TE Rankings Downgrades For Week 9 Fantasy Football

Let's get into the Week 9 TE rankings edition of Freedman's Fades, where I highlight guys I'm downgrading because of …

Unfavorable betting factors and situational spots
Disadvantageous defensive matchups (perhaps amplified by offensive injury)
Decreased usage expectations (again, maybe exacerbated by offensive injury)

For process notes regarding this series, see the end of this piece. Also, check out the rest of my Week 9 favorites and fades.

TE Rankings For Week 9 (Top 12)

To access all my fantasy football rankings, my weekly written content, our Fantasy HQ League Hub, our weekly player projections, and my personal NFL Game Model, use the promo code FREEDMAN for a 10% discount on the FantasyLife+ package.

Rank	Player
1	Brock Bowers
2	George Kittle
3	Trey McBride
4	Colston Loveland
5	Sam LaPorta
6	Harold Fannin
7	Isaiah Likely
8	Tucker Kraft
9	Tyler Warren
10	T.J. Hockenson
11	Dallas Goedert
12	Travis Kelce

Week 9 Matchup Downgrades in My TE Rankings: Dalton Kincaid at Vikings & Chig Okonkwo vs. Rams

There are a few "reverse flow chart" defenses so good that they serve as automatic downgrades to whatever TEs they face. If a guy is playing one of them, I aggressively move him down my ranks. If not, I carry on.

Based on the numbers I see in our Fantasy Football DvP (Defense vs. Position) Matrix, as well as RBs Don't Matter and FTN, the Vikings and Rams are two of the biggest reverse flow chart defenses for TEs.

Vikings: No. 1 in fewest fantasy points allowed to TEs (5.5)
Rams: No. 1 in smallest fantasy boost allowed to TEs (-5.6)

Here be dragons.

Dalton Kincaid (Bills) at Vikings: Last week I highlighted Kincaid as a fantasy favorite, and in his first game off the Week 7 bye, he delivered (16.6 fantasy points, 4-86-1 receiving, 6 targets, 88 Utilization Score, per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report). But we've seen this before: He was electric in Weeks 1-2 (17.3 fantasy points per game, 12-225-1 receiving, 14 targets) and then a dumpster fire in Weeks 3-6 (3.6 fantasy points per game, 11-90-0 receiving, 15 targets). He still doesn't play much (66% route rate), and for his career he has been worse on the road (6.2 fantasy points per game, 39.7 yards, 0.04 TDs vs. 8.9, 47.2, 0.40 otherwise). The Vikings have the No. 4 HFA over the past 16 games (+6.69, per NFElo), and it's fully amplified because they're outside division and conference, on turf (vs. grass), and indoors (vs. outdoors). Plus, this will be their third week out of the past four not on the road. Kincaid is a boom/bust specialist with three games this year of at least 15.5 fantasy points and four games with no more than 7.5. Given the matchup and circumstances, this feels like a bust spot.

Chig Okonkwo (Commanders) vs. Rams: Since returning from injury in Week 4, Okonkwo has been modest (5.5 fantasy points per game, 15-166-0 receiving, 21 targets), and he did little last week off the bye (2.2 fantasy points, 2-32-0 receiving, 4 targets), but he at least still had a full workload in Week 8 (82% route rate, 23% air yard share, 50% end-zone target share). With No. 1 WR Terry McLaurin (knee, IR) out, Okonkwo should keep getting opportunities, and the Commanders are in a good spot: This is their second straight game at home and their fifth week out of seven not on the road. On top of that, they have a boosted HFA because they're outside division, on grass (vs. turf), and outdoors (vs. indoors), and the Rams are traveling across the country for an early 1 pm ET kickoff. But the matchup is still enough to make me skeptical: The Rams are No. 1 in defensive pass DVOA vs. TEs (-54.1%).

Scoring Downgrades in My Week 9 TE Rankings: Mark Andrews vs. Jaguars & Trey McBride at Seahawks

Sometimes downgrades are as simple as: "This team isn't going to score as many points as it usually does, so I need to push down the TEs."

This week the Ravens are No. 29 in implied team total (17.5 points), and the Cardinals are No. 30 (16.5).

Downgrades warranted.

Mark Andrews (Ravens) vs. Jaguars: Andrews has been at his best this season with QB Lamar Jackson (7.5 fantasy points per game, 18-149-1 receiving, 24 targets in Weeks 1-4), but he has done almost nothing since (2.6 fantasy points per game, 11-69-0 receiving, 17 targets). Jackson (thumb, previously ankle) exited Week 4 early, missed the next three games, and then suffered a potentially season-ending injury on his first snap of Week 8 … and No. 2 QB Tyler Huntley (toe) also suffered an injury last week, so the Ravens could be rolling with undrafted rookie third-stringer Joe Fagnano. On top of that, they could also be without LG John Simpson (back), RG Olaivavega Ioane (knee), and RT Roger Rosengarten (ankle). For his career he has been worse in games Jackson hasn't started (7.5 fantasy points per game, 44.3 yards, 0.20 TDs vs. 10.0, 48.7, 0.50 otherwise). With short time to prepare before Thursday Night Football, the Ravens are +9 dogs, and the Jags are No. 2 in defensive pass DVOA vs. TEs (-33.3%). They will be without FS Eric Murray (elbow) and maybe SS Antonio Johnson (ankle), but that probably won't matter with Fagnano throwing the ball.

Trey McBride (Cardinals) at Seahawks: McBride is the No. 1 TE in fantasy (14.7 fantasy points per game, 66-544-5 receiving, 86 targets, 97 Utilization Score), and over the past four weeks (without traded WR Marvin Harrison) he has been even better (16.2 fantasy points per game, 33-302-3 receiving, 40 targets). No. 1 WR Michael Wilson (ribs) is playing through injury, and No. 2 WR Kendrick Bourne (lower leg) is out, so McBride could see even more targets than usual, and he has done well against the Seahawks in his three games since last year (15.3 fantasy points per game, 24-220-2 receiving, 34 targets). That said, the matchup is still tough: The Seahawks are No. 4 in smallest fantasy boost allowed to TEs (-3.6). And although Gardner Minshew played well last week as a mid-game bench-to-field savior (73.9% completion rate, 10.8 AY/A), the offense could have transitional struggles now with him as the starter. Plus, it doesn't help that LT Jayden Williams (knee) and RG Jon Gaines (ankle) are injured. You're not benching McBride in Guillotine LeaguesTM this week, but you should temper your expectations.

Notes

Week 9 Favorites & Fades: Here's the full series.

Introduction
QB Favorites
QB Fades
RB Favorites
RB Fades
WR Favorites
WR Fades
TE Favorites
TE Fades

Byes: This week, the Steelers and Titans are off.

Market Odds: As of Tuesday morning.

Injuries: Since I write Freedman's Favorites on Monday and Tuesday, I have incomplete injury information. After I submit this article, any updated thoughts I have regarding injuries will manifest in my rankings. For our quick fantasy thoughts every day, subscribe to the Fantasy Life newsletter.

Schedule: This season, I have the following rankings schedule.