Fantasy Football Rankings Vs. ADP: Reevaluating Chris Olave And Drake Maye

The Fantasy Life ADP tool is probably my best friend during draft season. It's so important if you're doing multiple drafts to not only have an edge on your leaguemates, but to put yourself in a position to absolutely dominate before the draft even starts.

I talk on SiriusXM a lot about familiarizing yourself with a draft room before you begin because not all ADPs are created equal. We see on Underdog that wide receivers are pushed up the board a lot, but on platforms like ESPN there will be noticeable differences (like Ladd McConkey going 13 picks later). And remember, average draft positions are there as a guide, not a one-for-one on when you should or shouldn't draft someone. Let's get into some big differences I've seen between my rankings and CBS.

Fantasy Football Rankings vs. ADP Comparison

WR Chris Olave, Saints

Kendall Overall Ranking: 62

CBS ADP: 121

One of the big questions for Chris Olave is his health heading into 2025. We have to be cautious about him potentially missing time due to concussions, but is the risk already baked into the cost? On CBS it feels like it is especially. Unfortunately, he was able to play in only eight games last year due to two concussions. The Saints offense is not going to be incredible this season, but Olave gave us back-to-back 1,000+-yard seasons to begin his career. 

His target projection is what will probably keep most drafters interested (like myself). Not only is he being drafted late on CBS, but he is also projected for 115 targets. The Saints brought in Kellen Moore as their new head coach, and we know that his previous offenses have tended to throw to wide receivers at high rates.

Concussions are one thing, but the quarterback play is another. Whether it's Tyler Shough or Spencer Rattler, this will more than likely be one of the worst quarterback situations in the NFL. However, it feels like the risk is baked into Olave's ADP right now and he still has the talent to pay off his ADP.

QB Drake Maye, Patriots

Kendall Overall Ranking: 96

CBS ADP: 151

For everything that the Patriots lacked in 2024, Drake Maye was actually a pleasant surprise for fantasy football. Maye averaged 223 passing yards and 36 rushing yards in 10 complete starts last season and he finished as QB22, averaging 13.6 points per game. 

There's a lot of meat left on the bone for Maye. The Patriots came in dead last among NFL teams in supporting cast rankings—his wide receivers ranked dead last in receiving yards (1,723) last season. So considering that they have not only upgraded their offense, but also hired a more seasoned head coach in Mike Vrabel, things should get better in the passing game.

Then there's the rushing upside. In 2024, Maye averaged 4.9 rushes and 36.3 yards per game, but I'm here to tell you he is an exceptional runner and if he truly gets unleashed this season then we can expect more from him. 

The Patriots upgraded the offensive line and improved the receivers, bringing in Stefon Diggs and drafting Kyle Williams in the third round. New England drafted left tackle Will Campbell with the fourth overall pick of the 2025 NFL Draft. Mike Vrabel took over as head coach and Josh McDaniels is the offensive coordinator.

Quarterbacks who provide rushing yards are desirable in fantasy and most of the top ones go early in drafts. Maye is one of the few going later in drafts.

WR Brandon Aiyuk, 49ers

Kendall Overall Ranking: 121

CBS ADP: 99

I've been more cautious about my exposure to Brandon Aiyuk this offseason. He opened training camp on the active/physically unable to perform list and we really weren't given a timeline for return. Aiyuk is recovering from a torn ACL and MCL he suffered during Week 7, and while we want to hope for the best, we can only take so many risks in drafts.

There's been chatter that Aiyuk may start the season on PUP, which means he would have to miss four games minimum to begin the season. Couple that with the idea that it may take a few extra weeks to see him get back up to game speed, and it just isn't a good recipe right now. 

The 49ers depth chart has lots of question marks, with Deebo Samuel gone to the Commanders, Ricky Pearsall returning to practice from a hamstring injury, and Jauan Jennings “holding in” for a new contract. It's an absolute mess.

Just remember if you do decide to draft Aiyuk that the risk could be baked into the ADP, but you don't want too many potential zeroes on your roster. If you have an IR spot then it is less of a risk, but don't go overboard trying to draft players falling down draft boards because of injuries like Aiyuk or potential suspensions like with Rashee Rice. It's hard to have all those players on the same roster. 

TE Tucker Kraft, Packers

Kendall Overall Ranking: 106

CBS ADP: 130

OK, so Tucker Kraft gave fantasy managers an enjoyable TE16 finish last season and I really like the potential for another good season in 2025. Kraft is a good pick at cost right now because it feels like there's a lot left on the bone for him heading into the 2025 season. The Packers drafted Matthew Golden with their 23rd overall pick, which made him the first receiver they've taken in the first round since 2002. 

But do they truly have an alpha receiver on their team now? Kraft had eye-popping stats last season—unfortunately, Green Bay is 24th in rate of targets to tight ends, but this is my plea to Matt LaFleur to give more opportunities to Kraft. Right now he is 16th in projected targets among tight ends. GIVE US MORE KRAFT!

Premium

Go FantasyLife+

Your league is unique. Your advice should be too. Get personalized tools, rankings, and projections tailored to your fantasy football league settings.

Learn More