Week 9 Scheme Advantages & Disadvantages For Fantasy Football: Jameson Williams, Tyler Warren & More
Zain Dhanani identified the scheme advantages and disadvantages for fantasy football in Week 9.
Eight weeks of data in the books! The sample size is growing and we can confidently model what good and bad matchups look like.
Keep an eye on our fantasy football rankings and fantasy football projections, which are impacted by matchup notes like these.
Fantasy Football Matchups I Like in Week 9
Harold Fannin vs Saints Pass Defense
New Orleans plays Cover 3 on 51% of its dropbacks (most in the NFL). Fannin has averaged 2.93 yards per route against that coverage on 88 routes this season. The Saints have also generated pressure on just 29% of dropbacks, the lowest rate in the league.
Fannin scored 10+ PPR points in 5/6 games with Shedeur Sanders starting last season. He accounted for 37.5% of Cleveland's first-read targets last week, and I have him as a TE1 again (TE10).
Jonah Coleman vs Panthers Run Defense
I had Coleman in the tougher-matchup section against Kansas City last week, but I'd start him as an RB2 against Carolina. He played 67% of Denver's offensive snaps and handled 61% of its RB carries against the Chiefs, adding 4 targets. He also had nearly every touch for the RB room from the mid-point of the second quarter onward last week.
The Panthers' 11.8% stuff rate is the lowest in the NFL. They've allowed 1.61 yards before contact per carry (5th most), with Denver's A+ run blocking facing Carolina's D-grade run defense.
Jameson Williams vs Dolphins Pass Defense
I'm still looking to sell Williams after 5 TDs over his past three games, but I'm starting him as a WR2 against Miami this week. The Dolphins have allowed 0.30 EPA per dropback (most in the NFL) and send at least five rushers on just 21% of dropbacks (2nd lowest).
Williams has averaged 2.88 YPRR without a blitz over his past three games. Detroit's pass protection has an A+ in my grades against Miami's F-grade pass rush. Jared Goff should have time for Williams' deeper routes, and Detroit looked to Williams on 42.9% of its first-read targets last week.
Kyle Pitts vs Bengals TE Coverage
Cincinnati plays man coverage on 30% of dropbacks (4th most), and Pitts has averaged 2.83 YPRR against man on 29 routes this season. The Bengals' linebackers have an F in my coverage grades.
Pitts runs 41% of his routes inline, where Cincinnati has allowed a target on 23% of routes (4th most). He’s a start for me this week (TE13).
Josh Downs and Tyler Warren vs Cowboys Coverage
Dallas has allowed 1.71 YPRR to players aligned in the slot (4th most). Downs runs 69% of his routes there, and Dallas plays single-high coverage on 60% of dropbacks. Downs has averaged 1.68 YPRR against single-high this season and 0.58 against two-high.
Downs is a deeper PPR flex for me (WR42). Warren is my TE7 after drawing 10 targets in his return last week, and Dallas' linebackers have an F in my coverage grades. Warren ran a route on 78% of Indianapolis' dropbacks in that game.
Drew Lock vs Cardinals Pass Defense
Lock is streamable for me (QB16) if he's healthy enough to start against Arizona. He threw for 235 yards and 3 TDs against this defense in Week 2. Arizona has allowed 0.26 EPA per dropback (2nd most) with a pressure rate of 32% (7th lowest).
The Cardinals play two-high coverage on 63% of dropbacks, the highest rate in the league. Lock has averaged 11.54 yards per dropback against those looks in his 26 dropbacks this season. Seattle plans to start him with Sam Darnold out because of a quad injury.
TEP Sicko - Brevyn Spann-Ford if Jake Ferguson Is Out
For my TEP sickos, Spann-Ford is streamable if Ferguson is out with his ankle injury. Spann-Ford ran a route on 74% of Dallas' dropbacks last week and has earned 14 targets on 72 routes with Ferguson off the field. Indianapolis has allowed a target on 21% of routes by inline TEs (9th highest).
Fantasy Football Matchups That Are Tougher in Week 9
Bryce Young and Tetairoa McMillan vs Broncos Defense
I'm sitting Young against Denver. The Broncos have generated pressure on 42% of dropbacks (3rd most), with Carolina allowing pressure on 45% of its own dropbacks. Carolina's pass protection has a D in my grades against Denver's A+ pass rush.
McMillan runs 71% of his routes outside, where Denver has allowed just 1.22 YPRR (5th fewest). The Broncos' outside corners have a B+ in my coverage grades. McMillan is my WR18 this week.
Ashton Jeanty and Mike Washington vs 49ers Run Defense
Washington handled 25 carries last week while Jeanty had just 2. San Francisco has allowed only 2.20 yards after contact per RB carry (fewest in the NFL).
Washington has forced a missed tackle on just 7.7% of his carries, ranking 45th among 47 backs with at least 40 attempts. I'm sitting him here (RB39). I have Jeanty as a low-end RB2 (RB22 in PPR). He's earned 17 targets over his past three games.
Omar Cooper vs Chiefs Coverage
Cooper didn't earn a target on his 26 routes last week. He's drawn just 3 targets on 38 routes with Adonai Mitchell on the field, and I'm leaving him on the bench against Kansas City even if Garrett Wilson does not suit up.
The Chiefs play zone on 74% of their dropbacks. Cooper has averaged 1.00 YPRR on his 42 routes against zone this season. Kansas City has also allowed the lowest target rate to outside receivers at 13%, where Cooper runs about a third of his routes.
Michael Wilson vs Seahawks Two-High Coverage
Seattle plays two-high coverage on 58% of dropbacks (4th most) and Cover 6 on 33% (most in the NFL). Wilson's target rate falls from 33.6% against single-high to 16.2% against two-high this season. He's averaged just 0.92 YPRR on 48 routes against Cover 6.
Wilson earned 7 targets on 18 routes after Arizona changed quarterbacks last week. He's my WR27 against Seattle and is playing through a rib injury.
Makai Lemon and Dallas Goedert With Joe Milton
Philadelphia is turning to Milton against the Giants. The QB passing-yard line has moved from 206.5 with Tanner McKee to 189.5 with Milton, and the Eagles' implied team total has fallen from 18 to 17.5.
The Giants play man coverage on 29% of their dropbacks (6th most). Lemon has averaged just 0.52 YPRR against man this season, and Goedert is at 0.39. New York has also sent at least five rushers on 52% of dropbacks over its past three games (2nd most). Lemon is a desperation flex for me (WR33), and Goedert is my TE12.
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