Fantasy Football Mailbag: Egbuka or Waddle Rest-of-Season?
Sam Wallace answers mailbag questions from the Fantasy Life community, including whether to value Emeka Egbuka or Jaylen Waddle higher rest-of-season.
With eight weeks of the fantasy football season in the rearview mirror, I polled our Fantasy Life Community Discord for their most pressing questions. Here are some of the highlights, as well as how they might impact you and your rosters in the coming weeks and months.
Who do you prefer for the rest of the season - Emeka Egbuka or Jaylen Waddle?
To answer this question, I went right to our Guillotine League rest-of-season rankings that have been updated ahead of this upcoming weekend. These rankings are different from weekly rankings because they assume you are drafting a new team right now for the remainder of the season.
Here's where our own Matthew Freedman ranked Emeka Egbuka and Jaylen Waddle:
- Egbuka - WR11
- Waddle - WR22
This makes answering our first question relatively easy. After scoring five TDs in his first five games, Egbuka has cooled off in recent weeks, but his target share remains strong. Toss in the loss of Mike Evans for the remainder of the season, and he has a clear path to dominating targets on an offense averaging almost 25 points per game.
There's a similarly strong case to be made for Waddle. The loss of the presumptive No. 1 WR option for the season (Tyreek Hill) has opened the door for him to dominate targets moving forward. However, there's a clear drop-off in QB play when you go from Baker Mayfield (QB9) to Tua Tagovailoa (QB18).
I like both options, and could even make a case that Waddle should be ranked higher than WR22 for the rest of the season, but I agree with our rankings and would take Egbuka.
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What are the 2 offenses you are buying for the rest of the season? What 2 offenses are you selling?
As I look across the NFL landscape, it's hard to get excited about any team under .500 right now. So, with that in mind, I'll highlight two offenses led by Year 2 QBs - Denver and New England.
Drake Maye (QB2) and Bo Nix (QB5) have their respective teams rolling as we enter the midway point of the season. Excellent head coaching and strong organizations have laid a great foundation for these sophomores to take quantum leaps in their second season. Let's take a closer look at the numbers:
Maye has already matched his passing TD (15) and rushing TD (2) marks from a year ago in five fewer games and is on the verge of topping his passing yardage mark from last season. Despite the lack of well-known playmakers, his fantasy value is buoyed by his rushing ability.
As for Nix, he also has 15 TDs through eight games and has a plethora of talented pass-catchers at his disposal. He also has three rushing TDs and is showing no signs of slowing down with Sean Payton at the helm.
On the other end of the offensive spectrum, I'm not all that excited about the Jets and the Browns. Yes, there are fantasy-relevant options that can be found on those teams, but overall poor QB play and generally low offensive output make them teams I'm avoiding.
Who is on the short list of players you'd overpay for in a trade?
Incoming homer pick, but I'm all in (and would overpay for) Tucker Kraft. The Packers' third-year TE has taken the league by storm and is currently the TE1 on the season.
Yes, the Packers have a propensity for spreading the ball around and have become infamously known for not having a true No. 1 option at WR. However, the top option appears to be this generation's version of George Kittle.
On national TV last week, Kraft torched the once-vaunted Steelers' defense in Pittsburgh to the tune of 7/143/2 on nine targets. The return of Christian Watson to the lineup may even provide a boost for Kraft as it opens up the middle of the field.
As a small anecdote, I tend to play mostly in TE Premium leagues, which provide an added scoring bonus to TEs, usually in the form of an extra 0.5 or 1.0 point per reception. That makes securing these elite TEs even more valuable for your fantasy roster.
Kraft is well on his way to having a true breakout season as he cements himself among the top options at his position. Even if it requires an overpay, I have no problem spending up to land him on my roster.
I would love to know how stars affect lineup balance with regard to floor/ceiling.
I love when I get asked questions like this because roster construction and overall fantasy game theory are some of my favorite topics to discuss.
Range of outcomes is a term that many fantasy players have likely heard. In short, it helps explain how likely a player is to score a certain number of points. As an example, if there's an RB who is projected to have a sizable workload, the likelihood of that player having a terrible game is lower since there's opportunity baked in.
Star players are in their own stratosphere; their range of outcomes is not the same as it is for mere mortal players. Let's use Puka Nacua as an example.
Over his first five games, he was averaging over 12 targets per game. I could essentially pencil him in for 20 fantasy points at that rate. That meant I could make other decisions elsewhere along my roster. If I have a player I "know" will garner me a set number of points, I can take bigger swings elsewhere.
A lot also depends on my weekly matchup. If I'm projected to win or it's projected to be a close match, I want to minimize risk and make the safest plays I can. If I'm projected to lose, I am more willing to take bigger swings in hopes of capturing some high-end range-of-outcomes upside.
These types of roster decisions unlock a new layer of playing fantasy football that I genuinely enjoy. Don't hesitate to reach out and ask more questions!
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