ADP Risers in Fantasy Football: Alvin Kamara Climbs, Fernando Mendoza Tumbles

NFL training camps are officially underway, and we’ve already gotten our first big wave of news. That has unsurprisingly had an impact on fantasy football ADPs, and we should continue to see more movement over the next month.

Let’s dive into some of the biggest winners and losers over the past seven days using our ADP tool.

Risers in Fantasy Football ADP

Alvin Kamara | NO | RB (+8.0 spots)

For the second straight week, Alvin Kamara is one of the biggest risers on Underdog. His ADP is up another eight spots, getting him to 166.2.

I’m not going to rehash all the things I said about Kamara last week, but there’s definitely still a bit of room for his ADP to rise. He has a consensus ADP of 146.5 across the entire fantasy landscape, and he’s as high as 130.1 on Yahoo. We have Kamara at No. 140 overall in our fantasy football rankings, and two of our experts have him inside the top 120. If you haven’t taken advantage of Kamara’s price tag up until this point, it’s time to strike while you still can.

Matthew Berry's Draft Day Manifesto

Jonathon Brooks | CAR | RB (+2.6 spots)

The drumbeat is steadily building for Jonathon Brooks in Carolina. The Panthers let Rico Dowdle walk this offseason, in part because they believe in Brooks’ ability. He’s missed most of his first two professional seasons due to injury, but he was the first RB selected in the 2024 NFL Draft. He was an awesome player in college, averaging 6.2 yards per carry at Texas, and he had 25 rushing touchdowns in just 11 games in his final collegiate season.

Brooks will reportedly have “no limitations” during training camp, so he appears to be fully healthy entering his third season. He’s expected to force a committee with Chuba Hubbard at running back, and it should surprise no one if he eventually overtakes Hubbard in the pecking order.

Brooks’ ADP is only going to continue to rise, and he has excellent upside for where he’s coming off the board. He’s going nearly 20 picks later than Hubbard on Underdog, making him the clear player to target in this backfield.

Malik Nabers | NYG | WR (+1.7 spots)

Most of the offseason news involving Malik Nabers has ranged from bad to terrifying. However, we got some good news to start Giants’ camp. Nabers was able to avoid the reserve/PUP list, which means there is at least a chance that he’s ready to go in Week 1. At a minimum, he should be able to return at some point in the first four weeks.

When Nabers has been healthy, he’s had some of the best utilization in the entire NFL. He led all players with a 35% target share as a rookie, and he also had a 46% air yards share and 45% end-zone share. Those are WR1 numbers, so Nabers is still available at a slight discount if healthy.

That said, we still have to see how Nabers adjusts to life alongside Jaxson Dart. Dart was a clear work in progress as a passer last season, but quarterbacks tend to make their biggest statistical leaps between their first and second years. Nabers clearly offers some downside at his current ADP, but he’s also starting to show a bit of upside.

Fallers in Fantasy Football ADP

Cooper Kupp | SEA | WR (-3.6 spots)

Cooper Kupp was once one of the most feared receivers in football, but Father Time is undefeated. He just turned 33 years old and has shown some clear signs of decline in recent years.

His first year in Seattle was a bit of a mixed bag. He had some big catches for the team during their Super Bowl run, but he was merely 56th at wide receiver in terms of 0.5-PPR scoring during the regular season. Jaxon Smith-Njigba was the clear focal point of the Seahawks’ passing attack, leading the league with a 35% target share.

Now another year older, Kupp will also have to deal with additional competition for targets. The team made bringing back Rashid Shaheed a priority, while Tory Horton could be a bigger factor in his second season. Kupp is extremely affordable (207.5 ADP), but it’s hard to justify drafting him in anything other than Seahawks’ stacks.

Matthew Berry's Fantasy Football Rankings

Fernando Mendoza | LV | QB (-2.8 spots)

Fernando Mendoza was in the news this week after officially signing his rookie contract with the Raiders. He is eventually going to take over as the team’s starting quarterback, and the team hopes it will be for the next decade-plus.

Unfortunately, it may not happen right out of the gates. The Raiders also brought in Kirk Cousins this offseason, and the veteran could start the year as the team’s top quarterback. He took all the first-team reps during OTAs, and Mendoza will only be “sprinkled” into first-team reps during training camp.

It’s possible that Mendoza is able to usurp Cousins quicker than expected, and he should be the guy getting the reps by the back half of the year. Still, it makes Mendoza one of the weakest QB options on Underdog. If you choose to target him, you’re likely going to have to survive the early weeks with your other options at the position.

MarShawn Lloyd | GB | RB (-2.2 spots)

MarShawn Lloyd has been an intriguing backup RB target for most of the offseason. Josh Jacobs was arrested this offseason on disturbing allegations, but the DA declined to file charges. While that could still happen, it’s looking less and less likely that Jacobs will face any sort of disciplinary action this season.

Jacobs was officially present at OTAs, and as long as he’s available, he’s going to be the Packers’ clear-cut No. 1 option. Lloyd would still have some contingent upside in that scenario, but he hasn’t exactly been the picture of health throughout his NFL career. There are some reasons for optimism here—particularly with Emanuel Wilson departing this offseason—but the path to relevance with Jacobs in the picture is murky.