Brandon Aiyuk Trust Meter: Avoid Drafting Him In Fantasy Football?

I’ve mostly tried to avoid discussing this Brandon Aiyuk situation.

It’s messy, there are a ton of moving parts, and it’s hard to know what’s real and what’s performance art.

Cooterdoodle put it well last week—these are cartoon-level antics coming from Aiyuk on a nearly daily basis.

But considering Aiyuk is still regularly getting selected in drafts—his ADP is at least finally falling—he is technically a “fantasy-relevant” player who should be discussed.

ICYMI, the latest from Aiyuk includes him:

• Unfollowing Commanders QB Jayden Daniels on Instagram, seemingly indicating that the long-rumored trade to Washington is not on the table anymore.
• Posting on Instagram that he won’t be filing for reinstatement because he doesn’t want to do business with the team. Unfortunately for him, the 49ers can leave him on the “left squad list” for as long as he does this.

As a best ball bro who is drafting a lot of teams right now, Aiyuk is completely off my board. There’s just no point to take on the risk of a guy who is trending to be a zero when you can take swings on mystery box rookies (Antonio Williams, Ted Hurst, Chris Brazzel, etc.) or on proven veterans who are actually going to play (Cooper Kupp, Darnell Mooney, etc.).

I will say, though, that Aiyuk is still fine as a redraft target … for now. With redraft, you can always cut bait and toss him back to the waivers if he continues on this Wile E. Coyote trajectory.

On the oft-chance he stops jestermaxxing and finds a new team, you might enjoy some value from a late-round WR dart.

But let’s call a spade a spade … the former is far more likely than the latter.

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Two Second-Year Standouts, Who Do You Draft?

Luther Burden and Emeka Egbuka both check a lot of the same boxes this season. They’re both entering their second professional seasons, and both players are poised for bigger roles as sophomores. The Bears will need to replace DJ Moore’s production, while the Buccaneers will need to replace Mike Evans’.

Both Burden and Egubka also showed flashes as rookies. Egbuka came out of the gates red hot, while Burden emerged down the stretch. Both players are currently being drafted in a similar range, and they’re separated by just four spots in our consensus WR fantasy football rankings.

That said, if you can only have one, which player are you choosing? Let’s make the case for each player before delivering our final verdict.

🐻 The Case For Luther Burden

Burden started his first season like many rookies, patiently waiting for a chance to make an impact. Through the first 10 weeks of the season, he was more of a specialist than a regular receiver. He had just a 28% route participation, and he earned just a 7% target share. That said, he was targeted on 22% of his routes run, so he was frequently utilized when he was actually on the field.

From Week 11 on, Burden was a much more regular part of the equation. His route participation jumped to 61%, while his target share climbed to 18%. The larger workload didn’t reduce his per-route involvement, either, with his targets per route run sticking at 24%.

With the larger workload, Burden turned in some very useful fantasy performances. He finished as a top-36 PPR WR in five of his final seven regular-season contests, including a massive WR1 performance in Week 17.

Burden’s final counting stats don’t exactly jump off the page. He had just 689 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns, which is not much considering where he is coming off the board in fantasy drafts. However, his efficiency tells a different story. He averaged 2.71 yards per route run, which was the third-best mark among receivers with at least 100 routes last season. Only Puka Nacua and Jaxon Smith-Njigba were better, and they were the unquestioned top two receivers in fantasy.

If Burden can maintain that efficiency with a much larger workload, the sky is the limit. He has drawn rave reviews throughout the offseason, and if the Bears’ offense takes another step forward in Ben Johnson’s second season, Burden could be poised for a big year.

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