Fantasy Football Predictions Using Week 9 Betting Market Data
Fantasy

Fantasy Football Predictions Using Week 9 Betting Market Data

Matt LaMarca breaks down three fantasy football predictions for the Week 9 slate based on what sharp money is doing in the betting market.

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One of my favorite parts about fantasy football is that we’re allowed to cheat off the smart kids in class. Fantasy may feel like a huge game, but it’s nothing compared to the amount of money exchanged at the sportsbook each week.

The good news for fantasy is that we can use the betting data to make some informed decisions. When the sharp bettors have a position on a certain game, we can adjust our rankings accordingly.

That’s the purpose of this piece. Each week, I’m going to dive into some of the data available in the betting space to highlight a few spots that could be overlooked by the general fantasy public. Let’s dive right in.

Week 9 Fantasy Football Predictions Leveraging Betting Market Data

NE_patriots-logo.svgThe Patriots Offense Is Legit

New England entered the year with big expectations. Drake Maye was entering his third season after finishing second in MVP voting as a sophomore. They added a legit WR1 in A.J. Brown. TreVeyon Henderson could take on a larger role in the backfield.

While Brown and Henderson haven’t helped nearly as much as expected, the Pats’ offense has still been a wagon in recent weeks. They threw everyone off the scent with a dismal first three games, but they’re up to No. 1 in EPA per play offensively since Week 4. Maye has averaged more than 28 fantasy points per game during that stretch, trailing only Joe Burrow at quarterback.

Bettors are starting to take notice of New England. They have a tough matchup on paper vs. the Packers, who have been a strong defensive team of late. But this game is still seeing clear support toward the over: 60% of the bets and 78% of the dollars have landed on that side. The Patriots have also been a sharp target, pushing them up to 3.5-point home favorites. They’re ultimately expected to carry most of the scoring in this matchup.

Maye remains an elite option at QB, while the rest of the viable fantasy targets will depend on the injury report. If Brown is forced to miss another contest, it could be another week where guys like DeMario Douglas and Kyle Williams provide value. Henderson should be back after missing last week’s contest with an illness, but Stevenson still looks like a solid RB2: he’s currently the No. 19 RB in our Week 9 consensus fantasy football rankings.

BUF_bills-logo.svgCan Someone Finally Slow Down the Bills?

Last week’s Bills-Ravens showdown didn’t live up to expectations. Lamar Jackson suffered an injury on his first dropback, and backup Tyler Huntley also suffered a season-ending turf toe injury. It left the team with their third-string QB, and he had no chance in that contest.

That said, the Bills held up their end of the bargain. They racked up 36 points, and they rank first in the league in points scored this season. They’re No. 2 in yardage, so this has undoubtedly been one of the best offenses in football. Josh Allen could be poised to take home his second MVP trophy in the past three seasons.

However, the Bills are going to face their stiffest test of the season this week vs. the Vikings. Their defense has been the strength of their team, propelling them to a 6-1 record. Minnesota managed to slow down a similarly explosive Lions offense last week, holding them to just 19 points.

The Bills ultimately rank first in EPA per play for the year, but it’s hard to get too excited about their prospects in this matchup. Allen and James Cook remain slam-dunk starts, but everyone else should be viewed with trepidation. There has been plenty of sharp action on the under in this contest, pushing the total all the way down to 44.5.

DET_lions-logo.svgPoints Galore in Lions-Dolphins

Speaking of the Lions, their defense has looked significantly improved following their Week 6 bye. They’ve put together back-to-back quality performances vs. the Packers and Vikings, limiting those teams to 17 and 15 points, respectively. Overall, there have been 37 total points or fewer in both of those contests after five straight games with at least 55 total points to start the year.

The total for this week’s matchup vs. the Dolphins currently sits at 50.5 points, which is one of the highest of the week. It’s tempting to say that this number is too high based on what we’ve seen from the Lions’ defense of late. However, the sharps don’t seem to agree. They’re seeing value with the over, which has received 72% of the dollars on just 46% of the bets. That means that the significant money is coming in on that side.

While the Lions are expected to carry the scoring, the Dolphins’ offense has shown some improvement of late. They’ve averaged 23.7 points over their previous three contests after averaging just 11.5 across their first four. Ollie Gordon has run the football well, while Malik Willis and his unheralded group of pass catchers have also provided some value.

This is one of the few games this week where the sharps are expecting a bunch of scoring. All of the usual characters are in play for the Lions, while the Dolphins could be an interesting target for bye-week fill-ins. Guys like Caleb Douglas and Malik Washington are viable WR3s or flexes, while you could do worse than Greg Dulcich at tight end.

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