downs outkicking their ADP. However, even if you disagree with the names, I’ve at least laid out a process for you to construct a similar juggernaut on your own.
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